Greetings, dear friends!
Today the chart by $BTC has noticeably changed compared to the previous analysis. At the time the data was captured, BTCUSDT was around 84,188 USDT, with a 24-hour change of approximately +4.77%. During the move, the price reached 85,299.87 USDT, after which a pullback began.
On the 1D chart the price is around 84 179 USDT. AVL is 83 086.56, SAR 75 633.99, Supertrend 75 833.38. The price is above all three values.
On the 4H chart the price is around 84 204.60; AVL 83 882.74; SAR 80 822.72; Supertrend 80 320.04. Here, too, the price is above all three values.
On the 15M chart the price is around 84 188.01; the AVL is higher, at 84 306.68. SAR is 83 971.20, and Supertrend is 83 296.44.
Thus, on the daily and 4H charts, the price remains above the AVL, SAR, and Supertrend. On the 15M chart, the price is already below the AVL, but still above the SAR and Supertrend.
After the high of 85 299.87, several red candles formed on the 15M chart. From the high to the current price, the drop is about 1 100 USDT.
At the same time, the price has not yet reached the 15M SAR level of 83 971.20.
The same is also clearly visible in terms of volumes on the charts.
On the 15M chart, the current volume is around 318 BTC, or 26.8 million USDT. MA(5) is around 685 BTC, and MA(10) is around 942 BTC.
On the 4H chart, the current volume is about 9.66k BTC, or roughly 810 million USDT. MA(5) is around 3.59k BTC, and MA(10) is around 2.75k BTC.
Therefore, the current 4H candle is accompanied by volume above both of the averages mentioned. On the 15M chart, however, the current volume is below MA(5) and MA(10).
OBV on the 4H chart is about 66 877, with MA(7) about 54 133 and EMA(7) about 56 311.
On the 15M chart, OBV is around 15 947, MA(7) around 16 581, and EMA(7) around 15 921.
Now, the Binance flow data.
On the Binance screen, 8 206.1977 BTC of large inflows are shown over the last five days.
Over the last 24 hours, the large inflows metric is roughly at 3 107.79 BTC. On the 24-hour inflows chart, you can see a sharp increase in the metric after about 09:30, after which it rose above 2 000 BTC.
The metric itself only records the flow of BTC, but it does not show what will be done with the received coins. Therefore, you cannot directly link it to future sales or purchases.
Separately, Binance also shows an increase in the long-to-short ratio margin over the last 24 hours: roughly from 43.5 to 46.2.
The long-to-short margin positions ratio increased over the same period from about 104.5 to 110.1.
This is a change in margin metrics, but by itself it does not confirm any further price movement.
Now, the external backdrop.
Today $BTC it rose above 85 000 USDT. The WSJ reported that bitcoin rose to about 85 117 USDT, or roughly +4.7% at the time of publication. The article also notes that the move happened after the Fed raised the rate by 25 basis points and after the CLARITY Act failed to advance in the Senate.
For U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, the previous week ended with net inflows of about $6.2 million. On Friday alone, inflows were $433 million, of which $310.7 million came to FBTC Fidelity. Before that, there were large outflows during the week, so the weekly total turned out to be small.
Therefore, these ETF data show not a steady inflow throughout the week, but a sharp increase in Friday inflows after several days of outflows.
On September 16, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised the rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 3.75–4.00%. The decision was unanimous, with 12 votes against 0.
On September 15, the U.S. Senate did not advance the CLARITY Act. The procedural vote ended 49–50, below the 60 votes required to move the bill forward.
On September 17, the SEC announced a temporary conditional exemption for certain platforms related to trading tokenized stocks. This decision applies to specific conditions and is not a general approval to trade any tokenized stocks.
On September 18, the CFTC submitted a draft regulation for cryptocurrency transaction and market rules for review by the OIRA. The draft’s detailed contents have not been publicly disclosed, so it is not possible to draw conclusions about specific future requirements yet.
On the U.S. market on September 21, futures on major indices were rising, oil was falling by about 2%, and yields on U.S. Treasuries were decreasing. Reuters also reported that bitcoin was up by about 3.5% in the morning session.
Now, the levels.
The main local high on my charts is at 85 299.87 USDT.
On the 15M chart, the 84 306.68 is below, the current AVL.
The next level is at 83 971.20, where the 15M SAR is located.
Even lower is 83 296.44, the current 15M Supertrend.
On the 4H chart, AVL is at 83 882.74. Therefore, the 83 880–83 970 area combines the 4H AVL and the 15M SAR.
If the price returns above 84 306 and continues moving upward, the next reference point will be the previous high at 85 299.87.
If the price falls below the 83 880–83 970 area, the next nearest level on the provided charts will be 83 296.44. Below that is the 4H SAR at 80 822.72.
My current conclusion is simple.
On the 1D and 4H charts, the price is above the AVL, SAR, and Supertrend. On the 15M chart, after reaching 85 299.87, there was a pullback: the price dropped below the AVL, but it still remains above the SAR and Supertrend.
At the same time, the current 4H candle volume is above MA(5) and MA(10), while on the 15M chart the current volume is already below both moving averages.
Therefore, for me the key control levels right now are in the range 83 880–84 000 on the downside and 85 300 on the upside. The way price behaves around these levels will provide more information about the next move than trying to determine its direction in advance.
This is my personal opinion and analysis of market data. The material is for informational purposes only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice, nor a guide for making transactions—especially not using futures and leverage.