Good morning, everyone. I never expected to wake up, check the markets, and find that the market had suddenly fallen so sharply. Then I checked the news and learned that Binance had suffered a major security incident in the early hours of the morning, with large, unusual outflows of assets from multiple hot wallets involving dozens of tokens across several blockchains.
Based on the information available so far, large, unusual transfers from Binance-related wallets began at around 4:24 a.m. today. Some on-chain firms estimate that more than $5.5 billion in assets were involved, though the exact amount of losses has yet to be confirmed.
Binance has responded, saying that user funds are safe and that the platform will cover the losses related to the hack. Around $2.54 billion in related assets have also been frozen. However, the incident is still under investigation, and how much can be recovered remains to be seen.
This incident has further intensified market panic. Major cryptocurrencies such as BTC, ETH, and SOL have all fallen, with many altcoins posting even steeper losses.
As of around 9:46 a.m. today, BTC had fallen to around $76,900, reaching an intraday low of $76,611. ETH was around $2,200, while SOL had retreated to around $93.8.
My outlook for the broader market today: There is still a risk of further short-term declines, but I think a volatile rebound could also follow the sharp drop.
Why do I say that?
First, in addition to the market’s own weakness, this drop was also driven by Binance’s sudden security incident. Panic was concentrated and quickly released over a short period, causing the broader market to fall rapidly. As the panic gradually subsides, however, the market often sees a rebound to some extent.
Second, Binance has said it will cover the related losses, and a large amount of suspicious assets has already been frozen. If the security issue is brought under control, that should help restore market confidence to some degree.
That said, I don’t think we can conclude that the broader market has bottomed out just yet. The incident is still unfolding, and there is still a risk of further short-term declines. As for spot trading, I actually think that after this rapid drop, some major coins have entered price ranges worth watching. I’ve also gradually bought some spot assets, but I won’t rush to fill my positions all at once. I’ll continue to build them gradually.
Today’s Market Analysis
BTC: It has now fallen below $77,000, reaching a low of $76,611, and the short-term trend is clearly weak. Today, watch the $76,600–$77,000 range. If the price gradually stabilizes and regains the $77,000–$78,000 range, it may rebound toward around $79,000–$80,000 in the short term.
Conversely, if $76,600 gives way, the next support to watch is around $76,000.
ETH: It is currently around $2,200 and is similarly weak in the short term. Today, the key level to watch is whether it can hold $2,200. If it stabilizes gradually, the first short-term rebound target is $2,280–$2,300. If $2,200 breaks decisively and the price cannot quickly recover it, the risk of further declines remains.
SOL: It has now retreated to around $93.8 and is relatively weak overall. The key level to watch on the downside today is around $93. If it stabilizes there, it could rebound to $96–$97 in the short term. However, SOL’s recent rebounds have been limited, so spot positions should still be kept under control.
A final word on my personal view
This Binance security incident has certainly dealt a significant blow to the market. But for me, panic-driven declines are not necessarily all bad; sometimes they can present spot buying opportunities worth watching.
Of course, opportunities and risks go hand in hand. For the broader market today, I’m inclined to watch for a volatile rebound after the sharp drop, but I don’t think the market has truly bottomed out yet. Next, the key things to watch are developments in the Binance incident and whether BTC can regain the $77,000–$78,000 range. For spot trading, I’ll continue to build positions gradually and manage position sizes, rather than making a large one-time purchase just because prices have suddenly fallen.
The more fearful the market becomes, the more important it is to stay calm.