陌路英雄

Wishing everyone a happy weekend here ♥️

A few days ago, I just created the Binance chat room

You can click ⬇️ to join the group directly 😁

陌路社区

With the increasing regulation of the cryptocurrency market in China, many brothers and sisters have been unable to freely discuss market trends and contract positions. I myself also hesitate to talk too much about cryptocurrency topics on WeChat, fearing that I might get restricted or even permanently banned, as I have experienced being banned before, which makes it even more poignant for me 🥹

Thus, Binance has this chat room, which serves as a platform for us who love trading cryptocurrencies to communicate and share anytime, anywhere. We should really thank Binance for this 🙏

Some friends have known me for several years, and of course, many others are still getting to know me. I believe that meeting in the cryptocurrency world is a kind of fate. Personally, I also enjoy communicating and sharing with more friends, as we all share a common interest (making money), right? Let’s achieve our little goals early 🎯

If everyone sees the time I registered on Binance, you must know that I have been involved in this for quite a while. Here’s a brief introduction about myself again:

I entered the cryptocurrency world in 2018, and since January 2021, I have been doing live broadcasts, focusing on analyzing mainstream cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH, both spot and contracts. As for what strategies I excel at, I can only say that I like to trade based on actual market conditions 😁

Live broadcast time: Monday to Friday at 7 PM, with a duration of 1 hour. I take breaks on weekends and holidays (the market often consolidates on weekends).

Market update time: Monday to Friday mornings. I can’t provide an accurate time because my wake-up time is uncertain. Occasionally, I summarize updates on Saturdays.

Whether in a bull or bear market, I have been deeply cultivating the market. I look forward to communicating with more like-minded friends and working hard together. I don’t have many hobbies; my biggest hobby is tasting various teas and trading cryptocurrencies.

Many old friends have said that I am patient and optimistic during my live broadcasts. Why do I stay in the cryptocurrency world and continue to broadcast? Have I already achieved wealth?

In summary: I love this industry, and I treat the market as a career. My little goals are still on the way.
#BTC

Good morning, everyone. Let’s briefly recap the market from last night to now.

Market sentiment has shifted back toward caution. On one hand, ahead of the U.S. inflation data release, everyone is reluctant to make bold bets in advance; on the other hand, the situation between the U.S. and Iran, as well as the Strait of Hormuz, continues to see ups and downs. Oil prices are still trending higher, which has once again made the market worry about inflation pressure.

At the moment, the broader market has pulled back slightly. BTC is hovering around $64,000, and overall it’s still trading in a range-bound, sideways consolidation. ETH and SOL have also pulled back somewhat, though SOL has been relatively more resilient.

Last night, BTC rebounded to around 65,400 but failed to hold above that level. It then quickly dropped back to the 63,800 area, suggesting that sell pressure remains fairly evident above 65,000. For now, the market is mainly waiting for tomorrow night’s CPI data release.

Previously, U.S. employment data came in weak, and the market had some expectation of further rate cuts. But if this CPI prints higher than expected, rate-cut expectations could cool down again, and U.S. Treasury yields may continue rising. Conversely, if the inflation data is relatively mild, there would be a chance to provide fresh upside momentum for the broader market. So until the data truly lands, price action is likely to remain fairly choppy.

As for the U.S.-Iran situation, it’s fallen back into a stalemate again. The underlying differences haven’t been truly resolved—especially the outlook for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, which is still unstable. If the situation keeps repeating, it can easily push oil prices higher further, adding again to market worries about inflation. That’s not good news for either the broader market or U.S. stocks.

So for today, in my view, the broader market will likely continue with mild consolidation, with the bias slightly weaker. Since the recent trading range has been relatively small, futures are more suitable for intraday short-term trading.

Key short-term levels to watch:

BTC: around 63,000 on the downside
ETH: around 1,840 on the downside
SOL: around 75.5 on the downside

Before the CPI is released, the market will most likely stay in a wait-and-see mode. After the data comes out, we’ll see whether the broader market truly turns decisively.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #solana

Good morning everyone. A new week is here~

Last Friday’s U.S. employment data unexpectedly weakened. July nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, and market concerns about further rate hikes have eased a bit. The U.S. stock market performed well, but Bitcoin has still been hovering around 65,000 since late Saturday and hasn’t shown any clear breakout or follow-through.

This week’s most critical thing for BTC is whether it can truly hold above 65,000. If it breaks out with higher volume, there would be a chance to look toward the 68,000–70,000 area. On the downside, the first area to watch is roughly 60,000–62,000. Personally, I still think this is a range-bound market for now, and it’s not advisable to rush into chasing above 65,000.

