U.S. latest employment data came in as expected, showing signs of cooling, providing significant breathing room for near-term macro expectations that have been leaning tight. According to the latest readings from the CME FedWatch tool, traders’ probability pricing for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in October jumped quickly from 72% before the data release to 83%, while the probability of further rate hikes dropped sharply to 17%.
This data is highly significant for long positions, directly alleviating earlier market concerns that tightening policy would intensify further in an aggressive manner. Fed funds futures pricing shows that by the end of 2026, the cumulative rate-hike expectations had fallen from 25.5 basis points to 22.2 basis points, indicating that marginal pressure from the tightening cycle is effectively reaching a peak.
Looking across asset classes, the sharp drop in rate-hike expectations led U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index to retreat from their highs. Reduced pressure from risk-free rates has removed resistance for risk assets, and liquidity conditions are shifting back toward a more constructive pattern of defensive-to-offensive positioning.
For the crypto market, $BTC and the technical patterns of major tokens continue to strengthen under such liquidity-relief signals. As macro pressure eases, on-chain capital and spot buying are expected to pursue smoother upward breakout momentum.📈
#Fed #InterestRates #CryptoMarket
This data is highly significant for long positions, directly alleviating earlier market concerns that tightening policy would intensify further in an aggressive manner. Fed funds futures pricing shows that by the end of 2026, the cumulative rate-hike expectations had fallen from 25.5 basis points to 22.2 basis points, indicating that marginal pressure from the tightening cycle is effectively reaching a peak.
Looking across asset classes, the sharp drop in rate-hike expectations led U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index to retreat from their highs. Reduced pressure from risk-free rates has removed resistance for risk assets, and liquidity conditions are shifting back toward a more constructive pattern of defensive-to-offensive positioning.
For the crypto market, $BTC and the technical patterns of major tokens continue to strengthen under such liquidity-relief signals. As macro pressure eases, on-chain capital and spot buying are expected to pursue smoother upward breakout momentum.📈
#Fed #InterestRates #CryptoMarket