$TIA rose from 0.59 at 8 a.m. yesterday to 0.704, up 19% in a little over a day. Futures open interest, measured in coins, grew from 39.31 million to 51.10 million, an increase of 30%. Yet over the same period, the share of long accounts on Binance Futures fell from 69.5% to 57.2%, while the top traders' long/short ratio dropped from 1.84 to 1.37. The price is moving up, but newly opened positions are leaning short.
It’s clear when this batch of shorts entered. From 2 p.m. to 11 p.m. yesterday, open interest surged from 41.08 million to 52.06 million coins, with an average futures trading price of around 0.689 during that stretch. Most of the new shorts added over the past day have an entry price around 0.69, just 2% below the current price. Futures trading volume over the past 24 hours was $482 million, 11 times spot volume, so this move has basically been driven by futures traders.
Why are they willing to short? The indicators are indeed overheated: daily RSI is 71.3, the 4-hour KDJ J value is 92.2, and the price is hugging the 4-hour Keltner upper band at 0.702. The chart looks toppy, so some are using that as a reason to short. The problem is that the funding rate is almost zero. The latest rate was -0.0037%, so shorts aren’t getting paid; holding on means pure unrealized losses, and every 1% rise adds more pressure.
A quick review of my call. Yesterday afternoon, based on the daily ATR, I estimated TIA could reach around 0.72. It hit a high of 0.7233 at 10 p.m. that night, so that call played out. I said I’d only act if a pullback held at 0.634, but an hour later it dipped to 0.6331 and bounced back—I missed that move.
Structurally, the first support below is the low from early this morning at 0.657, followed by the 4-hour EMA12 at 0.647. Above, there’s last night’s high of 0.7233, then 0.733, the high from November 21 last year and the highest level in nearly 11 months.
My view is that shorts have piled in at a very uncomfortable level this time: their entry price is too close to the current price, and there’s no funding to collect. As long as 0.657 holds, a move to sweep the 0.7233–0.733 area seems more likely. If that breaks, forced short liquidations mean forced buying, and short covering could push the price higher on its own. If a 4-hour candle closes below 0.647, I’ll withdraw this view. I still don’t hold any TIA, and I won’t chase it above 0.72.
#TIA #FuturesOpenInterest
It’s clear when this batch of shorts entered. From 2 p.m. to 11 p.m. yesterday, open interest surged from 41.08 million to 52.06 million coins, with an average futures trading price of around 0.689 during that stretch. Most of the new shorts added over the past day have an entry price around 0.69, just 2% below the current price. Futures trading volume over the past 24 hours was $482 million, 11 times spot volume, so this move has basically been driven by futures traders.
Why are they willing to short? The indicators are indeed overheated: daily RSI is 71.3, the 4-hour KDJ J value is 92.2, and the price is hugging the 4-hour Keltner upper band at 0.702. The chart looks toppy, so some are using that as a reason to short. The problem is that the funding rate is almost zero. The latest rate was -0.0037%, so shorts aren’t getting paid; holding on means pure unrealized losses, and every 1% rise adds more pressure.
A quick review of my call. Yesterday afternoon, based on the daily ATR, I estimated TIA could reach around 0.72. It hit a high of 0.7233 at 10 p.m. that night, so that call played out. I said I’d only act if a pullback held at 0.634, but an hour later it dipped to 0.6331 and bounced back—I missed that move.
Structurally, the first support below is the low from early this morning at 0.657, followed by the 4-hour EMA12 at 0.647. Above, there’s last night’s high of 0.7233, then 0.733, the high from November 21 last year and the highest level in nearly 11 months.
My view is that shorts have piled in at a very uncomfortable level this time: their entry price is too close to the current price, and there’s no funding to collect. As long as 0.657 holds, a move to sweep the 0.7233–0.733 area seems more likely. If that breaks, forced short liquidations mean forced buying, and short covering could push the price higher on its own. If a 4-hour candle closes below 0.647, I’ll withdraw this view. I still don’t hold any TIA, and I won’t chase it above 0.72.
#TIA #FuturesOpenInterest