陌路英雄

Wishing everyone a happy weekend here ♥️

A few days ago, I just created the Binance chat room

You can click ⬇️ to join the group directly 😁

陌路社区

With the increasing regulation of the cryptocurrency market in China, many brothers and sisters have been unable to freely discuss market trends and contract positions. I myself also hesitate to talk too much about cryptocurrency topics on WeChat, fearing that I might get restricted or even permanently banned, as I have experienced being banned before, which makes it even more poignant for me 🥹

Thus, Binance has this chat room, which serves as a platform for us who love trading cryptocurrencies to communicate and share anytime, anywhere. We should really thank Binance for this 🙏

Some friends have known me for several years, and of course, many others are still getting to know me. I believe that meeting in the cryptocurrency world is a kind of fate. Personally, I also enjoy communicating and sharing with more friends, as we all share a common interest (making money), right? Let’s achieve our little goals early 🎯

If everyone sees the time I registered on Binance, you must know that I have been involved in this for quite a while. Here’s a brief introduction about myself again:

I entered the cryptocurrency world in 2018, and since January 2021, I have been doing live broadcasts, focusing on analyzing mainstream cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH, both spot and contracts. As for what strategies I excel at, I can only say that I like to trade based on actual market conditions 😁

Live broadcast time: Monday to Friday at 7 PM, with a duration of 1 hour. I take breaks on weekends and holidays (the market often consolidates on weekends).

Market update time: Monday to Friday mornings. I can’t provide an accurate time because my wake-up time is uncertain. Occasionally, I summarize updates on Saturdays.

Whether in a bull or bear market, I have been deeply cultivating the market. I look forward to communicating with more like-minded friends and working hard together. I don’t have many hobbies; my biggest hobby is tasting various teas and trading cryptocurrencies.

Many old friends have said that I am patient and optimistic during my live broadcasts. Why do I stay in the cryptocurrency world and continue to broadcast? Have I already achieved wealth?

In summary: I love this industry, and I treat the market as a career. My little goals are still on the way.
#BTC

The overall market is still maintaining a range-bound, sideways-trading pattern. The total volatility is relatively small, and market sentiment is just like before—still sluggish and quiet. So for now, there isn’t much worth diving into.

First, I roughly took a look at recent altcoin performance. Many coins are indeed quite weak, and there aren’t many standout targets that deserve special attention. Here I’ll briefly talk about HYPE.

On the short-term daily timeframe, HYPE’s current price action structure still remains in an upward trend. In an overall market that’s dull and with insufficient capital participation, being able to deliver such strong performance is already quite good. Also, based on the current structure, I personally believe there may still be opportunities for further upside in the short term.

Therefore, for short-term futures contract trading, you could consider waiting for a pullback and then looking for long opportunities at lower levels. For spot trading: if you’re planning a relatively long-term allocation, I think HYPE is still worth paying attention to, and you can adopt a strategy of gradually accumulating in multiple tranches at discounted prices.

As for major coins like BTC, ETH, and SOL, as long as a truly directional breakout hasn’t occurred, I don’t plan to adjust the contract-trading approach much for now. You can continue to follow the previous short-term, range-trading mindset.

I also want to emphasize spot allocation. In this kind of market environment, it’s actually more suitable to focus on long-term preparation. If you believe in future market cycles, when the market is slow and nobody is paying attention, you can use a staged approach to accumulate at lower levels, then wait for the subsequent uptrend to start.

Finally, there’s one more thing I want to mention to everyone. If by the end of the month the market still remains in this narrow-range consolidation with low liquidity, I personally think there may be no need to keep updating market analysis every day.

After all, when there isn’t any clear change in conditions, repeating analysis doesn’t have much meaning. Instead of searching for content every day, it’s better to take some rest and save your time and energy for when there is truly action—when new trends or direction changes emerge.

Once the market shows new direction and opportunities, we can come back together and analyze them—then it will be more valuable.
$BTC $ETH $HYPE
#BTC #ETH #Hyperliquid

Good morning, everyone~

Last night, Bitcoin saw a modest rebound, returning to around $64,000. However, it’s worth noting that the situation in the Middle East has once again heated up, U.S. Treasury yields have continued to rise, and the U.S. stock market has also pulled back. Whether this rebound can continue depends mainly on whether the $65,000 level can truly be broken through and held. Recently, the market has still been influenced by macro factors such as geopolitical developments and rate expectations.

