📊 A flat Friday after a week of declines
Crude oil ended the week almost unchanged, but the overall balance was negative. North Sea Brent for January delivery stood at $98.32 per barrel, up a marginal 0.03%, while West Texas Intermediate for December rose 0.34% to $90.83. In other words, both benchmarks remain below the psychological $100 threshold, a barrier they fell beneath in recent days.
Why? The market is reading diplomatic signals. According to the office of Qatar’s emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and U.S. President Donald Trump discussed efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East. This was compounded by the U.S. election results, in which Democrats secured both the Senate and the House of Representatives—something several analysts interpret as creating more favorable conditions for an understanding with Iran.
However, nobody is celebrating just yet. Attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz area continue, and carriers are maintaining steep surcharges on freight and crude. In other words, geopolitical risk has cooled, but it hasn’t disappeared.
📈 The numbers worth noting
For the PitbullChain team, three figures sum up the week: first, Brent’s drop below $100; second, the return of crude flows from the Middle East to levels similar to those before the crisis, according to Eurasia Group; and third, Commerzbank’s warning of a possible new escalation between Washington and Tehran, which keeps an invisible floor under prices.
In practice, the oil market is in “wait and see” mode. And in Venezuela, that mode always has consequences.
🔎 Why a $98 barrel shifts the Venezuelan landscape
Venezuela remains an oil-based economy, even though crude’s share of GDP is now much lower than it was two decades ago. Any move in the benchmark has a delayed impact on three fronts: tax revenue from crude sales, the availability of foreign currency to import essential goods, and the Central Bank of Venezuela’s ability to intervene in the foreign exchange market.
When oil prices fall, the flow of dollars tightens. Historically, this has put greater pressure on the parallel exchange rate and left the BCV with less firepower to contain the gap. When crude prices rise, the opposite happens: there is more breathing room, the official and parallel rates tend to converge, and the informal market calms down.
With Brent near $98, the outlook is neither catastrophic nor comfortable. It’s a technical draw that calls for banks and traders to tread carefully.
💰 USDT P2P: the market’s fastest thermometer
If the Venezuelan market has demonstrated anything in recent years, it’s that the price of USDT in bolivars reacts faster than any official announcement. When people sense currency risk, they rush to buy stablecoins. When they sense calm, they sell and take bolivars to cover everyday expenses.
This week, the stabilization of crude prices points to a more balanced P2P market: less panic buying, a relatively steady supply of USDT, and spreads that aren’t surging. But beware: the calm is fragile. A single headline about Hormuz is enough to multiply buy orders within hours.
🛡️ Scenario A: crude keeps falling
If talks progress and Brent settles below $95, it’s reasonable to expect less pressure on the parallel rate, a greater supply of foreign currency, and more competitive P2P prices. In that context, selling USDT to cover expenses in bolivars is no longer a bad idea for many users.
⚠️ Scenario B: Hormuz heats up again
If an incident in the strait pushes crude back above $100, the story changes. Venezuelans tend to react quickly: buying USDT, effectively dollarizing small savings, and P2P prices adjusting upward within minutes. Anyone holding positions in bolivars should keep this in mind.
📖 Read the full article: https://pitbullchain.com/noticias/petroleo-por-debajo-de-100-el-respiro-que-mira-el-p2p-venezolano-837716
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📊 Live rates and analysis at https://pitbullchain.com