I was talking with a friend about the market lately. Most people lose money because they don’t understand the cycles, and greed gets the better of them.
A lot of people have a very simple rationale for buying the dip: “It’s fallen so much—surely this must be the bottom, right?” Bitcoin fell from 120,000 to 100,000, and everyone rushed in to buy the dip. In the end, they all got trapped halfway down. Gold kept sliding from 1,200, and when it fell to just over 800, people were still shouting that it was time to buy the dip—but no one could say for sure whether it was really the bottom. Semiconductors had a pretty strong run recently, didn’t they? Now they’ve fallen, and countless people have rushed in to catch them. And then there are Chinese stocks: after a rally in the first half of the year, they’ve been falling nonstop in the second half. A single bullish candle last Friday lured in plenty of people, only for the market to turn around and keep dragging them down.
Basically, they’re all making the same mistake: they’re focused only on how far prices have fallen, without considering what stage of the cycle we’re in, whether an investment is worth holding for the long term, or how long to hold it. Many people are fixated on catching the exact bottom, but cycles aren’t about calculating prices—they’re about timing. When something has surged in the short term and already exhausted its upside, what usually follows is a long period of declines and volatility. It may not recover for months—even a year or two.
Different investments have different cycles. Once you understand them, making money becomes much easier. Gold has the longest cycle, taking roughly seven or eight years to complete a bull-and-bear cycle. After each major rally, it often takes several years of choppy pullbacks to finally reach a bottom. Seeing so many retail investors shouting about buying the dip in gold every day, you should think carefully about how long you’re prepared to hold. The cycle in Chinese stocks isn’t as clear, but the main rally was already completed in the first half of the year. A full year of volatile declines is likely next. This market isn’t suited to long-term holding in the first place, and adding to your position will only leave you more deeply underwater. Bitcoin’s pattern is clearer: roughly one year of bear market followed by three years of gains. Get the timing right, and making money can feel as easy as picking it up off the ground.
#BTC #CRCL $CRCLB
There are so many things to invest in around the world. As long as you understand how cycles work, there are opportunities to make money every year. Don’t fixate on a single asset that’s falling, and don’t keep thinking you can catch the exact bottom. Figure out where you are in the cycle and make informed moves.
So, my friends, where do you think Bitcoin is in its cycle right now?
A lot of people have a very simple rationale for buying the dip: “It’s fallen so much—surely this must be the bottom, right?” Bitcoin fell from 120,000 to 100,000, and everyone rushed in to buy the dip. In the end, they all got trapped halfway down. Gold kept sliding from 1,200, and when it fell to just over 800, people were still shouting that it was time to buy the dip—but no one could say for sure whether it was really the bottom. Semiconductors had a pretty strong run recently, didn’t they? Now they’ve fallen, and countless people have rushed in to catch them. And then there are Chinese stocks: after a rally in the first half of the year, they’ve been falling nonstop in the second half. A single bullish candle last Friday lured in plenty of people, only for the market to turn around and keep dragging them down.
Basically, they’re all making the same mistake: they’re focused only on how far prices have fallen, without considering what stage of the cycle we’re in, whether an investment is worth holding for the long term, or how long to hold it. Many people are fixated on catching the exact bottom, but cycles aren’t about calculating prices—they’re about timing. When something has surged in the short term and already exhausted its upside, what usually follows is a long period of declines and volatility. It may not recover for months—even a year or two.
Different investments have different cycles. Once you understand them, making money becomes much easier. Gold has the longest cycle, taking roughly seven or eight years to complete a bull-and-bear cycle. After each major rally, it often takes several years of choppy pullbacks to finally reach a bottom. Seeing so many retail investors shouting about buying the dip in gold every day, you should think carefully about how long you’re prepared to hold. The cycle in Chinese stocks isn’t as clear, but the main rally was already completed in the first half of the year. A full year of volatile declines is likely next. This market isn’t suited to long-term holding in the first place, and adding to your position will only leave you more deeply underwater. Bitcoin’s pattern is clearer: roughly one year of bear market followed by three years of gains. Get the timing right, and making money can feel as easy as picking it up off the ground.
#BTC #CRCL $CRCLB
There are so many things to invest in around the world. As long as you understand how cycles work, there are opportunities to make money every year. Don’t fixate on a single asset that’s falling, and don’t keep thinking you can catch the exact bottom. Figure out where you are in the cycle and make informed moves.
So, my friends, where do you think Bitcoin is in its cycle right now?