At the moment, Bitcoin is around $64,300, up about 1.8% over the past 24 hours. During the day, it rebounded from the $63,000 area, with a peak near $64,600. ETH is currently around $1,908, up roughly 0.6%; SOL is near $75.9, up about 0.8%. It’s clear that the rebound strength for BTC is noticeably stronger than for ETH and SOL. Altcoins overall have not followed through strongly, suggesting that risk appetite has somewhat recovered, but capital sentiment has not fully warmed up yet—so we still need to watch whether funds continue to flow in.

The market’s core focus right now remains the situation between the U.S. and Iran. As Iran releases further signals of action and the U.S. has not signaled expectations of extending the ceasefire arrangement, risks related to the Strait of Hormuz have risen again. As a result, crude oil and gold continue to strengthen. At the same time, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note has climbed to around 4.72%, and the U.S. stock market has come under pressure and pulled back. Oil price gains can reignite market concerns about inflation, which would also limit the Federal Reserve’s room for further easing. For risk assets—including Bitcoin—this is not particularly favorable in the short term.

On interest rates, the market is still waiting for the Federal Reserve’s next policy signals. This week’s release of the FOMC meeting minutes will focus on how officials assess inflation, the economy, and the future path of interest rates. If Treasury yields continue to rise, this round of market rebound may still be capped. Therefore, until the broader market truly completes a trend breakout, remain cautious in the short term.

Today’s key points to watch:
BTC: Watch the pressure around $65,000 above. Only if it breaks through and holds can it further open up rebound space.
ETH: Watch the pressure around $1,930 in the short term
Gold: Watch the pressure around $4,450 in the short term

The current market is still in a consolidation phase, waiting for a directional choice. For futures trading, sticking to an intraday short-term trading approach is still the right idea.
$BTC $ETH $XAUT
#BTC #ETH

A new week is here—let’s talk about whether the market will see a turning point this week.

From early July until now, the overall market has stayed in a choppy, sideways consolidation. The fluctuation range has been relatively limited. The market has been waiting for a direction to be chosen, but the waiting period has already been quite long, and a truly meaningful breakout still hasn’t appeared. As a result, the overall market has been sluggish and quiet.

For such a range-bound market, we’ve previously emphasized that the contract trading approach should mainly be short-term. You can do intraday swing trades within the range, or use robots to conduct range arbitrage, and then adjust your strategy once the market truly selects a direction.

Looking at the news flow this week, there currently doesn’t seem to be any obvious factor that could significantly impact the broader market. As for the Iran-U.S. situation that we’ve been closely monitoring, it is still at a stalemate. For the crypto market, overall attention and fund liquidity have clearly declined. Market dullness is often also one of the signs seen in the bottom phase of a cycle. Therefore, for investors with a more long-term spot-focused layout, this stage can prioritize opportunities to build positions in high-quality, mainstream assets in batches.

Whether a black swan event will occur cannot be predicted in advance by anyone. So this week, the key focus is whether the Iran-U.S. situation escalates further or shows signs of easing. If the situation continues to remain stalemated, my personal view is that the broader market is likely to continue its sideways, range-bound trend in the short term.

As for today’s BTC price action on the daily level, it will likely trade in a range of 62,500—63,600. ETH overall will likely fluctuate in the 1,860—1,930 range as well. The contract trading approach will continue to follow a short-term mindset.

As for gold, its weekly chart trend is still moving upward. Although the daily chart is currently in a consolidation and range phase, the overall trend remains strong. There is still a chance in the short term to continue moving toward around 4,550. Today’s gold outlook is bullish. On the upside, the key short-term resistance to watch is around 4,450.
$BTC $ETH $XAUT
#BTC #ETH #XAU

It’s Friday again—good morning everyone~

I took a look at this week’s market index weekly chart. Basically it’s pretty much the same as the past few weeks: we’re still in a narrow-range, sideways consolidation. Especially right now, the situation between the US and Iran remains in a stalemate, and there hasn’t been any other major news in the market that could break the balance temporarily. Personally, I think in the short term it’s likely to continue in this relatively quiet state.

With this kind of行情, there’s actually no need to constantly guess the direction. More importantly, it’s about patiently waiting for a real breakout signal. As for contract trading ideas, sticking mainly to intraday short-term fluctuations should be enough. If you have the conditions, you can also consider starting a short-term trading robot to do some arbitrage within the ranging market.

Based on the rhythm of the past stretch of price action, I believe that unless there’s unexpected news today, the index will most likely stay in consolidation. Also, liquidity and the news flow are usually relatively weaker over the weekend—so on Saturday and Sunday, you don’t need to expect particularly big moves. It’s more about seeing whether next week can truly break out into a clear direction.

