$BTC Market sentiment gradually converges, and the market structure enters a period of phased recovery.
Overall Bitcoin market sentiment has cooled down from the extreme euphoria of the earlier period, and the market is now in a corrective phase characterized by mild greed and limited incremental momentum. Although the bullish structure has not been broken, market-led buying power has clearly contracted, and it is unlikely that the market will quickly escape into a one-way acceleration rally in the short term.
From the sentiment perspective, the current CMC Fear & Greed Index remains in the 67 greed range. Compared with 73 last week and the monthly high of 78, it has fallen noticeably, and it is also far below the extremely greedy peak of 82 at the end of August. This indicates that speculative fervor has significantly cooled, and the chase-up sentiment has weakened. However, overall capital sentiment is still somewhat optimistic and has not shifted into panic or a fully defensive posture.
In terms of market price levels, $BTC the price is currently stabilizing and ranging within 84,500–85,000. The earlier push toward 87,000–87,300 was capped precisely at the resistance zone and then pulled back. This current correction is not led by bearish players dumping; it is more a technical repair driven by overheated sentiment and active deleveraging by high-leverage capital.
After a recent round of concentrated liquidations, market longs released a large amount of leverage. Overall leverage crowding has dropped significantly, and funding-side pressure has been fully alleviated. The market is no longer in a tightly stretched high-risk condition, and the token/capital structure on the board is more robust than before.
On the macro capital side, spot Bitcoin ETFs still maintain a positive net inflow trend, but the inflow intensity has clearly weakened compared with last week. Funds are further concentrating in the leading product IBIT, indicating a lack of incremental capital and a clear pattern of capital clustering.
At the same time, on-chain data shows that Bitcoin exchange reserves remain around 2.68 million coins. Liquid supply that can be sold on the exchange is relatively low. In the short term, concentrated selling pressure is limited, and the downside has strong support.
The key valuation indicator MVRV is currently around 1.6, still leaving a considerable premium space relative to the historically euphoric bull-market range. The market’s overall valuation is not inflated. Compared with the extremely excited market environment at the end of August, the current market is healthier and has gone through more thorough shakeout, building up strength for the next round of upward move.
Overall:
Market sentiment cools down, leverage deleveraging clears out, selling pressure is limited, and structural repair has been completed.
However, for the next round of trend-driven upswing, determinative conditions are still needed: broad-based incremental buy orders must return, and the price must effectively hold and break through the key resistance zone of 87,000–88,000 to restart a new wave of upswing. Before that, the market will likely maintain a pattern of high-level consolidation with repeated shakeouts.
