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U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise on October 7. According to CNBC, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield briefly climbed nearly 8 basis points to 5.35%, its highest level since 2002. The 30-year yield rose to 5.724%, also a 24-year high. Bitcoin weakened in tandem, with CoinDesk prices showing it briefly fell below $83,000.

Tonight: $39 billion 10-year Treasury auction, followed by Fed meeting minutes

The U.S. Treasury will auction $39 billion in 10-year notes on October 7, with results due at 1 p.m. Eastern Time (1 a.m. on October 8 in Taiwan). Markets are watching to see whether yields are high enough to attract buyers, or whether investors will demand an even greater premium. The Treasury auctioned $58 billion in 3-year notes the previous day. A $22 billion 30-year bond auction is also scheduled for October 8, along with at least $4 billion in buybacks targeting maturities of 20 to 30 years—twice the usual amount.

CNBC notes that investors are worried about inflation and rising energy prices. The 10-year yield has risen 60 basis points since the end of July, while U.S. crude prices have gained 20% over the same period. The sell-off has also spread overseas: France’s 10-year government bond yield jumped 12 basis points to 4.876%, and the U.K.’s 10-year government bond yield rose 7 basis points to 5.447%.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting will be released at 2 p.m. Eastern Time (2 a.m. on October 8 in Taiwan). At that meeting, the Fed delivered its first rate hike since 2023. CoinDesk notes that markets have largely ruled out another hike in October, but still expect three more hikes by June 2027, bringing the federal funds rate to 4.50%–4.75%.

Bitcoin falls from $86,600; Ether drops 6%

Wintermute over-the-counter trader De Maere said Bitcoin fell overnight from $86,600 to around $84,000, showing that cryptocurrencies are reacting more sharply to geopolitical pressure than U.S. stocks. He said rising oil prices, Treasury yields, and the dollar are the main sources of pressure, while reports that Iran has stepped up attacks on oil tankers pushed Brent crude above $100. He sees $82,500 as a key support level: if it holds, the current uptrend remains intact, but a break below it could lead to heavier selling.

Ether performed even worse. CoinDesk notes that Ether fell 6% after Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee said the company would stop buying once its holdings reached 5% of the total Ether supply. A brokerage analysis reported on October 6 had warned that a drop in Bitcoin below $84,000 could send it down to $80,000.

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