As for spot markets, I mentioned this before too: if you already have plans for medium-to-long-term allocation, then during a phase when market attention is relatively low and conditions are a bit quiet, you can actually keep monitoring and scaling in gradually. Give priority to mainstream coins with good liquidity and high market recognition. Many times, the stage that’s truly suitable for buying isn’t when the market is at its hottest, but when people are just not that interested. Of course, it’s still recommended to manage position sizing and not go all-in at once.

As for today’s specific index levels, they’re not much different from the positions we watched yesterday, so I won’t repeat them.

We’re almost at the weekend again. Wishing everyone a great weekend, and may you get rich~
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #solana

Good morning everyone~

After taking a look at the broader market, at the daily level the trend is still consolidating and leaning downward, and the rebound has limited room for volatility. In particular, last night’s CPI data basically matched market expectations, but the overall performance of the crypto market and US stocks has remained mediocre. On the other hand, gold’s trend has been slightly better, which is enough to show that market sentiment is still fairly cautious.

Therefore, for contract trading, at this stage it is recommended to focus mainly on intraday short-term swings, and wait until the market direction becomes clearer before considering trade opportunities at the daily level or higher.

As for Iran and the U.S., Iran stated that there are currently no talks to extend the ceasefire, and it also要求 the United States to comply again with the temporary agreement made earlier. There are still some uncertainties here. If the Iran-U.S. negotiations continue to remain in a stalemate, in my view oil prices and risk-off sentiment may heat up again, and it could also bring renewed panic back to U.S. stocks and the crypto market.

So the short-term outlook for BTC remains unchanged. First, watch whether strong support can form around 63,000. In recent days, the bulls have been holding their ground around 63,000, and there have been continuous signs of absorption. As long as there is no decisive breakdown below that level, there is still a chance to keep consolidating and building energy within the range. If 63,000 is lost, then pay attention to around 62,000.

At the same time, I believe that for the broader market to truly turn strong, it needs to regain and hold above the 65,000 area again. Therefore, until the current trend forms an effective breakout, it’s best to be patient and continue to wait and observe.

Today’s trading plan is basically the same as yesterday:

BTC: First watch 63,000 on the downside; if it breaks below, then look around 62,000
ETH: Watch around 1,850 on the downside
SOL: Watch around 74.5
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #solana

It’s Wednesday today—good morning, everyone~

Looking at this week so far, the overall market has been fairly choppy. It’s mainly been staying range-bound and moving sideways, with the trend a bit on the weaker side. As for the reasons, we’ve discussed them quite a bit earlier: over the past few days, the market has been rather quiet. Most people are simply waiting for new information.

The most worth watching today is the US CPI data to be released tonight. This is also one of the most important market catalysts this week. Since the market’s room for movement isn’t large right now, we’ll see whether tonight’s data can give it some fresh direction.

As for US-Iran developments, for the time being it’s best to keep waiting. Both sides are back in a stalemate again, with no new substantive progress at the moment. So in the short term, the impact on the market is actually not as big as it was earlier. We’ll keep an eye out for any new changes going forward.

Next, let’s look at ETF institutional capital flows. Over the last five trading days, crypto ETFs saw cumulative inflows of roughly $500 million. However, from yesterday, August 11, to this morning around 9 a.m., there was again about $44.7 million in net outflows. In other words, institutional funding performance is currently average—some inflows, some outflows—with no particularly clear, sustained directional trend yet. We’ll just continue to observe for now.

Finally, looking at the current market conditions, personally I think during the daytime it will most likely continue with the same kind of small-range consolidation. BTC will likely keep oscillating around the thousand-point level.

So the futures strategy remains unchanged for now: mainly keep trading short-term long/short flips within the day. But for spot, you could slightly change the approach. If you’re currently in cash with no position, you might consider starting to build positions gradually in some mainstream coins with better liquidity.

Today’s short-term watchlist:

BTC: around 63,000 on the downside
ETH: around 1,840 on the downside
SOL: around 74.5 on the downside

SOL’s daily chart has been relatively better at holding up. In the short term, the key is whether the 74.5 area can continue to hold.

Before tonight’s CPI data comes out, during the day it’s fine to treat it with a range-bound mindset.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #solana

Good morning, everyone. Let’s briefly recap the market from last night to now.

Market sentiment has shifted back toward caution. On one hand, ahead of the U.S. inflation data release, everyone is reluctant to make bold bets in advance; on the other hand, the situation between the U.S. and Iran, as well as the Strait of Hormuz, continues to see ups and downs. Oil prices are still trending higher, which has once again made the market worry about inflation pressure.

At the moment, the broader market has pulled back slightly. BTC is hovering around $64,000, and overall it’s still trading in a range-bound, sideways consolidation. ETH and SOL have also pulled back somewhat, though SOL has been relatively more resilient.