As for liquidity, the picture is actually more positive than price action. As of August 7, over the past five trading days, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have cumulatively net flowed in about $853 million, while Ethereum ETFs have seen net inflows of about $245 million. Continued ETF re-accumulation can provide support under the market. But with such明显 inflows, BTC still hasn’t managed a breakout for a long time—so for now, we can’t conclude that a new leg of one-directional upside has already started.

Also, keep an eye on the Middle East developments. Iran and Oman have nearly completed arrangements regarding the Strait of Hormuz, but the shipping lanes have not yet reopened. As long as this issue isn’t truly resolved, oil prices and risk-aversion sentiment may continue to swing back and forth.

In addition, this week’s key focus is U.S. CPI and PPI data, which could directly affect market expectations for future monetary policy.

What to watch today in the short term:

BTC: Resistance around 66,000
ETH: Resistance around 1,940
SOL: Resistance around 78

Before the broader market truly turns, my personal view is to stick with observing and focusing on intraday trading setups for the time being.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #solana

Good morning, everyone~

It’s Friday today—another week is almost over.

Looking at this week’s overall market trend, the weekly chart is still following the previous narrow-range consolidation. Overall volatility remains low, and both bulls and bears are fairly cautious.

The reason is also quite clear: the market is mainly waiting to see how the situation between the US and Iran develops. Just now, news showed that Oman is pushing a framework for a temporary agreement, aiming to establish a new shipping lane between routes controlled by Iran and Oman. Trump also said the US is taking part in the relevant negotiations, and that things are progressing well.

After the news came out, risk-averse sentiment eased somewhat. Oil prices continued to face pressure, and risk assets received some near-term support.

However, at this point, it doesn’t look like the US-Iran side has seen a clear agreement actually taking shape. So the market is still mostly trading on the “expectation that tensions will ease.” Going forward, developments will need to be watched closely. After all, Trump’s policy changes can be quite fast, and any new statements later on could affect market sentiment.

And the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data to be released tonight is also a key focus for the market. If employment data shows a significant change, it may further influence the market’s判断 about the Federal Reserve’s policy direction.

On the capital flow side, in the latest trading day, crypto ETFs saw total net inflows of about $23.65 million, of which MSBT accounted for $14.9 million in a single day. Over the past 5 trading days, crypto ETFs recorded total net inflows of about $499 million—suggesting that institutional sentiment in recent times has improved compared with earlier periods, and the market’s ability to absorb trades has also strengthened.

At present, BTC is still in a consolidation phase and hasn’t shown a clear direction yet. Therefore, ETH and SOL overall are similar as well. For contract trading, our current thinking remains unchanged—for now, until the market truly turns, continue using an intraday short-term strategy.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #solana #伊朗阿曼达成霍尔木兹航线协议

Good morning everyone~

Over the past two days, we still need to keep a close watch on developments related to the Iran–U.S. situation. Yesterday, Trump said that the Iran–U.S. issue could reach a result within 48 hours, and he also mentioned that the Strait of Hormuz may reopen as early as Wednesday or Thursday this week. After the news was released, market risk-off sentiment eased noticeably. International oil prices continued to come under pressure and fell further, while U.S. stocks and other risk assets received some support.

Of course, the market is still waiting and watching for updates, because the two sides have not yet announced any official agreement. What the market is trading more is the expectation of “a further easing of tensions,” not that the risk has been fully eliminated.

If the negotiations can proceed smoothly, pressure on crude oil would decline further. That would be a positive for risk assets such as Bitcoin. But if the talks see another round of setbacks, funds could still flow back into safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar and gold.

In recent days, Trump has continued to send signals expressing hope that the Iran issue can be resolved through negotiations. However, his policy style can change quickly, so the market still needs to watch for his specific subsequent statements—especially whether the Strait of Hormuz truly returns to normal passage.

And from the intraday price action, although Bitcoin rebounded and even briefly touched 65,000, it failed to hold effectively. This suggests that capital and market sentiment remain fairly cautious. The market is still waiting for new catalysts, including changes in interest-rate-cut expectations, U.S. economic data, and institutional capital flows.

In the ETF sector, total net inflows over the past five trading days were about $479 million, indicating that institutional money has started to return recently. Market confidence has improved compared with the earlier period. However, ETF fund inflows today do not necessarily mean the trend has fully reversed. For Bitcoin to open up further upside space, it still needs to see trading volume expand and the price effectively break through key resistance levels.

