Why Bitcoin is struggling to rise
According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, around $707 billion invested in $BTC is currently at a loss, while only $380 billion is in profit. The metric is updated once a day and reflects the average volume of funds in actual $BTC coins, excluding futures, broken down into profitable and loss-making positions.
According to Darkfost, it is precisely this imbalance that is holding prices back. The more such positions there are, the stronger the selling pressure becomes every time prices rise.
The analyst acknowledges that after a prolonged downturn, the wait feels long. In his view, it will take the market several months to bring most of the capital back into profit.
Without this, Darkfost emphasized, the market will not experience a full-fledged rally. For investors, this means that betting on a rapid surge in BTC prices is risky: the market will most likely recover gradually, as coins move from loss-making sellers to new buyers at lower prices.
What factors could speed up or slow down the recovery
Recent market participants are now closest to being at a loss: according to CryptoQuant, the average price they paid for $BTC over the past one to three months was $77,140 as of November 1, with the price at around $77,880. If prices fall below that level, their investments will also be in the red, adding to the pressure Darkfost warns about.
There are still no signs of a quick rebound in the Bitcoin network. The 30-day average number of active addresses has fallen to 629,000, 43% below its December 2024 peak. With activity this weak, demand capable of buying coins from holders of loss-making positions could remain sluggish for a long time.
Carson Group strategist Ryan Detrick calculated that the S&P 500 has always risen in November during midterm election years, following a weak October, gaining an average of 4.5%, although the sample since 1950 is small—just five instances. The index fell in October 2026, and a stock market rally typically makes investors more willing to take risks, potentially bringing closer the point when most BTC investments return to profit.