Last night, BTC rebounded to around 65,400 but failed to hold above that level. It then quickly dropped back to the 63,800 area, suggesting that sell pressure remains fairly evident above 65,000. For now, the market is mainly waiting for tomorrow night’s CPI data release.

Previously, U.S. employment data came in weak, and the market had some expectation of further rate cuts. But if this CPI prints higher than expected, rate-cut expectations could cool down again, and U.S. Treasury yields may continue rising. Conversely, if the inflation data is relatively mild, there would be a chance to provide fresh upside momentum for the broader market. So until the data truly lands, price action is likely to remain fairly choppy.

As for the U.S.-Iran situation, it’s fallen back into a stalemate again. The underlying differences haven’t been truly resolved—especially the outlook for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, which is still unstable. If the situation keeps repeating, it can easily push oil prices higher further, adding again to market worries about inflation. That’s not good news for either the broader market or U.S. stocks.

So for today, in my view, the broader market will likely continue with mild consolidation, with the bias slightly weaker. Since the recent trading range has been relatively small, futures are more suitable for intraday short-term trading.

Key short-term levels to watch:

BTC: around 63,000 on the downside
ETH: around 1,840 on the downside
SOL: around 75.5 on the downside

Before the CPI is released, the market will most likely stay in a wait-and-see mode. After the data comes out, we’ll see whether the broader market truly turns decisively.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #solana

Good morning everyone. A new week is here~

Last Friday’s U.S. employment data unexpectedly weakened. July nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, and market concerns about further rate hikes have eased a bit. The U.S. stock market performed well, but Bitcoin has still been hovering around 65,000 since late Saturday and hasn’t shown any clear breakout or follow-through.

This week’s most critical thing for BTC is whether it can truly hold above 65,000. If it breaks out with higher volume, there would be a chance to look toward the 68,000–70,000 area. On the downside, the first area to watch is roughly 60,000–62,000. Personally, I still think this is a range-bound market for now, and it’s not advisable to rush into chasing above 65,000.

As for liquidity, the picture is actually more positive than price action. As of August 7, over the past five trading days, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have cumulatively net flowed in about $853 million, while Ethereum ETFs have seen net inflows of about $245 million. Continued ETF re-accumulation can provide support under the market. But with such明显 inflows, BTC still hasn’t managed a breakout for a long time—so for now, we can’t conclude that a new leg of one-directional upside has already started.

Also, keep an eye on the Middle East developments. Iran and Oman have nearly completed arrangements regarding the Strait of Hormuz, but the shipping lanes have not yet reopened. As long as this issue isn’t truly resolved, oil prices and risk-aversion sentiment may continue to swing back and forth.

In addition, this week’s key focus is U.S. CPI and PPI data, which could directly affect market expectations for future monetary policy.

What to watch today in the short term:

BTC: Resistance around 66,000
ETH: Resistance around 1,940
SOL: Resistance around 78

Before the broader market truly turns, my personal view is to stick with observing and focusing on intraday trading setups for the time being.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #solana

Good morning, everyone~

It’s Friday today—another week is almost over.

Looking at this week’s overall market trend, the weekly chart is still following the previous narrow-range consolidation. Overall volatility remains low, and both bulls and bears are fairly cautious.

The reason is also quite clear: the market is mainly waiting to see how the situation between the US and Iran develops. Just now, news showed that Oman is pushing a framework for a temporary agreement, aiming to establish a new shipping lane between routes controlled by Iran and Oman. Trump also said the US is taking part in the relevant negotiations, and that things are progressing well.

After the news came out, risk-averse sentiment eased somewhat. Oil prices continued to face pressure, and risk assets received some near-term support.

However, at this point, it doesn’t look like the US-Iran side has seen a clear agreement actually taking shape. So the market is still mostly trading on the “expectation that tensions will ease.” Going forward, developments will need to be watched closely. After all, Trump’s policy changes can be quite fast, and any new statements later on could affect market sentiment.

And the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data to be released tonight is also a key focus for the market. If employment data shows a significant change, it may further influence the market’s判断 about the Federal Reserve’s policy direction.

On the capital flow side, in the latest trading day, crypto ETFs saw total net inflows of about $23.65 million, of which MSBT accounted for $14.9 million in a single day. Over the past 5 trading days, crypto ETFs recorded total net inflows of about $499 million—suggesting that institutional sentiment in recent times has improved compared with earlier periods, and the market’s ability to absorb trades has also strengthened.

