#FedWatch
Hawkish Fed Pause
๐Ÿฆ The U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates at 3.75%โ€“4.00% in a hawkish 10โ€“2 vote! ๐Ÿ“Š
The Federal Open Market Committee chose to leave benchmark interest rates unchanged, but donโ€™t let the word โ€œpauseโ€ fool you; the underlying tone from Chair Kevin Warsh and the committee was clearly hawkish.
Key points to know:
A 10โ€“2 split: Two members of the monetary policy committee (Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack) opposed the decision, instead pushing for an immediate 25-basis-point rate hike, signaling continued concern within the committee about persistent inflation.
Strong economy and high prices: The Fed upgraded its growth assessment to โ€œstrong,โ€ but acknowledged that price pressures and inflation remain elevated.
December is still on the table: By avoiding a commitment to future rate cuts, market participants are closely watching incoming data (such as personal consumption expenditures inflation) to see whether a December rate hike will be back in consideration.
Bond market reaction: Although the central bank has temporarily paused rate hikes, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yieldโ€™s rise above 5% shows that the bond market is tightening financial conditions on its behalf.

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