The 15-minute candle at 10:30 p.m. sent $COIN straight up from 138.5 to 143.2, with about $7.4 million traded in a single candle—the upper Bollinger Band was still sitting at 141.2, and price ripped more than two points straight through it. Spot moved in tandem, climbing from yesterday’s close of 137.83 to around 142.8, up about 3.6%. Fifteen minutes earlier, futures had first plunged to 137.9; the whole move looked like a shakeout followed by a rally. Open interest built from an afternoon low of about 147,400 contracts to around 151,000 now. Retail long-account ratios stayed pinned between 68% and 69% all day, barely letting up.
The structure is tangled. The benchmark I wrote down on Thursday was this: until open interest contracts back below 135,000, a rebound from 137 to 140 is not a floor. From the weekend through last night, the account ratio only just managed to fall below 70%, but open interest kept building in the opposite direction—today’s afternoon low only touched around 147,400, while the opening surge in volume pushed it back up to 151,000. Large traders’ long positions rose to about 79.3%; the Williams %R plunged to around -3, CCI was about 304, and Stochastic %K around 88. Short-term indicators are flashing overbought, but positions don’t show any real washout. The latest funding rate is about +0.013%, so longs are still paying shorts a small amount.
The mechanics are simple: before the open, price was first dumped to 137.9 to clear out stops; then short covering, piled on top of fresh longs chasing the rally, pushed the leverage that had just been unwound right back up.
On the one-hour chart, Williams %R is around -3, CCI around 304, and the MACD histogram has turned from negative to positive, at about 0.83. The 12-period moving average is around 139.2, while the current price is hovering around 143.8.
For now, I’m treating this move through 143 as an opening surge in a crowded order book. Until open interest falls back below 147,000 contracts and Williams %R moves away from the -3 range, I’m not touching a breakout. These are my personal views.
#COIN #加密股票 $COIN
The structure is tangled. The benchmark I wrote down on Thursday was this: until open interest contracts back below 135,000, a rebound from 137 to 140 is not a floor. From the weekend through last night, the account ratio only just managed to fall below 70%, but open interest kept building in the opposite direction—today’s afternoon low only touched around 147,400, while the opening surge in volume pushed it back up to 151,000. Large traders’ long positions rose to about 79.3%; the Williams %R plunged to around -3, CCI was about 304, and Stochastic %K around 88. Short-term indicators are flashing overbought, but positions don’t show any real washout. The latest funding rate is about +0.013%, so longs are still paying shorts a small amount.
The mechanics are simple: before the open, price was first dumped to 137.9 to clear out stops; then short covering, piled on top of fresh longs chasing the rally, pushed the leverage that had just been unwound right back up.
On the one-hour chart, Williams %R is around -3, CCI around 304, and the MACD histogram has turned from negative to positive, at about 0.83. The 12-period moving average is around 139.2, while the current price is hovering around 143.8.
For now, I’m treating this move through 143 as an opening surge in a crowded order book. Until open interest falls back below 147,000 contracts and Williams %R moves away from the -3 range, I’m not touching a breakout. These are my personal views.
#COIN #加密股票 $COIN
