#fedoctoberratehikeoddsriseto69.7%
🚨 The odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike are 69.7%. But on crypto, you need to watch the other number.
The market suddenly prices in a 69.7% probability of another rate increase in October.
It sounds scary for cryptocurrencies, doesn’t it? 👀
But a probability like this doesn’t tell the whole story.
The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in September, bringing the target interest-rate range to 3.75–4.00%.
Now look at the numbers:
69.7% — odds of a rate hike in October.
25 basis points — the increase in September.
3.75–4.00% — the current target rate range.
~4.9% — the yield on two-year Treasury notes.
And here’s the paradox:
A 69.7% probability doesn’t necessarily mean a 69.7% “shock” will happen.
If the hike is already “priced in,” the decision may trigger a relatively less intense reaction.
The biggest risk could be in subsequent hikes.
Is the Fed signaling another move?
Will Treasury yields keep rising?
Will liquidity tightening get even worse?
That’s where the crypto world becomes more interesting.
Because Bitcoin and altcoins don’t trade based on the Federal Reserve headline alone.
So what happens to crypto if the hike itself is already priced in—but the path after October is not?
#Fed
$BTC
Just market commentary. Not financial advice.
More to follow
🚨 The odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike are 69.7%. But on crypto, you need to watch the other number.
The market suddenly prices in a 69.7% probability of another rate increase in October.
It sounds scary for cryptocurrencies, doesn’t it? 👀
But a probability like this doesn’t tell the whole story.
The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in September, bringing the target interest-rate range to 3.75–4.00%.
Now look at the numbers:
69.7% — odds of a rate hike in October.
25 basis points — the increase in September.
3.75–4.00% — the current target rate range.
~4.9% — the yield on two-year Treasury notes.
And here’s the paradox:
A 69.7% probability doesn’t necessarily mean a 69.7% “shock” will happen.
If the hike is already “priced in,” the decision may trigger a relatively less intense reaction.
The biggest risk could be in subsequent hikes.
Is the Fed signaling another move?
Will Treasury yields keep rising?
Will liquidity tightening get even worse?
That’s where the crypto world becomes more interesting.
Because Bitcoin and altcoins don’t trade based on the Federal Reserve headline alone.
So what happens to crypto if the hike itself is already priced in—but the path after October is not?
#Fed
$BTC
Just market commentary. Not financial advice.
More to follow
