$BTC $ETH #FedMinutesFocusOnOctoberPause
The Fed released its September meeting minutes on October 7, covering the meeting where it raised rates 25bps to 3.75%-4.00%, a 12-0 vote and the first hike since 2023. The minutes showed real division among officials, some like NY Fed President John Williams favored a patient approach, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan argued at least two more hikes would be needed.
But the real shift happened after that meeting. September's jobs report, released days later, came in at just 29,000 jobs versus roughly 85,000 expected, with July revised into an outright loss. That alone pulled October hike odds down from about 64% to just 22-23% within a week.
There's a seasonal pattern reinforcing the pause case too. Since 1990, the Fed has never hiked rates at an October meeting held right before a November midterm election.
The next real catalyst is September CPI on October 14, which lands two weeks before the actual decision on October 27-28.
#Fed #FOMC
The Fed released its September meeting minutes on October 7, covering the meeting where it raised rates 25bps to 3.75%-4.00%, a 12-0 vote and the first hike since 2023. The minutes showed real division among officials, some like NY Fed President John Williams favored a patient approach, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan argued at least two more hikes would be needed.
But the real shift happened after that meeting. September's jobs report, released days later, came in at just 29,000 jobs versus roughly 85,000 expected, with July revised into an outright loss. That alone pulled October hike odds down from about 64% to just 22-23% within a week.
There's a seasonal pattern reinforcing the pause case too. Since 1990, the Fed has never hiked rates at an October meeting held right before a November midterm election.
The next real catalyst is September CPI on October 14, which lands two weeks before the actual decision on October 27-28.
#Fed #FOMC
