Greetings, dear friends!
Today I’m looking at #BTCUSDT across several timeframes at once. After such a move, it’s important not just to see the price rising, but to understand how it looks on the daily, 4H, and 15M charts—where the nearest levels are and what’s happening with volume, flows, and positioning.
I’ll start with the daily chart.
The price is around 87 200 USDT, and the nearest local high is marked at about 87 395.67.
AVL is at 86 627.89, meaning the price is roughly 600 USDT above this line. In a pullback, I’ll watch how the market reacts to this area. If the price approaches AVL and holds above it, the current structure remains. If it consolidates below, the price’s position relative to this indicator changes.
SAR is at 77 003.05, far below the market. For this indicator, the placement of the points relative to the candles is important: as long as the points are below the price, the SAR uptrend configuration remains. If they move above the candles, the configuration changes.
Supertrend is at 79 554.12, also significantly below the current price.
Thus, on the daily chart the price is above AVL, SAR, and Supertrend. This shows the market’s current position relative to these indicators, but by itself it does not mean that the uptrend will necessarily continue.
On the 4H chart, the price is also above the main reference points.
AVL — 86 973.19, SAR — 86 000, Supertrend — 84 098.77.
I’m paying special attention to the 86 973–87 000 area, because that’s where the 4H AVL is and the price is quite close to it.
If, during the pullback, $BTC holds this area and then starts rising again, the market confirms its value as the nearest reference point. If the price consolidates below, attention shifts to the next levels.
On the 15M chart, the test is even closer.
AVL is at 87 196.21, and the price is around 87 208, meaning the difference is only about 12 USDT.
At the same time, SAR 86 332.51 and Supertrend 86 426.62 remain below the price.
Therefore, on the lower timeframe, what happens near 87 196 is especially important right now. Holding above AVL preserves the current short-term configuration. Consolidating below shifts attention to the 86 426–86 333 area, where the Supertrend and SAR on the 15M chart are located.
Now I’m looking at what factors accompanied this rise.
One of the most notable factors was U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. On September 21, they received $998.95 million in net inflows, the largest daily inflow since October 6, 2025. This doesn’t prove that the ETFs were the cause of the rally, but it shows significant demand for Bitcoin through regulated exchange-traded products.
Another confirmed factor is related to Strategy. The company bought 950 BTC for $75.7 million at an average price of $79,670. After this purchase, its total holdings reached 846,000 BTC.
At the same time as the rally, there were large liquidations of short positions. In 24 hours, more than $750 million worth of crypto positions were liquidated, of which $648.3 million was in shorts. When a short position is liquidated, closing it requires buying the asset. Therefore, such liquidations can accelerate an upmove that has already started. But this is a factor that amplifies the move, not proof that it was the sole cause.
Bitcoin rose at the same time as technology stocks. Against the backdrop of falling oil prices and Treasury yields, investors’ attitude toward risk assets improved. That’s why the current impulse developed not only within the crypto market.
I’m going back to the levels.
The nearest reference point from above on the 4H chart is around 88 078.83. On the daily chart, the next major level is around 90 231.31.
I consider them as sequential price reference points. If BTC approaches 88 078 and confidently breaks above it, the next area to watch becomes 90 231. If a strong reaction from sellers appears near 88 078 and the price falls back, it shows that supply is still clearly visible at this level.
Now I’m looking at OBV.
On the daily chart, OBV is around -38.9K, while MA7 is -46.3K and EMA7 is -47.9K. In other words, the current OBV line is above both averages.
OBV helps compare price movement with volume activity. When price rises at the same time as OBV rises, the move looks more consistent. If price continues to rise while OBV starts falling or lagging significantly, a divergence appears, which can indicate weakening momentum.
The picture on the 4H chart is similar: OBV around 93.3K, MA7 around 89.8K, EMA7 around 89.6K. Here, too, OBV is above its moving averages.
This supports the current movement picture, but it is not a standalone price forecast.
At the same time, the flow data looks less clear-cut.
Over the last 24 hours, the overall flow metric shows 19 028.76 BTC of buys versus 21 580.99 BTC of sells, meaning the net value is about -2 552.23 BTC.
The large net values over five days were also inconsistent: +2 587.79 BTC, -687.24 BTC, +1 844.58 BTC, +1 215.79 BTC, and -1 312.86 BTC.
That’s why I don’t view the current situation as a permanent one-sided capital inflow. Price is rising, but the flow data hasn’t yet shown such a clear and unambiguous picture.
Margin metrics also require caution.
The metric for growth in margin debt first spiked sharply and then declined. The separate long-to-short ratio metric with margin in the shown range changed from about 47.7 to 41.5.
This change by itself is not a reversal signal. It shows a change in margin positioning, which makes sense to assess together with price, volume, and other data.
Now I’m putting the whole picture together.
On the daily chart, the price is above 86 627.89; on the 4H chart, it’s above 86 973.19; and on the 15M chart it is almost touching 87 196.21.
Therefore, the nearest test zone is between 86 973 and 87 196. As long as the price holds above this area, the current structure remains.
Above, I’m watching 88 078.83. If the market breaks through this level and holds above it, the next reference point becomes 90 231.31.
If the price then consolidates below 86 973, attention moves to 86 426–86 333, and then to 86 000. The next larger reference point is at 84 098.77, where the 4H Supertrend is located.
From a fundamental standpoint, the move is accompanied by a significant inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs, Strategy buying 950 BTC, and large liquidations of short positions. These factors coincided in time with the sharp rally and help explain its context, but none of them alone allows us to claim that the move will necessarily continue.
So right now I’m not trying to guess the top. I’m watching how price reacts around two key zones: 86 973–87 000 from below and 88 078.83 from above.
Holding the lower zone keeps the current structure intact. A break above the upper level opens room toward the next reference point 90 231.31. Losing 86 973 and consolidating below shifts attention to the lower levels.
It’s precisely the sequence price → level → reaction → confirmation by volume and other data that currently provides the clearest picture of what’s happening around $BTC