Therefore, today remains choppy with a slight rebound bias. Whether it can effectively break above and hold 65,000, forming a new upward trend, still needs to be monitored.

Personally, today’s focus:
BTC: watch support around 63,500,
ETH: watch support around 1,880;
SOL: watch support around 73.

Overall, the easing of the Iran–U.S. situation provides some support for market sentiment, and institutional capital has started to improve. But for the market to truly strengthen, it still depends on sustained inflows of capital and a break through key levels.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #solana

Good morning, everyone. Let’s briefly talk about the market from last night to now. Progress has emerged in the U.S.-Iran negotiations, and the navigation issue in the Strait of Hormuz may see a breakthrough. Risk-off sentiment has eased somewhat. U.S. stocks have continued to rise, with the S&P 500 and the Dow making new record closes. International oil prices, however, have clearly fallen. This news is generally favorable for risk assets, but the crypto market’s reaction hasn’t been very strong, suggesting everyone remains relatively cautious.

Bitcoin is currently around $64,100. It bounced as high as above $64,500 last night, but soon fell back into its range. ETH is around $1,868, and SOL is around $73.8—both are basically flat, with no obvious signs of a breakout with increasing volume, so we still need to wait.

As for the U.S. and Iran, we shouldn’t be too optimistic too early. Although Trump said an agreement is close to being reached, Iran’s stance isn’t entirely consistent. There have also been reports of attacks on ships near the strait. As long as the final agreement isn’t actually in place, the situation in the Middle East could swing back at any time, and oil prices and risk assets may also move quickly. Last night, U.S. stocks performed much stronger than Bitcoin, which suggests traditional markets are responding more positively to the news, while crypto capital is still watching from the sidelines.

From the chart, for the near term the broader market is likely to hover around 63,000. As long as it doesn’t effectively break down below that level, we’ll likely see range-bound movement for now. If it drops back below 63,000, we should continue to pay attention to the area around 61,500. On the upside, watch around 65,000 as well. 65,000 is an important battleground level for both bulls and bears—only if the bulls can truly hold above 65,000 effectively will the rebound gain more strength and potentially usher in the next wave of momentum.

Personally, I think the broader market will mainly continue to trade sideways today. The futures strategy remains unchanged: just focus on intraday short-term fluctuations. Going forward, besides the outcome of the U.S.-Iran talks, we also need to pay attention to U.S. employment data this coming Friday, which will affect market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s rate policy.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #solana

Good morning, everyone. Let’s briefly talk about the market developments from last night to now. There are signs of easing in the situation between Iran and the U.S.; oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields have pulled back. U.S. stocks have rebounded strongly, but Bitcoin has only risen slightly, suggesting that buyers in the crypto market remain relatively cautious. For now, it’s more suitable to view the market as range-bound rather than chase the upside just because offshore markets are rallying.

Trump delayed military action against Iran, and the market is also waiting to see further progress on subsequent talks. As a result, international oil prices have fallen to around $80.8, with a daily drop of more than 4%. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury has declined to about 4.69%. Last night, the S&P 500 rose 1.48%, the Nasdaq gained 2.13%, and the Dow increased 1.32%. Softer geopolitical news and falling oil prices help with controlling inflation and stabilizing market sentiment, but these positives have not fully transmitted to the crypto market yet.

Bitcoin is currently around $63,600. It’s up about 0.6% over the past 24 hours, briefly dipping to $62,300 before reclaiming $63,000. ETH is around $1,860, and SOL is around $73.3—both are relatively unchanged. This indicates that the current rebound is still mainly led by Bitcoin; ETH and SOL have not clearly kept up. The market sentiment index also remains in the extreme fear zone, so it’s still too early to conclude that the broader market has turned bullish.

In the short term, focus first on the $62,000 area. As long as it does not clearly break down again, Bitcoin still has a chance to test $64,000 repeatedly for the time being. The key level that truly needs to be broken is around $65,000. Especially after it can effectively hold above $65,000, there’s a better chance that upside room will open further. If $62,000 is lost, then watch the $60,000 area. Personally, chasing at the current position generally offers mediocre risk-reward; it’s more appropriate to wait for confirmation at key levels, and don’t open futures positions too heavily.

Today, keep an eye on the Iran-U.S. negotiations and Trump’s latest statements. Later this week, there will be U.S. services sector data and the employment report, and these figures will affect the market’s expectations for Fed rate cuts. My view is: for now, the broader market is still mainly range-bound. The U.S. stock rebound provides some support to the market, but the crypto market itself still needs stronger buy-side participation.

