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Right now $BTC is trading at about 84,000 USDT. After a strong rise, the price pulled back to 82,500 and then returned to 84,000.
On the daily chart, the recovery unfolded in several stages. The price rose from the 57,758 USDT area to 62,795, then to 69,313 and above 75,830. The next wave pushed Bitcoin to the 87,385 USDT high.
So, the current 84,000 area appeared after a step-by-step recovery from lower levels.
On the daily chart, the price is above AVL 83,333 and Supertrend 78,264. As long as the price stays above these reference points, the daily recovery structure remains intact.
After the 87,385 USDT high, there was no further continuation of the uptrend. The price returned to 82,519, and then rose again to 84,000.
What does 4H show?
On the 4-hour chart, the move went from 74,909 USDT to 87,385.
After Bitcoin’s strong rally, it approached 85,000 several times but failed to hold above it. Then the price fell to 82,519.
Now $BTC again around 84,000.
AVL is at 83,614, so the price has returned above this level. At the same time, SAR 84,240 and Supertrend 85,118 are above the current price.
On the 4H timeframe, this means the price recovered from a local low, but it has not yet regained the levels located above it.
What’s happening on 15M?
On the 15-minute chart, the recovery looks stronger.
The price rose from the 82,500–83,200 area above the 83,241 level, and then moved closer to 84,000.
Right now the price is around 83,992; AVL is at 83,951, SAR at 83,490, and Supertrend at 83,408.
All three indicators are below the current price. Therefore, the short-term structure after the bounce looks positive.
At the same time, the volume is not showing an abnormal inflow. The latest upswing comes with activity, but there isn’t strong volume confirmation.
What’s happening in futures?
Open interest rose from about 92.7k to 93.1k BTC. Nominal OI increased from about 7.71 to 7.78 billion USDT.
New futures positions continue to open, but the change in OI remains small.
At the same time, the advantage of longs is shrinking.
Among the top traders’ accounts, Long/Short decreased from about 1.50 to 1.37. For positions, the indicator changed from 1.90 to 1.87. The overall Long/Short fell from about 1.43 to 1.31.
Longs still dominate, but their advantage is getting smaller.
Taker volumes are mixed. The chart shows large buys, but sellers are also responding with significant volume. There is no one-sided pressure.
Funding is +0.00383%. Longs pay shorts. Meanwhile, the rate remains moderate.
ETFs and institutional demand
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $2.4 billion in net inflows over the week ending September 25. This was the largest weekly inflow in 2026 and the strongest result since October 2025. At the same time, daily inflows during the week gradually declined: from roughly $999 million on September 21 to $134 million on September 25. (Bitcoin Foundation)
This is an important clarification. The total weekly flow was very large, but its intensity decreased toward the end of the week.
Another source of demand appeared from Strategy. The company bought 1,665 BTC for $142.7 million at an average price of $85,681. After the deal, its holdings were 847,666 BTC. The purchase took place between September 21 and 27 and was disclosed in the company’s filing on September 28. (The Block)
These data indicate strong demand for Bitcoin through exchange products and corporate accumulation. They do not mean the price is obliged to continue rising.
Macroeconomic backdrop
At the same time, pressure from traditional markets remains.
On September 29, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose above 5.27%, reaching a 19-year high. Brent approached $107 per barrel. The market is also pricing in the possibility of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. Reuters noted that the probability of a rate hike by the end of October was estimated at more than 70%. (Reuters)
High bond yields make risk-free instruments more attractive relative to assets that do not generate interest income. At the same time, rising oil prices further intensify inflation concerns.
This creates an additional external factor of pressure on Bitcoin, although based on this data alone we cannot claim that it was the cause of that specific BTC pullback.
Which levels remain on the chart?
83,600–83,200 USDT is the nearest support zone.
Below is 82,500 USDT, where a recent local low was formed.
On top there is the 85,100–85,300 USDT zone. Here are the 4H Supertrend 85,118 and the 85,264 level.
The high at 87,385 USDT remains above.
If it falls below 82,500, the next levels become 79,775 and 77,030 USDT.
Right now, the structure looks like this: the daily chart remains above the main trend indicators, the 4H is under resistance, and the 15M shows recovery. The ETFs saw a large inflow over the week, Strategy continued buying BTC, but in futures the long advantage is decreasing.