At present, BTC is still in a consolidation phase and hasn’t shown a clear direction yet. Therefore, ETH and SOL overall are similar as well. For contract trading, our current thinking remains unchanged—for now, until the market truly turns, continue using an intraday short-term strategy.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #solana #伊朗阿曼达成霍尔木兹航线协议

Good morning everyone~

Over the past two days, we still need to keep a close watch on developments related to the Iran–U.S. situation. Yesterday, Trump said that the Iran–U.S. issue could reach a result within 48 hours, and he also mentioned that the Strait of Hormuz may reopen as early as Wednesday or Thursday this week. After the news was released, market risk-off sentiment eased noticeably. International oil prices continued to come under pressure and fell further, while U.S. stocks and other risk assets received some support.

Of course, the market is still waiting and watching for updates, because the two sides have not yet announced any official agreement. What the market is trading more is the expectation of “a further easing of tensions,” not that the risk has been fully eliminated.

If the negotiations can proceed smoothly, pressure on crude oil would decline further. That would be a positive for risk assets such as Bitcoin. But if the talks see another round of setbacks, funds could still flow back into safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar and gold.

In recent days, Trump has continued to send signals expressing hope that the Iran issue can be resolved through negotiations. However, his policy style can change quickly, so the market still needs to watch for his specific subsequent statements—especially whether the Strait of Hormuz truly returns to normal passage.

And from the intraday price action, although Bitcoin rebounded and even briefly touched 65,000, it failed to hold effectively. This suggests that capital and market sentiment remain fairly cautious. The market is still waiting for new catalysts, including changes in interest-rate-cut expectations, U.S. economic data, and institutional capital flows.

In the ETF sector, total net inflows over the past five trading days were about $479 million, indicating that institutional money has started to return recently. Market confidence has improved compared with the earlier period. However, ETF fund inflows today do not necessarily mean the trend has fully reversed. For Bitcoin to open up further upside space, it still needs to see trading volume expand and the price effectively break through key resistance levels.

Therefore, today remains choppy with a slight rebound bias. Whether it can effectively break above and hold 65,000, forming a new upward trend, still needs to be monitored.

Personally, today’s focus:
BTC: watch support around 63,500,
ETH: watch support around 1,880;
SOL: watch support around 73.

Overall, the easing of the Iran–U.S. situation provides some support for market sentiment, and institutional capital has started to improve. But for the market to truly strengthen, it still depends on sustained inflows of capital and a break through key levels.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #solana

Good morning, everyone. Let’s briefly talk about the market from last night to now. Progress has emerged in the U.S.-Iran negotiations, and the navigation issue in the Strait of Hormuz may see a breakthrough. Risk-off sentiment has eased somewhat. U.S. stocks have continued to rise, with the S&P 500 and the Dow making new record closes. International oil prices, however, have clearly fallen. This news is generally favorable for risk assets, but the crypto market’s reaction hasn’t been very strong, suggesting everyone remains relatively cautious.

Bitcoin is currently around $64,100. It bounced as high as above $64,500 last night, but soon fell back into its range. ETH is around $1,868, and SOL is around $73.8—both are basically flat, with no obvious signs of a breakout with increasing volume, so we still need to wait.

As for the U.S. and Iran, we shouldn’t be too optimistic too early. Although Trump said an agreement is close to being reached, Iran’s stance isn’t entirely consistent. There have also been reports of attacks on ships near the strait. As long as the final agreement isn’t actually in place, the situation in the Middle East could swing back at any time, and oil prices and risk assets may also move quickly. Last night, U.S. stocks performed much stronger than Bitcoin, which suggests traditional markets are responding more positively to the news, while crypto capital is still watching from the sidelines.

From the chart, for the near term the broader market is likely to hover around 63,000. As long as it doesn’t effectively break down below that level, we’ll likely see range-bound movement for now. If it drops back below 63,000, we should continue to pay attention to the area around 61,500. On the upside, watch around 65,000 as well. 65,000 is an important battleground level for both bulls and bears—only if the bulls can truly hold above 65,000 effectively will the rebound gain more strength and potentially usher in the next wave of momentum.

Personally, I think the broader market will mainly continue to trade sideways today. The futures strategy remains unchanged: just focus on intraday short-term fluctuations. Going forward, besides the outcome of the U.S.-Iran talks, we also need to pay attention to U.S. employment data this coming Friday, which will affect market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s rate policy.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #solana

Good morning, everyone. Let’s briefly talk about the market developments from last night to now. There are signs of easing in the situation between Iran and the U.S.; oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields have pulled back. U.S. stocks have rebounded strongly, but Bitcoin has only risen slightly, suggesting that buyers in the crypto market remain relatively cautious. For now, it’s more suitable to view the market as range-bound rather than chase the upside just because offshore markets are rallying.