As long as the Iran-U.S. news does not deteriorate further, it should remain mostly short-term intraday trading. The key focus is whether the broader market can effectively hold above $65,000.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #solana

A new week, a new beginning~

In one sentence: The US-Iran situation has temporarily eased, but market sentiment and institutional capital remain cautious. This week, we will mainly focus on US employment data.

The market’s current focus is still centered on the US-Iran situation and comments related to Donald Trump. Trump said the US will temporarily hold off on further military action against Iran, and hopes to resolve the issues surrounding passage through the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program through negotiations. Both sides are expected to begin another round of communication.

Driven by this news, international oil prices have clearly fallen, and risk-averse sentiment has cooled somewhat. In the short term, it has provided some support to risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Personally, I believe that the US and Iran have not yet reached any substantive agreement. Trump’s policy stance could shift at any time, and there is still a risk of the situation in the Middle East escalating again. Therefore, although market sentiment has improved somewhat, it has not truly turned optimistic.

On the capital flows side, over the past five trading days, crypto ETFs saw total outflows of USD 68.4445 million, indicating that institutional capital is still mainly de-risking and reducing positions in the short term. For now, there has been no clear sign of sustained buying pressure.

While easing geopolitical risk can improve market sentiment, given the backdrop of continued ETF outflows, Bitcoin’s room to rise in the short term may still be limited. The price action is more likely to remain volatile and choppy rather than break into a clear one-way uptrend.

This week, key items to watch include the US ADP employment data and the nonfarm payroll report, and continue to monitor progress in US-Iran negotiations.

If US employment data cools, it may increase market expectations for easier monetary policy, which would support Bitcoin. If employment data is significantly stronger than market expectations, it could push the US dollar and US Treasury yields higher, continuing to weigh on the crypto market.

For this week’s overall market trend, unless the US-Iran talks achieve a substantive breakthrough—giving both sides a genuine opportunity to reach an agreement and cool the situation—based on the current circumstances, it is still difficult for peace to be realized in the near term.

I believe the overall market this week will mainly trade in a range. During the period, headline news may trigger quick rallies or selloffs.

Today, the market is expected to be mostly choppy and sideways with a slight weakness. In the short term, watch BTC around 61,500, ETH around 1,800, and SOL around 70.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #solana #特朗普取消打击伊朗待协议

Good morning, everyone. Today is Friday, and it’s also the last day of July.

Last night, risk assets saw a clear rebound overall. The latest U.S. inflation data came in softer. In June, headline PCE year-on-year eased from 4.1% to 3.7%, while core PCE edged down from 3.4% to 3.3%.

That said, the overall decline in inflation was driven largely by falling energy prices. Core inflation is still above the Fed’s 2% target, so there remains disagreement in the market about the path of monetary policy going forward.

In equities, Microsoft’s earnings were strong, with the stock rising more than 15% in a single day, lifting the Nasdaq, the S&P 500, and the semiconductor sector as a whole. In early trading today, tech stocks in Japan and South Korea also saw a sharp recovery, suggesting that risk appetite has genuinely warmed up in the short term.

However, it’s worth noting that this rebound looks more like a sentiment repair after the sharp selloff earlier, not proof that market risk has been fully resolved. Volatility in traditional stocks and derivatives has been extremely high recently. AI hedge fund Situational Awareness suffered severe losses due to high leverage investments and was forced to sell most of its public stock portfolio. This indicates that if the market’s direction is misjudged, highly leveraged capital is still prone to concentrated forced liquidations.

In the crypto market, Strategy reported a net loss of about $8.2 billion in the second quarter, mainly from paper losses caused by the decline in the price of its Bitcoin holdings. Compared with the headline accounting loss in the earnings report, what I care more about is its recent actual actions.

Strategy has now gone multiple weeks without continuing to buy Bitcoin and has sold around $216 million worth of BTC to pay for preferred stock dividends and to replenish cash reserves. At the same time, the company still retains a plan to liquidate up to $1.25 billion worth of BTC.

This means that Strategy, which has been continuously providing buy-side support to the market, has shifted from only buying to prioritizing cash flow and debt management. In the short term, this will likely weaken expectations of continuous institutional buying, and it could also create some pressure above the BTC price.

Looking back at the chart, Bitcoin is still trading in a range around $65,000. The rebound in U.S. stocks and Asian markets provides some support to crypto sentiment, but Strategy’s coin sales, ETF outflows at various stages, and the risk of deleveraging in the market will still limit upside space in the near term.

