I’m bullish on the broader market, but I’m not chasing here. $BTC 4H is still trending upward. It surged to 81800 last night but got rejected; it’s now at 81239, back below 81270.

Yesterday, I said I’d wait for it to close above 81270 before taking a position. It poked above, but couldn’t hold. That call wasn’t right or wrong—I just didn’t make any money. I closed seven trades yesterday: two winners and five losers, all five stopped out. The two winners didn’t make up for the losses, so I ended the day down overall.

I have just one position left: a short on $Lobster, currently up +42.09%. It’s bouncing in the short term, and the RSI has climbed to 63, but the price is still well below my stop loss at 0.03841. The bearish structure remains intact, so I’m holding. A bullish outlook on the broader market doesn’t conflict with this short; I assess each structure on its own. This trade is part of my copy-trading portfolio, and the people following my trades took the same five stop-outs yesterday. I won’t show you only the winners.

I’m watching 81800 above—that’s the high it surged to last night before getting rejected. It’ll only count as a real breakout if the 4H candle closes above it. I’ll be more aggressive only if the broader market strengthens. Below, I’m watching 80355, the swing low for this move and the first support below the two moving averages. If a 4H candle closes below 80355, today’s bullish outlook is off, and I’ll go back to watching from the sidelines. If the price keeps chopping around in the middle, I’ll stay put.

The one thing I should absolutely not do today: chase a long right where price just got rejected.

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