đ The oil bomb that doesnât explode
Venezuelan economist Carlos Mendoza PotellĂĄ stirred things up by declaring that Venezuela has around 17,000 oil wells with production capacity but abandoned for years, victims of an obsession with the Orinoco Oil Belt. His remarks, broadcast on UniĂłn Radio, put on the table a structural problem that goes far beyond the industry: it directly affects the flow of foreign currency, exchange-rate pressure, and of course the parallel market for cryptocurrencies.
Mendoza isnât only talking about wells, but about the slowness of recovery: âit doesnât open today and start producing tomorrow,â and he warns that âwe wonât catch the extra million barrels per day in a year, or in two.â This oil reality isnât just a simple macroeconomic fact; itâs the backdrop for the dollarâs price, the shortage of bolĂvares, and the safe haven many Venezuelans seek in USDT.
đ What does oil have to do with P2P?
The connection is more direct than it seems. In a de facto dollarized economy like Venezuelaâs, the supply of dollars depends largely on exports (mainly oil) and remittances. If the oil industry doesnât take off, the inflow of foreign currency is limited, both the official and parallel exchange rates jump, and purchasing power in bolĂvares melts away. Thatâs where the P2P market comes into its own: Venezuelans buy USDT as protection against devaluation, but also as a way to receive payments from abroad or to save in a more stable currency.
When Mendoza points out that current contracts are âwith small companiesâ and that âthe market isnât available so production can be increased at will,â heâs telling us that the country wonât see a rain of petrodollars in the short term. And without that rain, the dollar will keep being a thermometer of uncertainty. For those who operate P2P, this news is a sign that demand for USDT could remain high, and that exchange rates in the parallel market may continue to be subject to volatility.
đ The parallel market, contracts, and uncertainty
The economist also said that the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz removed crude from the market, but prices didnât rise as expected (above $120). This means that even if Venezuela wanted to sell more oil, the revenues wonât be as juicy as at other times. Itâs a scenario of âmore effort, less profit,â whichâcombined with the lack of maintenance for refineries and pipelinesâextends the stagnation.
For those of us who closely follow the Venezuelan economy, this combination of factors (weak oil, sanctions, destroyed infrastructure) is the breeding ground for digital banking and P2P to keep growing. Users arenât expecting some magical solution from the State; they protect themselves with cryptoassets. In fact, in recent months weâve seen how the volume of operations in bolĂvares against USDT remains strong, even when the BCV tries to anchor the official dollar.
đ° P2P and USDT: a safe haven amid uncertainty
Itâs no coincidence that digital wallets and P2P exchanges are part of everyday life for Venezuelans. When oil production doesnât respond, remittances become key, and more and more remittances are arriving in cryptocurrencies. USDT, because itâs pegged to the dollar, becomes the entry door for many households.
Mendoza PotellĂĄ says that âif the companies start working and see the prospects of being able to sell, production begins, but not tomorrow.â That âtomorrowâ is uncertain, and in crypto, uncertainty is synonymous with opportunity for tradersâbut also with risk. Thatâs why, from PitbullChain, we recommend keeping a close eye on oil news: each announcement of contracts or the restart of wells can move the price of the parallel dollar and, consequently, the P2P spread.
đĄď¸ Strategies for traders and savers
If you trade P2P, this information should be on your radar. The news about abandoned wells isnât an isolated fact; itâs an indicator that the flow of traditional dollars wonât bounce back right away. That could translate into:
đ Read the full article: https://pitbullchain.com/noticias/17-000-pozos-abandonados-la-otra-cara-del-dolar-y-el-p2p-en-venezuela-701228
đ Live rates and analysis at https://pitbullchain.com