Personally, I think today the broader market will remain range-bound with a slight upward bias.
BTC: watch around 64,000
ETH: watch around 1,880
SOL: watch around 73
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #solana

Good morning, everyone.

Last night’s biggest news was the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate meeting. The final result matched market expectations: the benchmark rate was kept unchanged, so the overall market reaction after the announcement wasn’t particularly significant.

However, what’s really worth paying attention to isn’t the rate itself, but the Fed chair’s subsequent remarks. Based on the tone of the statements, the Federal Reserve did not signal a clear rate-cut path. Instead, it repeatedly emphasized that the policy direction will still be determined by incoming economic data, suggesting that the Fed remains cautious about inflation for now. This has also cooled market expectations for rate cuts within the year. For risk assets to break out of a sustained upward trend in the short term, the difficulty remains high.

As for the Middle East, there have been no new escalations in the situation between the U.S. and Iran. Trump said that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are still being advanced, but he also stressed that if the talks fail to achieve substantive progress, the U.S. still retains the possibility of taking further action. In other words, geopolitical risk hasn’t truly been lifted, and the market continues to stay somewhat on guard.

In addition, the state of liquidity is also worth watching. Over the past five trading days, crypto ETFs recorded cumulative net outflows of about $682 million, indicating that some institutional capital in recent days has still been focused on controlling risk and reducing positions. Short-term market sentiment therefore remains relatively cautious.

Back to the price action: Bitcoin is still maintaining daily-level consolidation. Compared with the past few days, the overall走势 is slightly stronger, but it has yet to break through a key resistance level, which suggests that overhead selling pressure remains. Unless there is a new positive catalyst, I believe the market will likely continue to trade in a range, and it’s best to be patient and wait for a directional move.

Today, watch a few key levels:

BTC: watch resistance around $66,000;

ETH: watch resistance around $1,960;

SOL: watch resistance around $76.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #solana

Good morning, everyone.

The main focus of the current market is centered on the progress of the U.S.-Iran negotiations and the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision.

Trump said that both sides in the U.S.-Iran talks are conducting “good negotiations.” The related news drove international oil prices to fall in the short term. Geopolitical risk has eased temporarily, which has also helped relieve the safe-haven pressure in the crypto market.

As for the Fed, the market currently estimates a 69.5% probability that this meeting will keep interest rates unchanged, and a 30.5% probability of a 25-basis-point hike. In addition, Tommen Securities believes that if the Fed chooses to stay put, the U.S. dollar could weaken in the short term.

Therefore, tonight, the market needs to pay close attention to the U.S. rate decision to be released at 2:00 a.m., as well as the subsequent remarks by Fed Chair Waller. Compared with the rate outcome itself, the policy signals conveyed in Waller’s speech may be even more important—including whether further rate hikes are still possible, the assessment of inflation, and the direction of future monetary policy.

Personally, I believe the Fed will most likely keep rates unchanged this time. If there is an unexpected hike, risk assets may face further pressure and pull back.

Before the results are released, it’s advisable to remain on the sidelines and wait until the policy signals become clear before deciding on the next trading direction, to avoid chasing or selling aggressively just before the news lands.

From the current market picture, the overall room for large fluctuations appears limited, suggesting that market funds are still waiting for the news to be released. It’s expected that during the daytime today, the market will most likely continue to trade in a range. Therefore, it’s recommended to focus on intraday short-term trading strategies.

From the daily chart structure, BTC has been maintaining a sideways range recently. For the short term, support around $62,000 remains in focus. ETH’s daily performance has been relatively stronger than the broader market; for the short term, watch the area around $1,850. SOL’s daily chart is still in a sideways-to-downward channel and overall performance is weak. In the short term, continue to watch support near $70.5.

After tonight’s news is released, market volatility may increase significantly. Everyone, please make sure to control your position sizing and manage risk.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #solana

The focus in the current market remains concentrated on the U.S.-Iran situation and expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy.

Trump said that the U.S. is conducting deep negotiations with Iran, but there is not much time left for Iran. If the negotiations ultimately break down, the U.S. does not rule out taking military action again. For the market, once the U.S.-Iran situation escalates again, it may push international oil prices higher, while also driving up risk-averse sentiment—putting some pressure on both U.S. stocks and the crypto market.

As for the Federal Reserve, Citi believes the market is currently underestimating the risk of further rate hikes. Grayscale, meanwhile, said that as long as the Fed does not continue raising rates, Bitcoin may already be close to a stage bottom. Overall, macro news remains mixed in both bullish and bearish directions, and the market currently lacks a clear direction.

