BTC’S BULLISH H1 SETUP FAILED—NOW SELLERS ARE PRESSING SUPPORT.
The latest confirmed BTCUSDT H1 Futures candle closed at $83,999.3. My primary bias is BEARISH, but this is not a market short.
Three clues support the setup:
1️⃣ BTC lost the former $85,150 bullish invalidation level through strong bearish displacement and later traded down to $82,832.
2️⃣ Recovery attempts were rejected at $84,901 and $84,855. Price now sits below the H1 MA20, MA50 and MA100.
3️⃣ The first breakdown candle printed 9.2× its preceding 20-hour average volume. The latest support test used only 0.84× average volume and produced no convincing reversal.
Wyckoff: BTC may be developing redistribution. The $84,901 rejection is a potential LPSY/upthrust candidate, not a confirmed event.
SMC: sellers need an H1 close below $83,850. I only want the short if price then retests $83,900–$84,100 and fails to reclaim it.
🔴 CONDITIONAL SHORT
Trigger: H1 close below $83,850.
Entry: $83,900–$84,100 after a failed retest.
SL: $84,355
TP1: $83,450 (1.5R)
TP2: $82,832 (3.3R)
Thesis invalidation: H1 close above $84,355.
STATUS: BEARISH BIAS — NO ENTRY YET.
The trap is shorting directly into support. No closed-candle break means no entry.
Does BTC finally lose $83,850—or turn this support sweep into a short squeeze? 👀
Paper analysis only. Not financial advice.
$BTC #Wyckoff #SMC
Inviting you to join my group Fual methodologies
The latest confirmed BTCUSDT H1 Futures candle closed at $83,999.3. My primary bias is BEARISH, but this is not a market short.
Three clues support the setup:
1️⃣ BTC lost the former $85,150 bullish invalidation level through strong bearish displacement and later traded down to $82,832.
2️⃣ Recovery attempts were rejected at $84,901 and $84,855. Price now sits below the H1 MA20, MA50 and MA100.
3️⃣ The first breakdown candle printed 9.2× its preceding 20-hour average volume. The latest support test used only 0.84× average volume and produced no convincing reversal.
Wyckoff: BTC may be developing redistribution. The $84,901 rejection is a potential LPSY/upthrust candidate, not a confirmed event.
SMC: sellers need an H1 close below $83,850. I only want the short if price then retests $83,900–$84,100 and fails to reclaim it.
🔴 CONDITIONAL SHORT
Trigger: H1 close below $83,850.
Entry: $83,900–$84,100 after a failed retest.
SL: $84,355
TP1: $83,450 (1.5R)
TP2: $82,832 (3.3R)
Thesis invalidation: H1 close above $84,355.
STATUS: BEARISH BIAS — NO ENTRY YET.
The trap is shorting directly into support. No closed-candle break means no entry.
Does BTC finally lose $83,850—or turn this support sweep into a short squeeze? 👀
Paper analysis only. Not financial advice.
$BTC #Wyckoff #SMC
Inviting you to join my group Fual methodologies
