25 bps are already discounted?
Is there something about this Fed meeting that stands out to me.
A 25 bps hike already looks like the scenario the market expects.
The probabilities got to around 93%, so it’s hard to think that the hike by itself will surprise too much.
And then there’s August core CPI: +0.3% month-over-month, above the +0.2% the market expected.
So what is it that could really move the market?
For me, it’s not so much those 25 bps, but the message that comes after.
If the Fed makes it clear that this is a one-off adjustment, BTC’s reaction, tech stocks, and gold could be very different from a scenario where it still sees room to keep tightening monetary policy.
That’s why I think this time it’s more important to listen to the speech than to look only at the interest-rate number.
The question I’m left with is:
The market is already prepared for the 25 bps, but is it prepared for what the Fed says afterward?
#FedRateWatch
Is there something about this Fed meeting that stands out to me.
A 25 bps hike already looks like the scenario the market expects.
The probabilities got to around 93%, so it’s hard to think that the hike by itself will surprise too much.
And then there’s August core CPI: +0.3% month-over-month, above the +0.2% the market expected.
So what is it that could really move the market?
For me, it’s not so much those 25 bps, but the message that comes after.
If the Fed makes it clear that this is a one-off adjustment, BTC’s reaction, tech stocks, and gold could be very different from a scenario where it still sees room to keep tightening monetary policy.
That’s why I think this time it’s more important to listen to the speech than to look only at the interest-rate number.
The question I’m left with is:
The market is already prepared for the 25 bps, but is it prepared for what the Fed says afterward?
#FedRateWatch