$TIA The whole move is over: 0.633 held for three days, then two consecutive hourly closes at 12:00 and 13:00 broke below it
First, pick a side: do you think this is a completed pullback, with price ready to reclaim 0.633 at any moment, or has the entire breakout run already ended, with 0.6204 next to be tested? I’m leaning toward the latter, based solely on the closes.
Here are the numbers (Beijing time, cross-checked against Binance spot and OKX perpetuals, with a deviation of about 0.1%): current price is around 0.627; 24-hour change is about -16.6%; 24-hour high: 0.7519; low: 0.6232; spot 24-hour trading volume: about 19.84 million USDT. From the October 17 high of 0.769, the maximum drawdown is about 19%. OKX perpetual funding is around +0.0050%, with open interest at about $8.04 million. Neither longs nor shorts are at an extreme, so this move looks less like a leveraged liquidation cascade and more like spot holders taking profits and stepping away.
Why say the whole move is over? 0.633 was the double-top level that broke out on high volume on October 16, and it had been the first line of defense for this entire run. This morning, the 09:00 close of 0.6333 held just 0.0003 above the level, barely scraping by. At 10:00 it dipped slightly below, then reclaimed it at 11:00, so there was still room for doubt. But it closed at 0.6300 at 12:00, then 0.6270 at 13:00: two consecutive closes clearly below the level, with no quick reclaim on the next candle. That’s where the previously established criteria for calling the whole move over were met.
Why did it fall? I haven’t found any clear new negative catalyst. The October 20 hard fork and Upbit’s suspension of deposits and withdrawals were both announced back on October 15. They’re upcoming event risks, not a new trigger for today’s sell-off.
From here, watch just two closes: 0.6204 below is the original false-breakout level; another 1-hour close below it would deepen the retreat. If price reclaims 0.633 on strong volume and the next candle holds above it, the call that the whole move is over is invalidated. Volatility will only increase ahead of the hard fork, so don’t chase shorts near the level, and don’t rush to catch a falling knife.
Risk warning: This is only my personal review and is not investment advice. Wicks and false reclaims are common during sharp sell-offs; rely on closing prices.
Which side are you on: will a reclaim of 0.633 prove me wrong, or are we testing 0.6204 first? Explain your criteria for a closing-price confirmation in the comments.
#TIA #Celestia #Altcoins
First, pick a side: do you think this is a completed pullback, with price ready to reclaim 0.633 at any moment, or has the entire breakout run already ended, with 0.6204 next to be tested? I’m leaning toward the latter, based solely on the closes.
Here are the numbers (Beijing time, cross-checked against Binance spot and OKX perpetuals, with a deviation of about 0.1%): current price is around 0.627; 24-hour change is about -16.6%; 24-hour high: 0.7519; low: 0.6232; spot 24-hour trading volume: about 19.84 million USDT. From the October 17 high of 0.769, the maximum drawdown is about 19%. OKX perpetual funding is around +0.0050%, with open interest at about $8.04 million. Neither longs nor shorts are at an extreme, so this move looks less like a leveraged liquidation cascade and more like spot holders taking profits and stepping away.
Why say the whole move is over? 0.633 was the double-top level that broke out on high volume on October 16, and it had been the first line of defense for this entire run. This morning, the 09:00 close of 0.6333 held just 0.0003 above the level, barely scraping by. At 10:00 it dipped slightly below, then reclaimed it at 11:00, so there was still room for doubt. But it closed at 0.6300 at 12:00, then 0.6270 at 13:00: two consecutive closes clearly below the level, with no quick reclaim on the next candle. That’s where the previously established criteria for calling the whole move over were met.
Why did it fall? I haven’t found any clear new negative catalyst. The October 20 hard fork and Upbit’s suspension of deposits and withdrawals were both announced back on October 15. They’re upcoming event risks, not a new trigger for today’s sell-off.
From here, watch just two closes: 0.6204 below is the original false-breakout level; another 1-hour close below it would deepen the retreat. If price reclaims 0.633 on strong volume and the next candle holds above it, the call that the whole move is over is invalidated. Volatility will only increase ahead of the hard fork, so don’t chase shorts near the level, and don’t rush to catch a falling knife.
Risk warning: This is only my personal review and is not investment advice. Wicks and false reclaims are common during sharp sell-offs; rely on closing prices.
Which side are you on: will a reclaim of 0.633 prove me wrong, or are we testing 0.6204 first? Explain your criteria for a closing-price confirmation in the comments.
#TIA #Celestia #Altcoins