Trump delayed military action against Iran, and the market is also waiting to see further progress on subsequent talks. As a result, international oil prices have fallen to around $80.8, with a daily drop of more than 4%. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury has declined to about 4.69%. Last night, the S&P 500 rose 1.48%, the Nasdaq gained 2.13%, and the Dow increased 1.32%. Softer geopolitical news and falling oil prices help with controlling inflation and stabilizing market sentiment, but these positives have not fully transmitted to the crypto market yet.

Bitcoin is currently around $63,600. It’s up about 0.6% over the past 24 hours, briefly dipping to $62,300 before reclaiming $63,000. ETH is around $1,860, and SOL is around $73.3—both are relatively unchanged. This indicates that the current rebound is still mainly led by Bitcoin; ETH and SOL have not clearly kept up. The market sentiment index also remains in the extreme fear zone, so it’s still too early to conclude that the broader market has turned bullish.

In the short term, focus first on the $62,000 area. As long as it does not clearly break down again, Bitcoin still has a chance to test $64,000 repeatedly for the time being. The key level that truly needs to be broken is around $65,000. Especially after it can effectively hold above $65,000, there’s a better chance that upside room will open further. If $62,000 is lost, then watch the $60,000 area. Personally, chasing at the current position generally offers mediocre risk-reward; it’s more appropriate to wait for confirmation at key levels, and don’t open futures positions too heavily.

Today, keep an eye on the Iran-U.S. negotiations and Trump’s latest statements. Later this week, there will be U.S. services sector data and the employment report, and these figures will affect the market’s expectations for Fed rate cuts. My view is: for now, the broader market is still mainly range-bound. The U.S. stock rebound provides some support to the market, but the crypto market itself still needs stronger buy-side participation.

As long as the Iran-U.S. news does not deteriorate further, it should remain mostly short-term intraday trading. The key focus is whether the broader market can effectively hold above $65,000.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #solana

A new week, a new beginning~

In one sentence: The US-Iran situation has temporarily eased, but market sentiment and institutional capital remain cautious. This week, we will mainly focus on US employment data.

The market’s current focus is still centered on the US-Iran situation and comments related to Donald Trump. Trump said the US will temporarily hold off on further military action against Iran, and hopes to resolve the issues surrounding passage through the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program through negotiations. Both sides are expected to begin another round of communication.

Driven by this news, international oil prices have clearly fallen, and risk-averse sentiment has cooled somewhat. In the short term, it has provided some support to risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Personally, I believe that the US and Iran have not yet reached any substantive agreement. Trump’s policy stance could shift at any time, and there is still a risk of the situation in the Middle East escalating again. Therefore, although market sentiment has improved somewhat, it has not truly turned optimistic.

On the capital flows side, over the past five trading days, crypto ETFs saw total outflows of USD 68.4445 million, indicating that institutional capital is still mainly de-risking and reducing positions in the short term. For now, there has been no clear sign of sustained buying pressure.

While easing geopolitical risk can improve market sentiment, given the backdrop of continued ETF outflows, Bitcoin’s room to rise in the short term may still be limited. The price action is more likely to remain volatile and choppy rather than break into a clear one-way uptrend.

This week, key items to watch include the US ADP employment data and the nonfarm payroll report, and continue to monitor progress in US-Iran negotiations.

If US employment data cools, it may increase market expectations for easier monetary policy, which would support Bitcoin. If employment data is significantly stronger than market expectations, it could push the US dollar and US Treasury yields higher, continuing to weigh on the crypto market.

For this week’s overall market trend, unless the US-Iran talks achieve a substantive breakthrough—giving both sides a genuine opportunity to reach an agreement and cool the situation—based on the current circumstances, it is still difficult for peace to be realized in the near term.

I believe the overall market this week will mainly trade in a range. During the period, headline news may trigger quick rallies or selloffs.

Today, the market is expected to be mostly choppy and sideways with a slight weakness. In the short term, watch BTC around 61,500, ETH around 1,800, and SOL around 70.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #solana #特朗普取消打击伊朗待协议

Good morning, everyone. Today is Friday, and it’s also the last day of July.

Last night, risk assets saw a clear rebound overall. The latest U.S. inflation data came in softer. In June, headline PCE year-on-year eased from 4.1% to 3.7%, while core PCE edged down from 3.4% to 3.3%.

That said, the overall decline in inflation was driven largely by falling energy prices. Core inflation is still above the Fed’s 2% target, so there remains disagreement in the market about the path of monetary policy going forward.

In equities, Microsoft’s earnings were strong, with the stock rising more than 15% in a single day, lifting the Nasdaq, the S&P 500, and the semiconductor sector as a whole. In early trading today, tech stocks in Japan and South Korea also saw a sharp recovery, suggesting that risk appetite has genuinely warmed up in the short term.

