Most people trading this week are about to lose money on a decision that's already been made.
The 90% odds on a Fed hike aren't the story, that's already priced in and everyone knows it. What nobody's positioned for is the fifteen minutes after the announcement, when Powell either confirms this is a one-off or hints there's more coming before year end. That's the part that actually moves price.
August core CPI came in at 0.3% month over month, hot enough to lock in the hike but not hot enough to force anything aggressive. My read: hike plus dovish-ish tone, $BTC
and tech dip on the headline and claw it back within a day or two. Same pattern all cycle, sell the rumor, buy the confirmed pause.$GOLD.US
's the one I'm actually watching, since it doesn't need bad news to hold, it just needs the uncertainty to stick around a bit longer.
I'm not opening anything new until the presser wraps. The print isn't the signal. The tone is.
One hike and done, or the start of something longer? Tell me how you're positioned, I read every comment on this one.
Follow for more through #FOMC week.
#FedRateWatch #FOMOalert
The 90% odds on a Fed hike aren't the story, that's already priced in and everyone knows it. What nobody's positioned for is the fifteen minutes after the announcement, when Powell either confirms this is a one-off or hints there's more coming before year end. That's the part that actually moves price.
August core CPI came in at 0.3% month over month, hot enough to lock in the hike but not hot enough to force anything aggressive. My read: hike plus dovish-ish tone, $BTC
and tech dip on the headline and claw it back within a day or two. Same pattern all cycle, sell the rumor, buy the confirmed pause.$GOLD.US
's the one I'm actually watching, since it doesn't need bad news to hold, it just needs the uncertainty to stick around a bit longer.
I'm not opening anything new until the presser wraps. The print isn't the signal. The tone is.
One hike and done, or the start of something longer? Tell me how you're positioned, I read every comment on this one.
Follow for more through #FOMC week.
#FedRateWatch #FOMOalert