正乾商学--四条2

26.09.25 Sunny

Happy Mid-Autumn Festival to all my dear ones—may your families reunite and be joyful. Here’s an opening verse for fellow traders and a reminder to each of you.

"Water Melody: A Trader’s Self-Rescue"
Zheng Qian—Four lines, two

I step into the market of shifting clouds,
following ambition and high spirits chasing glitter.
One thought—up or down—can drive me to chase highs and cut losses,
how many times have I asked the horizon for answers.
I once blamed going all-in on being too heavy on position,
but when fully loaded, I still met pullbacks,
floating profits turned into quicksand.
Only then did I understand:
in any market, the hardest thing is the human heart.

Watch the K-line, seek the trend;
distinguish long and short, hold to the high and low.
Stop-loss is not surrender—
risk control protects my lifetime.
Why cling to the win rate?
When gains and losses matter more,
position decides joys and sorrows.
Day after day, review relentlessly—
one trade, one universe opened.

From emotion to discipline;
from impulsiveness to endless calm.
Build your trading system,
and no longer ask the market’s “master.”
When there’s a signal, you act;
without an opportunity, stay in cash.
You can endure the noise.
The market changes a thousand ways—
I keep to my one method.

Win without arrogance; lose without resentment.
Gain without becoming wild; lose without sighing.
Respect every fluctuation,
accept the odds are different.
I don’t need to be right every time—
but when I’m wrong, I must be able to step back,
and keep the spark alive.
In the position, there are measures;
in the heart, there is an endless horizon.

Only by this point do I know trading—
it is also cultivation.
Cultivate away greed, cultivate away fear, cultivate away obsession;
cultivate that restless part of the self.
Don’t stake hope on a headwind;
don’t hand fate to the market.
Take responsibility for gains and losses.
Walk the long road yourself;
carry your own youth and years.

Someday, when looking back,
the whole road will be sand and wind.
Those blown-up accounts and drawdowns
were answers from the old days.
A system isn’t just a sheet of paper,
but the rule you still hold
after a thousand hammerings and refining.
May I use trading to carry myself across,
and answer with this lifetime as well.

Even if the road ahead is layered with waves,
I will still steady the helm.
I won’t show off my skills;
I won’t make a loud fuss over half a page of review.
I don’t envy someone else getting rich overnight—
I only hope to improve year after year.
#币安将上市Hyperliquid（HYPE）
#美国30年期国债收益率触及2004年来最高

26.09.24 Sunny
The amazing Gann bears witness to reversal time once again
Big Bitcoin (BTC) plunges nearly 4,000 points—will the next move be a bull-market pullback or a trend reversal?
Recap of yesterday: BTC surged to around 87,247 and met resistance. Triggered by news-related disturbances, selling pressure came in, and it slid all the way down to a low near 83,450. Ethereum followed in sync, dropping from 2,787 to 2,633. After the rapid sell-off, it hit support and saw funds step in. We’re now entering a consolidation and repair phase.
Overall view:
On the hourly timeframe, bearish momentum has weakened, but it hasn’t flipped to a strong bullish trend. For BTC, near-term support is at 83,450–82,500–81,300, with resistance at 85,400–86,000. For Ethereum, support is at 2,633–2,620–2,605, with resistance at 2,720–2,750–2,791.
Trading tips:
$BTC BTC on a pullback to 83,200–83,500: go long with a light position; targets 84,500–85,500; if it breaks out, look for 86,000
$ETH ETH on a pullback to 2,635–2,665: go long with a light position; targets 2,680–2,705–2,715; if it breaks out, look for 2,750
There are opportunities every day—opportunities are for those who are prepared.
Don’t act unless the chart shows a pattern. No stop-loss, no trade.
If you’re also interested in trading, feel free to leave a message in the comments—let’s exchange ideas, learn together, and grow together.
#美债10年期收益率创19年新高
#比特币现货ETF四日流入23.1亿美元
#比特币两度受阻87300美元