Next, let’s look at fund flows. On July 27, crypto ETFs recorded a total net outflow of $4.7 million. Among them, BSOL had a net inflow of $1.0 million, while FBTC had a net outflow of $2.8 million. Over the past five trading days, crypto ETFs累计 recorded a cumulative net outflow of about $128 million, suggesting that institutional capital remains relatively cautious in the short term, with risk-aversion and de-risking sentiment relatively evident.

Returning to the price action: currently, at the daily level, the broader market is still in a choppy but weaker state. According to the liquidation map over the past 24 hours, short liquidation zones are relatively concentrated above BTC, ETH, and SOL. The current price action is still dominated by bearish sentiment, and overall the market remains pessimistic.

In the short term, it is important to watch for the risk that the broader market accelerates further downward. Today, key levels to watch: BTC around $62,000, ETH around $1,830, and SOL around $70.5. If these levels can hold, the market may continue to stay in a range-bound period. If there is an effective breakdown, the weak short-term trend could persist further.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #solana

Good morning everyone. Let’s first take a look at some news this weekend so far that’s worth paying attention to.

First, let’s look at the situation between the US and Iran. Both sides have not further expanded military operations. Trump has paused a new round of airstrikes against Iran, and the US said it hopes to leave room for diplomatic talks. Iran has also responded that as long as the US continues to stop attacks, Iran will pause retaliatory actions as well. At present, multiple parties including Oman are still actively mediating, and communication between the two sides remains ongoing, but there’s still some distance before the underlying disagreements are truly resolved.

As a result, market risk-off sentiment has clearly cooled. International oil prices fell more than 5% at one point on Monday, and US stock index futures rebounded in sync. This suggests that capital is starting to refocus on risk assets again, but this is more of a sentiment rebound and does not mean geopolitical risks have been completely eliminated. Core issues such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Iran nuclear problem still remain, so ongoing monitoring is still needed.

Now let’s talk about the crypto market. Bitcoin still hasn’t broken out of its trading range. Since July, on the weekly timeframe it has largely stayed sideways, with neither bulls nor bears gaining a clear advantage. What the market is truly waiting for is not the US-Iran situation, but several more important developments this week.

This week, the US Federal Reserve will release its latest interest rate decision. At the same time, tech giants such as Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will also gradually publish earnings reports. Whether it’s the Fed’s guidance on future policy, or the companies’ performance and their AI-related capital expenditure, all of these could directly affect the near-term direction of US stocks and the crypto market.

So personally, I think uncertainty in the market remains relatively high this week. Before key news is finalized, the broader market will most likely remain choppy, and in terms of trading, it’s more suitable to focus on intraday short-term setups.

Technical levels to watch:

BTC: Continue to watch support around $63,500. If it can hold, the sideways pattern is likely to continue. If it breaks below, then you’ll need to watch for a new support area beneath it.
ETH: Recent price action has been clearly stronger than BTC. In the short term, focus on support around $1,900. As long as this level holds, there is still a chance for the overall trend to strengthen further.
SOL: In the short term, watch support around $74. As long as key levels are not lost, the overall bias remains a bit more bullish despite consolidation.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #solana

Good morning everyone. It’s Friday today—let’s take a look at the notable news from last night that’s worth paying attention to.

At present, the biggest factor affecting the market is still the situation in the Middle East. In recent days, Trump has once again sent a tough signal, saying he is seriously considering launching a larger-scale military strike against Iran, which he says is now close to a decision.

There are also divisions within the United States. The Senate rejected a resolution that would limit Trump’s war powers against Iran, while the House of Representatives passed a similar resolution. This means that within the U.S., voices differ on whether to further expand military action—but Trump still has considerable room for decision-making going forward.

Iran has also maintained a tough stance. It has rejected the ceasefire proposal put forward by the United States and claimed that it carried out attacks on U.S. military facilities located in Jordan and Kuwait. Iran also announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and strict limits on passage through it. Currently, shipping volume through the strait has fallen noticeably, but it has not been completely interrupted—so it still needs ongoing monitoring.

The U.S. tariff policy has also seen new developments. The U.S. announced a new round of tariff measures affecting certain trading partners. If major economies subsequently take retaliatory actions, global trade frictions may further escalate, which could affect business costs, global supply chains, and market risk appetite.

For the market, what we’re facing right now is a situation where geopolitical risk and disruptions from trade policy exist at the same time. The Middle East situation impacts crude oil prices and safe-haven sentiment, while tariff policies may further push up inflation expectations—meaning there is still significant uncertainty around what the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy might be in the future.

