According to the latest interest rate swap data from CME FedWatch, the probability that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points in October has surged to 70.9%, while the probability of keeping rates in the 3.75%-4.00% range has fallen to 29.1%. At the same time, expectations for a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike in December have also risen to 58.7%.
This indicates that the derivatives market is rapidly pricing in the path of liquidity tightening, further pushing up expectations for the terminal rate. Behind the repricing of macro liquidity, in essence, the final bearish release is being made for the monetary policy path in the second half of the year.
In traditional financial markets, U.S. Treasury yield curves and the U.S. dollar index have responded with a technical rebound. However, high-probability rate-hike pricing often means expectations have largely been reflected in the market, and the sell fact point where “bad news is out” buy expectations are about to materialize is approaching.
For the crypto market, $BTC demonstrates very strong follow-through at key support levels alongside mainstream risk assets. As the rate-hike probability breaks through the 70% technical threshold, once the “shoe drops,” the window for improving liquidity at the margin will provide strong technical rebound momentum for risk assets.📊
#Fed #InterestRates #CryptoMarket
This indicates that the derivatives market is rapidly pricing in the path of liquidity tightening, further pushing up expectations for the terminal rate. Behind the repricing of macro liquidity, in essence, the final bearish release is being made for the monetary policy path in the second half of the year.
In traditional financial markets, U.S. Treasury yield curves and the U.S. dollar index have responded with a technical rebound. However, high-probability rate-hike pricing often means expectations have largely been reflected in the market, and the sell fact point where “bad news is out” buy expectations are about to materialize is approaching.
For the crypto market, $BTC demonstrates very strong follow-through at key support levels alongside mainstream risk assets. As the rate-hike probability breaks through the 70% technical threshold, once the “shoe drops,” the window for improving liquidity at the margin will provide strong technical rebound momentum for risk assets.📊
#Fed #InterestRates #CryptoMarket