2026.09.23 Cloudy
Unusual events usually mean something is brewing—what big move are they holding back?
The Fed is clearly hawkish, yet BTC/ETH haven’t fallen; instead, capital has flowed back in. Gold has been weighed down by high interest rates and the strength of the dollar. On September 16, the Fed raised rates by 25bp to 3.75%–4.00% and made it clear that inflation is still elevated. On September 22, Fed officials continued to release hawkish signals; Reuters reported that the market at the time assigned roughly a 90% probability to another rate hike in December.
But at the same time:
On September 21, US spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $999 million. On the same day, spot ETH ETFs saw net inflows of about $270 million. BTC briefly surged above $87,300. Over the past few days, BTC has shown a strong squeeze-like push. ETH has already broken above the prior key technical resistance around $2,661, reaching $2,806.
So right now, the most important thing isn’t simply judging “bull vs. bear,” but this:
Risk assets are challenging a hawkish-leaning macro environment. As long as fund flows continue to support, the trend can keep going. But if ETF inflows and spot buying weaken, high leverage may amplify the downside pullback in return. [After a rally, it’s a period where opportunities and risks intertwine—whether to chase blindly or calmly analyze and wait for the high-side/short plan: execute your plan.]
Recent strategy
BTC
①93500-94100: Bull/bear position. If a big bullish candle breaks out and does not break back, keep pushing higher
②88300--90200: Second pressure zone above
③86800-87600: Overhead resistance level. Don’t chase long; you can short briefly, and wait to buy on a pullback
④84600-85500: Pullback range. Watch closely and wait for confirmation
⑤83600-84200: Strong support. Consider trying a long with a small position
⑥80600-81300: If 82500 breaks and then price pulls back into this range, it’s support on a higher time frame and also the turning point of the trend. Be cautious—cautious, and even more cautious
⑦If 80000 breaks, it indicates bulls are weakening, the structure is weakening, and shorts may take over
ETH
①2933-3150: Bull/bear position. If a big bullish candle breaks out and does not break back, keep pushing higher
②2880--2905: Second pressure zone above
③2791--2820: Main overhead resistance. Don’t chase longs; you can short briefly, and wait to buy on a pullback
④2650--2705: Pullback range. Watch closely and wait for confirmation
⑤2550-2565: Strong support; a warning zone for the bulls’ structure
⑥2350--2362: If this pullback range breaks, it’s higher time frame support. If 2336 breaks further, be cautious—cautious, and even more cautious
⑦2180--2226: Deep pullback zone. If 2058 breaks, expect a structure reversal
#加密市场总市值重回3万亿美元

26.09.22 light rain
Yesterday BTC broke above 86,000 again, reached around 87,300 in the early hours, with a gain of over 7%. US spot BTC ETFs saw roughly $433M in net inflows with money staying put; Strategy also bought about 950 BTC.
This strong breakout—driven by liquidations on the short side, heightened short-term market enthusiasm, and the renewed return of ETF capital—means the next focus is whether ETF inflows will continue, and whether the price can hold above 86,000.
Recent strategy:
① Pressure zone above 86,800–87,600. Don’t chase longs; you can short temporarily, then look for a long after a pullback.
② 84,600–85,500 pullback zone. Pay close attention and wait for confirmation.
③ 83,600–84,200: relatively strong support. You can try a long position with a small size.
④ 80,600–81,300. If it breaks 82,500, and then pulls back to this zone, it’s a support level on a higher time frame and also a potential trend reversal point—be cautious, cautious, and even more cautious.
⑤ If 80,000 breaks, it suggests longs are weakening and the structure is weakening as well, with the possibility that shorts take control.
#比特币突破8.5万美元

📢📢📢〽️〽️〽️
26.09.21 Clear
BTC/ETH weekly chart opening shows shrinking volume with an upward move. On lower timeframes, momentum is weak, and on the monthly timeframe there is an “invisible” (hidden) bearish/pressure signal. In the higher-level pressure zone, BTC: 825-833 / ETH: 2705-2727 meets resistance. If BTC breaks above 836 with a bullish candle, then pulls back but fails to break below 815-822, and holds above—then we could continue moving upward, standing above 860 to look at 876-935; possibly even higher. For ETH: if a bullish candle breaks above 2755, then the pullback to 2705-2727 holds (does not break), then it can continue upward, holding above 2791 to target around 2820. If it cannot hold, it would be a bull trap, leading to a deep pullback.

My personal bias is high selling, low buying. The reasons are simple: volume is insufficient for a rally, the monthly timeframe shows the “invisible” signal, and October starts high but turns lower.

BTC: Take the first position at 820 to prevent missing the breakout—risk 1%. Add at 842-855, 1% more. Add the third position at 876, 3%. Stop-loss: 93500.
ETH: Take the first position at 2727-2755 to prevent missing the breakout—risk 1%. Add at 2773-2791, 1% more. Add the third position around 2820, 3%. At each level, if large bearish candles appear, add positions in the direction of the move—wait to “eat the meat,” and hold long-term, waiting for BTC: 530-462; and a spike down to 350. For ETH: 1328-1196, spike down to 1070.

#以太坊突破2700美元

Are you really suited to make a living by trading?
Part [7]

After reading the previous few articles, let’s use our brains to think together:

Everyone doesn’t have to chase a single, unified “correct” answer—you can simply reply:

① If you currently have no trading income at all, do you still have enough stable sources of income to support your life?

② Does your current daily routine really fit the trading time you’re working with?

③ Do you think your personality is better suited to Scalping, Day Trading, or Swing Trading? Why?

④ What’s your biggest problem right now—are you “not good at trading,” or is your lifestyle environment itself not suitable for the way you’re trading right now?

There is no right answer.

I just hope that the “babes” can use these questions to reorganize your trading logic again.

If you’re interested in trading, feel free to leave a message in the comments or join the chat room to exchange ideas together—learn together and grow together!
#Zcash现货ETF月度净流入超2.3亿美元
#比特币突破8万美元大关

Are you really suited to make a living by trading?
Part Six

⑥ Finally, ask yourself one more question

Do you really spend a lot of time every day learning and analyzing?