Now let’s look at Bitcoin. It is still trading in a range around $65,000, with limited rebound strength. Market funds overall are mostly in a wait-and-see mode. From the price action, the continued sideways movement suggests that neither bulls nor bears have gained a clear advantage for the moment—but the longer the range persists, the higher the probability of a move downward afterward. Given that the macro environment still has many uncertainties, if a key support level is broken, investors should remain alert to the risk of further pullbacks in the short term.

In my view, today’s overall market remains mainly weak and range-bound. Key levels to watch:
BTC: around 63,500
ETH: around 1,820
SOL: around 73.5
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #solana

Good morning, everyone. First, let’s look at the news from today’s market that’s worth paying attention to.

Last night’s market news continued to focus on the situation in the Middle East, Federal Reserve policy, and the flow of funds in the crypto market. Overall, market sentiment remains cautious, and Bitcoin is still in a range-bound consolidation phase.

First, the Middle East situation: The U.S. military has again carried out airstrikes on military targets in Iran. Trump also said that if Iran attacks merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. will directly strike important infrastructure inside Iran, and may even take action against underground nuclear facilities. Iran responded that if the conflict escalates, it would affect Gulf oil transportation and target related energy infrastructure.

At present, both sides are still mainly relying on mutual deterrence, but the Middle East remains the biggest risk point for global markets. If transportation through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, rising oil prices could push up global inflation, putting pressure on both the stock market and the crypto market.

On the macro front: The latest CME data shows that expectations for the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points in July have rebounded. Higher rates may be maintained for a longer period. However, Grayscale believes that as long as the Fed ends its rate hikes and the U.S. economy remains stable, Bitcoin should still be considered promising in the long term.

On the policy side, there’s good news. The U.S. Senate has released an updated version of the “CLARITY Act,” further clarifying the regulatory framework for crypto assets and protecting individuals’ rights to self-custody wallets. This is a positive signal for the industry’s long-term development.

In terms of capital flows: In recent days, Bitcoin spot ETFs have resumed net inflows. Over the past five trading days, cumulative inflows have approached 800 million dollars. Funds have mainly gone to Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF products, suggesting institutions are still continuously positioning for core assets rather than exiting the market.

Turning back to price action: For now, the broader market and major coins such as Ethereum remain range-bound, with no clear breakout signals.

For trading, the suggestion is:
Today, focus mainly on short-term or intraday swing trading.
Control position sizes and set take-profit and stop-loss levels.
Pay close attention to the Middle East situation, changes in Fed policy, and whether ETF capital inflows continue.

One-sentence summary:
Good and bad news coexist. Institutional funds are still flowing in, but the market hasn’t truly moved out yet. At this stage, patience matters more than frequent trading.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #solana

Good morning, everyone. Let’s first take a look at the situation between Iran and the US.

A couple of days ago, US forces were hit by drone and missile attacks in Jordan and Iraq, resulting in casualties. Trump then said that Iran would pay a higher price for this. Shortly after, the US launched another round of airstrikes against Iran, and it has now been the 10th consecutive day of military action.

Meanwhile, the White House is assessing whether to further expand its strikes against Iran. If tensions continue to escalate, the scope of strikes could expand from around the Strait of Hormuz to targets near Tehran, and even Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Shipping risks are also rising. The Houthis announced restrictions on Red Sea shipping toward Saudi Arabia, forcing some commercial vessels entering and departing Iranian ports to reroute. If passage through the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz is further disrupted, crude oil transport, shipping costs, and energy prices could all be affected.

Driven by geopolitical developments, the three major US stock indexes fell for the third consecutive trading day. Bitcoin has also been under pressure, but its overall decline has been limited. It remains range-bound, without any clear breakdown.

Now let’s look at institutional flows: According to CoinGlass data, on the latest trading day, crypto ETFs recorded total net inflows of about $119 million. Of this, the Bitcoin ETF accounted for net inflows of about $110.3 million, which is the main source of this round of inflows.

Over the past five trading days, crypto ETFs have accumulated net inflows of roughly $745 million. This suggests that although the Iran–US situation remains tense, institutional money has not clearly pulled out, and there is still some support under the market.

From the trend, the overall market structure has not been broken for now, and it still looks like a choppy upward move. If tensions between Iran and the US cool down, the market may have a chance to rebound further. If the conflict expands, short-term volatility is likely to increase as well.

As for today’s market, my personal bias is still toward a rise—specifically, a slow upward trend within a consolidation/range.