However, it’s worth noting that this rebound looks more like a sentiment repair after the sharp selloff earlier, not proof that market risk has been fully resolved. Volatility in traditional stocks and derivatives has been extremely high recently. AI hedge fund Situational Awareness suffered severe losses due to high leverage investments and was forced to sell most of its public stock portfolio. This indicates that if the market’s direction is misjudged, highly leveraged capital is still prone to concentrated forced liquidations.

In the crypto market, Strategy reported a net loss of about $8.2 billion in the second quarter, mainly from paper losses caused by the decline in the price of its Bitcoin holdings. Compared with the headline accounting loss in the earnings report, what I care more about is its recent actual actions.

Strategy has now gone multiple weeks without continuing to buy Bitcoin and has sold around $216 million worth of BTC to pay for preferred stock dividends and to replenish cash reserves. At the same time, the company still retains a plan to liquidate up to $1.25 billion worth of BTC.

This means that Strategy, which has been continuously providing buy-side support to the market, has shifted from only buying to prioritizing cash flow and debt management. In the short term, this will likely weaken expectations of continuous institutional buying, and it could also create some pressure above the BTC price.

Looking back at the chart, Bitcoin is still trading in a range around $65,000. The rebound in U.S. stocks and Asian markets provides some support to crypto sentiment, but Strategy’s coin sales, ETF outflows at various stages, and the risk of deleveraging in the market will still limit upside space in the near term.

Personally, I think today the broader market will remain range-bound with a slight upward bias.
BTC: watch around 64,000
ETH: watch around 1,880
SOL: watch around 73
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #solana

Good morning, everyone.

Last night’s biggest news was the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate meeting. The final result matched market expectations: the benchmark rate was kept unchanged, so the overall market reaction after the announcement wasn’t particularly significant.

However, what’s really worth paying attention to isn’t the rate itself, but the Fed chair’s subsequent remarks. Based on the tone of the statements, the Federal Reserve did not signal a clear rate-cut path. Instead, it repeatedly emphasized that the policy direction will still be determined by incoming economic data, suggesting that the Fed remains cautious about inflation for now. This has also cooled market expectations for rate cuts within the year. For risk assets to break out of a sustained upward trend in the short term, the difficulty remains high.

As for the Middle East, there have been no new escalations in the situation between the U.S. and Iran. Trump said that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are still being advanced, but he also stressed that if the talks fail to achieve substantive progress, the U.S. still retains the possibility of taking further action. In other words, geopolitical risk hasn’t truly been lifted, and the market continues to stay somewhat on guard.

In addition, the state of liquidity is also worth watching. Over the past five trading days, crypto ETFs recorded cumulative net outflows of about $682 million, indicating that some institutional capital in recent days has still been focused on controlling risk and reducing positions. Short-term market sentiment therefore remains relatively cautious.

Back to the price action: Bitcoin is still maintaining daily-level consolidation. Compared with the past few days, the overall走势 is slightly stronger, but it has yet to break through a key resistance level, which suggests that overhead selling pressure remains. Unless there is a new positive catalyst, I believe the market will likely continue to trade in a range, and it’s best to be patient and wait for a directional move.

Today, watch a few key levels:

BTC: watch resistance around $66,000;

ETH: watch resistance around $1,960;

SOL: watch resistance around $76.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #solana

Good morning, everyone.

The main focus of the current market is centered on the progress of the U.S.-Iran negotiations and the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision.

Trump said that both sides in the U.S.-Iran talks are conducting “good negotiations.” The related news drove international oil prices to fall in the short term. Geopolitical risk has eased temporarily, which has also helped relieve the safe-haven pressure in the crypto market.

As for the Fed, the market currently estimates a 69.5% probability that this meeting will keep interest rates unchanged, and a 30.5% probability of a 25-basis-point hike. In addition, Tommen Securities believes that if the Fed chooses to stay put, the U.S. dollar could weaken in the short term.

Therefore, tonight, the market needs to pay close attention to the U.S. rate decision to be released at 2:00 a.m., as well as the subsequent remarks by Fed Chair Waller. Compared with the rate outcome itself, the policy signals conveyed in Waller’s speech may be even more important—including whether further rate hikes are still possible, the assessment of inflation, and the direction of future monetary policy.

Personally, I believe the Fed will most likely keep rates unchanged this time. If there is an unexpected hike, risk assets may face further pressure and pull back.

Before the results are released, it’s advisable to remain on the sidelines and wait until the policy signals become clear before deciding on the next trading direction, to avoid chasing or selling aggressively just before the news lands.