Many people ask me:

“Why don’t I have results even after trading for a year?”

But if you dig in carefully:

How many hours do you actually spend learning every day?

Do you do a review afterward?

Do you keep a trading log?

Do you track your win rate, profit-to-loss ratio, and maximum drawdown?

Do you analyze what kinds of market conditions you are most likely to make mistakes in?

In the end, you’ll find that:

In fact, many people don’t really do it.

So some people say:

“I’m not good at trading, so trading isn’t for me.”

I think that conclusion was reached too quickly.

You should first ask yourself:

Have I really built a trading environment that suits me?

Have I really found a trading approach that fits my personality?

Have I really put in enough time to learn?

Have I systematically verified my method?

If these questions still haven’t been resolved,

then it’s time to say:

“Trading isn’t working.”

Actually, it’s still too early.

Finally, what I want to say is:

Many people understand “successful trading” as:

Finding a magical indicator.

But in reality, truly long-term, stable trading is more like a complete system:

your income structure
＋your lifestyle
＋your trading
＋your personality
＋a trading style that suits you
＋knowledge
＋risk management
＋mental resilience

As long as any one of these elements has been a problem for a long time,

it may eventually show up in your trading results.

So before asking:

“Can I get rich by trading?”

first ask yourself:

“Is my current life really already prepared for me to become a trader?”

This may be far more important than learning another indicator.

If you’re interested in trading, feel free to leave a comment in the comment section or join the chat room to exchange ideas and learn together and grow together!
#Paradigm披露持有ZEC #Paradigm披露持有ZEC

Are you really suited to make a living by trading?
Serial [5]

⑤ Only after you solve the first four questions will you truly stand at the starting line of trading

Pay attention.

What I covered earlier—

income sources, daily routine, time you can trade, trading instruments, your personal character, your trading style…

All of it is just to help you reach: the starting line.

Not the finish line.

Only after you’ve truly reached the starting line do you begin the part everyone is most familiar with:

learning.

And not learning one or two indicators;

not stopping once you know what support and resistance are.

You must first gain broad understanding of:

Scalping—very short-term trading / scalp trading: frequent trades within a very short time (seconds to minutes) to profit from small price fluctuations
Day Trading: opening and closing positions on the same day, without holding overnight
Swing Trading: capturing market swings over several days to a few weeks, aiming to profit from swing trends
Trend Following: trading in line with the market’s main direction—for example, going long in an uptrend and short in a downtrend
Breakout Trading: entering the market when price breaks through a key resistance or support level
Mean Reversion: trading that assumes when price deviates from normal levels, it will return to the average value, seeking opportunities from that
Technical Analysis: analyzing the market through candlesticks, indicators, volume, and price structure
Fundamental Analysis: studying a project’s value—such as the team, economic data, industry development, and more
Macro: macroeconomic analysis studying how the global economic environment (interest rates, inflation, the US dollar, policies, etc.) affects the market
Risk Management: controlling trading risk, including stop-losses, position sizes, and capital protection
Position Sizing: position management—deciding how much capital to risk or allocate to each trade based on your account size and risk
Trading Psychology: managing emotions, discipline, and execution ability to prevent fear and greed from affecting your trading

Then test them one by one.

You must personally know:

what suits you.
what doesn’t suit you.

This is not something others can tell you directly.

If you’re interested in trading, feel free to leave a comment in the comment section or join the chat room to exchange ideas—learn together and grow together!
#美联储加息25基点美股收跌

Come

Are you really suited to making a living by trading?
Part Four

④ Is your personality suited to your current trading style?

This is also a very important question.

Everyone’s personality is different.

Some people are very impatient.

Some people have a lot of patience.

Some people like to see results quickly.

Some people can keep their position for several weeks and feel absolutely no anxiety.

So different people are naturally suited to different trading approaches.

For example:

People who are relatively fast and make decisions quickly

may be better suited for:

Scalping / ultra-short-term trading

because you like to judge quickly, execute quickly, and exit quickly.

People with a medium-paced rhythm

may be better suited for:

Day Trading / intraday trading

You don’t need to make decisions in just seconds or minutes,

but you also don’t need to hold your J-structure positions for days or even weeks.

People who are more patient and don’t like frequent trading

may be better suited for:

Swing Trading / swing trading

You’re willing to wait,

and you can also accept “not doing anything today.”

But many people’s biggest problem is that they force themselves to do a type of trading that doesn’t match their personality at all.

A person who is extremely impatient

yet forces themselves to do swing trading for two months.

Every day they want to open the exchange to check,

every day they want to adjust,

and in the end, they turn an originally correct trade into a bad one.

Or someone who naturally thinks more slowly and likes thorough analysis

but forces themselves to do one-minute K;Scalping.

That is also very painful.

So don’t start by asking:

“Which trading style is the most profitable?”

You should ask first:

“Which trading style is the best fit for me?”

If you’re interested in trading, feel free to leave a message in the comments or join the chat room to exchange ideas—learn together and grow together!
#比特币跌至7.6万美元
#美联储加息是否已成定局