I’m bullish today, but I won’t chase until $BTC gets above 83420. The current price is 83057; it just spiked above that high and got pushed back down. On the 4H chart, both moving averages are turning up below price. The structure is intact, but there are still sellers overhead.

Yesterday I said I was bullish, and that view would be invalidated only if price broke below 81700 and failed to reclaim it. It briefly dipped to 81146, but then recovered, so the direction was more or less right. I closed six trades yesterday: two winners and four losers. All four losing trades were exited at their stop losses. One of the winners made back the losses from three stopped-out trades, so I ended the day roughly flat.

Right now, I’m holding just one short position in $Lobster, currently up +38.87%. The stop is still at 0.03841 and hasn’t moved. A bullish broader market doesn’t mean every asset needs to be bought. This asset’s own trend is still heading down and hasn’t broken, so I’m holding the position. That doesn’t conflict with being bullish on the broader market. This trade is part of my copy-trading portfolio, so followers have the same entry and stop loss as I do.

Plan: Above, I’m watching 83420—the high this move spiked to before getting knocked back down. I’ll only start looking for new longs after a 4H candle closes above it. Below, I’m watching 81700, the level that’s held repeatedly over the past few days. If price breaks below 81700 and a 4H candle fails to reclaim it, my bullish view is invalidated. I’ll switch back to a range-bound outlook, hold only my current position, and open no new trades. I’m staying out of this middle zone.

The Fear and Greed Index is at 55, and BTC funding is only 0.0088%. Longs aren’t crowded yet, so a pullback is unlikely to trigger a long squeeze. That makes chasing longs near 83000 the worst thing to do today. If you want to chase, wait until a 4H candle closes above 83420.

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