Short-term to watch:

Resistance for BTC around $67,000

Resistance for ETH around $1,970

Resistance for SOL around $80
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #solana

Good morning, everyone. A new week is here.

First, let’s take a look at what’s worth paying attention to in the markets from the weekend up to today.

The situation in the Middle East remains the biggest variable for the current market. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have not eased, U.S. military action against Iran is still ongoing, and security concerns in the Strait of Hormuz continue to keep global markets on edge. Geopolitical risk has yet to cool down, driving risk-averse sentiment higher. As a result, safe-haven assets such as gold and crude oil are getting attention, while risk assets like U.S. stocks and the crypto market continue to face pressure.

In the technology sector, last week’s performance was relatively weak for semiconductors overall, and many chip stocks saw noticeable pullbacks. However, from an industry perspective, AI investment has not slowed down. For example, TSMC has continued to expand its U.S. factory investment, and tech giants such as Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon are set to release their earnings reports by the end of this month. What the market cares about most is whether they will continue to increase AI-related capital expenditures. If capital spending keeps growing, it would still be a positive signal for the entire tech sector.

Now let’s look at the crypto market:
Although the broader market has been fairly quiet recently, institutional capital has not clearly pulled out. Over the past five trading days, crypto ETFs have continued to see net inflows, with total inflows of about $181 million. This suggests institutional money is still generally inclined to buy the dips, and there hasn’t been a large-scale exit.

Overall, the market is still in a consolidation phase and has not truly entered a turning-point stage. What has been most affecting the market lately is the U.S.-Iran situation—developments change day by day, so capital will naturally stay cautious. As a result, it’s not easy to see a one-way trend in the short term.

In my view, the market will likely continue to consolidate and range. We need to wait for more new catalysts to break the balance. Key areas to watch are the evolution of the geopolitical situation and whether this week’s U.S. stock earnings season can bring fresh momentum to the market. If the news flow does not improve significantly, the market is likely to keep trading in a range. In terms of strategy, sticking to intraday short-term trades is still the way to go.

BTC’s daily chart remains in a narrow range. Although the bulls have tried to break upward several times, the rebound momentum is still not strong enough. Tonight’s moves after the U.S. stock market opens will be worth watching.

In the short term:
BTC: watch around 66,000
ETH: watch around 1,930
SOL: watch around 78.5
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #solana

Good morning, everyone. It’s already Friday today.

The situation in the Middle East has not shown any clear signs of easing at the moment. The U.S. military has continued to carry out actions against targets related to Iran recently, and Trump has also said that he does nothing to rule out taking further action. Although the market is still watching whether there could be a slowdown and room for negotiations afterward, in the short term, geopolitical risk remains a major source of uncertainty for the market.

Affected by this, last night the overall performance of U.S. stocks was relatively weak. All three major indexes closed lower together, and the technology and semiconductor sectors saw comparatively larger declines. As investors’ risk-avoidance sentiment increased and risk appetite fell, risk assets—including the crypto market—also came under pressure.

As for the Federal Reserve, the market’s focus is still centered on the upcoming interest-rate policy. While some officials have recently expressed concerns about inflation returning, and even argued for the necessity of keeping rates high, overall market expectations have not changed significantly. The July FOMC meeting will most likely keep interest rates unchanged, and in the short term the policy direction will remain fairly stable.

Turning back to the crypto market: in the recent period, the overall market has continued to trade within a range. However, due to adjustments in external markets and the impact of the geopolitical situation, selling pressure from above remains quite evident. Looking at the weekly chart, it still forms a cross-star pattern, with neither bulls nor bears having established a clear advantage for now. The market is largely waiting for new developments and a direction to emerge.

As for today’s market trend, the overall index is currently hovering around 63,500. The trend is somewhat weak and dominated by sideways-to-down movement. At this stage, there are no clear signals of a rebound after a stop. Therefore, it’s important to closely watch whether U.S. stocks can stabilize and bounce back. If U.S. stocks continue to weaken and fall further, it will likely spill over and further weigh on the crypto market. Second, whether there are new developments in the Middle East situation. An escalation or easing of geopolitical risk directly affects short-term sentiment in both the crypto and U.S. stock markets.

Key support levels to watch today:

BTC: around $62,000

ETH: around $1,800

SOL: around $73

Overall, the market is still waiting for signals. The focus is on whether support levels can be held effectively. For contract strategies, intraday and short-term trading is sufficient.

Wishing everyone a happy Friday and may you get rich~
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #solana