From the current market picture, the overall room for large fluctuations appears limited, suggesting that market funds are still waiting for the news to be released. It’s expected that during the daytime today, the market will most likely continue to trade in a range. Therefore, it’s recommended to focus on intraday short-term trading strategies.

From the daily chart structure, BTC has been maintaining a sideways range recently. For the short term, support around $62,000 remains in focus. ETH’s daily performance has been relatively stronger than the broader market; for the short term, watch the area around $1,850. SOL’s daily chart is still in a sideways-to-downward channel and overall performance is weak. In the short term, continue to watch support near $70.5.

After tonight’s news is released, market volatility may increase significantly. Everyone, please make sure to control your position sizing and manage risk.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #solana

The focus in the current market remains concentrated on the U.S.-Iran situation and expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy.

Trump said that the U.S. is conducting deep negotiations with Iran, but there is not much time left for Iran. If the negotiations ultimately break down, the U.S. does not rule out taking military action again. For the market, once the U.S.-Iran situation escalates again, it may push international oil prices higher, while also driving up risk-averse sentiment—putting some pressure on both U.S. stocks and the crypto market.

As for the Federal Reserve, Citi believes the market is currently underestimating the risk of further rate hikes. Grayscale, meanwhile, said that as long as the Fed does not continue raising rates, Bitcoin may already be close to a stage bottom. Overall, macro news remains mixed in both bullish and bearish directions, and the market currently lacks a clear direction.

Next, let’s look at fund flows. On July 27, crypto ETFs recorded a total net outflow of $4.7 million. Among them, BSOL had a net inflow of $1.0 million, while FBTC had a net outflow of $2.8 million. Over the past five trading days, crypto ETFs累计 recorded a cumulative net outflow of about $128 million, suggesting that institutional capital remains relatively cautious in the short term, with risk-aversion and de-risking sentiment relatively evident.

Returning to the price action: currently, at the daily level, the broader market is still in a choppy but weaker state. According to the liquidation map over the past 24 hours, short liquidation zones are relatively concentrated above BTC, ETH, and SOL. The current price action is still dominated by bearish sentiment, and overall the market remains pessimistic.

In the short term, it is important to watch for the risk that the broader market accelerates further downward. Today, key levels to watch: BTC around $62,000, ETH around $1,830, and SOL around $70.5. If these levels can hold, the market may continue to stay in a range-bound period. If there is an effective breakdown, the weak short-term trend could persist further.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #solana

Good morning everyone. Let’s first take a look at some news this weekend so far that’s worth paying attention to.

First, let’s look at the situation between the US and Iran. Both sides have not further expanded military operations. Trump has paused a new round of airstrikes against Iran, and the US said it hopes to leave room for diplomatic talks. Iran has also responded that as long as the US continues to stop attacks, Iran will pause retaliatory actions as well. At present, multiple parties including Oman are still actively mediating, and communication between the two sides remains ongoing, but there’s still some distance before the underlying disagreements are truly resolved.

As a result, market risk-off sentiment has clearly cooled. International oil prices fell more than 5% at one point on Monday, and US stock index futures rebounded in sync. This suggests that capital is starting to refocus on risk assets again, but this is more of a sentiment rebound and does not mean geopolitical risks have been completely eliminated. Core issues such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Iran nuclear problem still remain, so ongoing monitoring is still needed.

Now let’s talk about the crypto market. Bitcoin still hasn’t broken out of its trading range. Since July, on the weekly timeframe it has largely stayed sideways, with neither bulls nor bears gaining a clear advantage. What the market is truly waiting for is not the US-Iran situation, but several more important developments this week.

This week, the US Federal Reserve will release its latest interest rate decision. At the same time, tech giants such as Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will also gradually publish earnings reports. Whether it’s the Fed’s guidance on future policy, or the companies’ performance and their AI-related capital expenditure, all of these could directly affect the near-term direction of US stocks and the crypto market.

So personally, I think uncertainty in the market remains relatively high this week. Before key news is finalized, the broader market will most likely remain choppy, and in terms of trading, it’s more suitable to focus on intraday short-term setups.

Technical levels to watch:

BTC: Continue to watch support around $63,500. If it can hold, the sideways pattern is likely to continue. If it breaks below, then you’ll need to watch for a new support area beneath it.
ETH: Recent price action has been clearly stronger than BTC. In the short term, focus on support around $1,900. As long as this level holds, there is still a chance for the overall trend to strengthen further.
SOL: In the short term, watch support around $74. As long as key levels are not lost, the overall bias remains a bit more bullish despite consolidation.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #solana