$TIA The post that made me eat my words: I said the whole move was over this afternoon, but a high-volume 16:00 candle closed back above 0.633
Admitting I was wrong first: my 14:38 post, “The whole move is over,” is void. I wrote the invalidation conditions myself in that post: “If price reclaims 0.633 on volume and the next candle holds, the call that the whole move is over is void.” Both conditions have now been met.
Data (Beijing time, cross-checked between Binance spot and OKX perpetuals, with a discrepancy of about 0.12%): the 16:00 one-hour candle closed at 0.6580, with a trading volume of about 1.02 million USDT—two to three times that of the preceding candles. It closed again at 0.6514 at 17:00, holding above 0.633. The current price is about 0.6516. The 24-hour change has recovered from −16.6% to −8.9%, and the low of 0.6232 has not been broken again. OKX funding is about −0.0027%, with open interest at about $8.29 million. Leverage isn’t crowded; this reclaim was driven mainly by spot buying.
Why did it reclaim the level? I couldn’t find a new catalyst—there was no fresh negative news behind the drop, nor any new positive news behind the rebound. It was simply another handoff between bulls and bears in the 0.6204–0.633 zone, where price had held for three days.
The updated read is based only on closes: 0.633 has turned back into support. If a one-hour candle closes back below it, then this reclaim today was a bull trap and the call that the rally is fading is back on. Only if price holds above it and breaks the 17:00 high of 0.6657 would it make sense to look toward the 24-hour high of 0.7174. A hard fork is coming on October 20—don’t go all-in on a direction when price is sitting right on the line.
Risk warning: This is only my personal review and is not investment advice. Sharp drops and rebounds often involve false moves; go by the closes.
Which side are you on: has 0.633 really held this time, or will the price close back below it tonight?
#TIA #Celestia #Altcoins
Admitting I was wrong first: my 14:38 post, “The whole move is over,” is void. I wrote the invalidation conditions myself in that post: “If price reclaims 0.633 on volume and the next candle holds, the call that the whole move is over is void.” Both conditions have now been met.
Data (Beijing time, cross-checked between Binance spot and OKX perpetuals, with a discrepancy of about 0.12%): the 16:00 one-hour candle closed at 0.6580, with a trading volume of about 1.02 million USDT—two to three times that of the preceding candles. It closed again at 0.6514 at 17:00, holding above 0.633. The current price is about 0.6516. The 24-hour change has recovered from −16.6% to −8.9%, and the low of 0.6232 has not been broken again. OKX funding is about −0.0027%, with open interest at about $8.29 million. Leverage isn’t crowded; this reclaim was driven mainly by spot buying.
Why did it reclaim the level? I couldn’t find a new catalyst—there was no fresh negative news behind the drop, nor any new positive news behind the rebound. It was simply another handoff between bulls and bears in the 0.6204–0.633 zone, where price had held for three days.
The updated read is based only on closes: 0.633 has turned back into support. If a one-hour candle closes back below it, then this reclaim today was a bull trap and the call that the rally is fading is back on. Only if price holds above it and breaks the 17:00 high of 0.6657 would it make sense to look toward the 24-hour high of 0.7174. A hard fork is coming on October 20—don’t go all-in on a direction when price is sitting right on the line.
Risk warning: This is only my personal review and is not investment advice. Sharp drops and rebounds often involve false moves; go by the closes.
Which side are you on: has 0.633 really held this time, or will the price close back below it tonight?
#TIA #Celestia #Altcoins