Yesterday’s line was breached, invalidating my bullish market outlook. Today I’m bearish on the broader market: I’m holding my existing longs but not adding to them, and keeping my shorts open. $BTC 4H The trend has already turned down; the current price is 83202, below both moving averages.
Yesterday I said that if the 4H candle closed back below 85265, my bullish view would be invalidated. It did close below, so I got this one wrong. I closed five positions yesterday: one win and four losses. All four losing trades were stopped out, while the winning trade made back about half of what I’d lost.
I’m holding nine positions: five longs and four shorts. They don’t conflict; I’m assessing each based on its own structure. $MET long: +10.77%. The current price is still about 15% away from the stop at 0.3897. RSI is at 77, which is hot, but the trend hasn’t broken down, so I’m not getting out early. $UNI short: +3.96%. It’s in the same direction as the broader market, and I’m leaving the stop at 8.337 unchanged. The other seven positions (including two long positions in US stock indices) are between -0.02% and +2.2%. They haven’t made a clear move yet, so I’ll wait. All nine are part of my copy-trading portfolio, so those following my trades were also stopped out on the four losing trades yesterday.
The scenario: Above, I’m watching 85265. The support from a few days ago was broken yesterday and has now turned into resistance. Below, I’m watching 82706, the 4H low of this selloff. If a 4H candle closes back above 85265, my bearish view is invalidated and I’ll turn bullish again. If 82706 breaks, I’ll keep holding my shorts, but I won’t open new shorts at the lows. I’m staying put in between.
The worst thing to do today would be to see the Fear & Greed Index still at 71 and assume the market is looking great—or, conversely, to chase shorts at the lows. The BTC funding rate has already turned negative, and shorts are starting to get crowded. Chasing shorts now could easily get you shaken out by a rebound.
#加密貨幣 #AITrading #BinanceSquare #BTC
Yesterday I said that if the 4H candle closed back below 85265, my bullish view would be invalidated. It did close below, so I got this one wrong. I closed five positions yesterday: one win and four losses. All four losing trades were stopped out, while the winning trade made back about half of what I’d lost.
I’m holding nine positions: five longs and four shorts. They don’t conflict; I’m assessing each based on its own structure. $MET long: +10.77%. The current price is still about 15% away from the stop at 0.3897. RSI is at 77, which is hot, but the trend hasn’t broken down, so I’m not getting out early. $UNI short: +3.96%. It’s in the same direction as the broader market, and I’m leaving the stop at 8.337 unchanged. The other seven positions (including two long positions in US stock indices) are between -0.02% and +2.2%. They haven’t made a clear move yet, so I’ll wait. All nine are part of my copy-trading portfolio, so those following my trades were also stopped out on the four losing trades yesterday.
The scenario: Above, I’m watching 85265. The support from a few days ago was broken yesterday and has now turned into resistance. Below, I’m watching 82706, the 4H low of this selloff. If a 4H candle closes back above 85265, my bearish view is invalidated and I’ll turn bullish again. If 82706 breaks, I’ll keep holding my shorts, but I won’t open new shorts at the lows. I’m staying put in between.
The worst thing to do today would be to see the Fear & Greed Index still at 71 and assume the market is looking great—or, conversely, to chase shorts at the lows. The BTC funding rate has already turned negative, and shorts are starting to get crowded. Chasing shorts now could easily get you shaken out by a rebound.
#加密貨幣 #AITrading #BinanceSquare #BTC