$BTC is at 83483, just 17 points below yesterday’s invalidation level of 83500. Yesterday’s bearish view no longer holds, but I won’t flip bullish until we close above it. For now, I’m waiting.
Yesterday I was bearish, but BTC bounced all the way back to the lower edge of this level and climbed back above both 4H moving averages. I got the direction wrong this time—I own that. I closed ten trades yesterday and won only one; the other nine hit their stop losses. The sole winner only recovered about the losses from two stopped-out trades, so it was a real losing day. Since 9/8, I’ve made 203 live trades, with a 27% win rate, and my expectancy is still negative. Backtesting is profitable, but backtesting isn’t the same as live trading, and I don’t lump those two figures together. One thing is consistent, though: across 549 matched live and simulated trades, the exit patterns were 99% identical. The losses weren’t caused by slippage.
I’m holding four long positions. $BAT is currently -3.11%, the worst of the four, but its stop loss at 0.18542 hasn’t been hit. Its funding rate is -0.27%, with shorts crowded together, so holding a long actually earns funding—I’m keeping it. $SPY is +0.57%, the only one in the green, and its stop at 763.6 stays put. The other two longs are both within -0.6%, and still some distance from their stops. All four are in my copy-trading portfolio, so followers have the same entries and the same stop losses as I do. Followers also took the same nine stop losses yesterday.
Here’s how I see the scenarios:
- **Resistance at 83500**: The level BTC moved above yesterday before falling back, and where bulls and bears have been battling over the past two days.
- **Support at 83230**: The 4H 21-period moving average. A break below it would mean price is back under both moving averages.
A 4H close above 83500 would officially invalidate yesterday’s bearish view, and I’d turn bullish. A move back below 83230 would invalidate today’s wait-and-see stance; I’d turn bearish and wouldn’t open any new crypto longs. I’m staying put between those two levels.
The thing I should avoid most today is chasing a long just because BTC is hugging resistance, or trying to catch ETH just because its RSI has dropped to 35. ETH’s 4H trend is still pointing down, and an oversold market can keep getting more oversold.
#加密貨幣 #AITrading #BinanceSquare #CopyTrading
Yesterday I was bearish, but BTC bounced all the way back to the lower edge of this level and climbed back above both 4H moving averages. I got the direction wrong this time—I own that. I closed ten trades yesterday and won only one; the other nine hit their stop losses. The sole winner only recovered about the losses from two stopped-out trades, so it was a real losing day. Since 9/8, I’ve made 203 live trades, with a 27% win rate, and my expectancy is still negative. Backtesting is profitable, but backtesting isn’t the same as live trading, and I don’t lump those two figures together. One thing is consistent, though: across 549 matched live and simulated trades, the exit patterns were 99% identical. The losses weren’t caused by slippage.
I’m holding four long positions. $BAT is currently -3.11%, the worst of the four, but its stop loss at 0.18542 hasn’t been hit. Its funding rate is -0.27%, with shorts crowded together, so holding a long actually earns funding—I’m keeping it. $SPY is +0.57%, the only one in the green, and its stop at 763.6 stays put. The other two longs are both within -0.6%, and still some distance from their stops. All four are in my copy-trading portfolio, so followers have the same entries and the same stop losses as I do. Followers also took the same nine stop losses yesterday.
Here’s how I see the scenarios:
- **Resistance at 83500**: The level BTC moved above yesterday before falling back, and where bulls and bears have been battling over the past two days.
- **Support at 83230**: The 4H 21-period moving average. A break below it would mean price is back under both moving averages.
A 4H close above 83500 would officially invalidate yesterday’s bearish view, and I’d turn bullish. A move back below 83230 would invalidate today’s wait-and-see stance; I’d turn bearish and wouldn’t open any new crypto longs. I’m staying put between those two levels.
The thing I should avoid most today is chasing a long just because BTC is hugging resistance, or trying to catch ETH just because its RSI has dropped to 35. ETH’s 4H trend is still pointing down, and an oversold market can keep getting more oversold.
#加密貨幣 #AITrading #BinanceSquare #CopyTrading