#FedRateWatch
Hike or Hold — Not Cut Anymore
NFP, PPI, and CPI all came in hot. Core CPI is still well above the Fed's 2% target. Rate-cut odds are basically dead — the real question now is whether the Fed hikes or just holds.
Quick context: Powell wasn't removed — his term simply ended in May 2026 after years of Trump pushing for cuts. Kevin Warsh, seen as the rate-cut-friendly pick, took over. But since Jackson Hole, Warsh has sounded hawkish, flagging that underlying inflation hasn't really improved. If the guy brought in to cut rates is now leaning toward a hike, it says the data is driving this, not the person in the chair — which is arguably a good sign for Fed independence.
Scenario 1: 25bp Hike
Hot inflation + a strong labor market + Warsh's own tough talk make this the base case (~85% odds per CME FedWatch/Polymarket).
Stocks: pressure, especially growth/tech/real estate
Bonds: yields up, prices down
Dollar: stronger
Gold/crypto: pressured, some offset from "Fed is serious" narrative
Scenario 2: Hold Steady
Fed avoids overreacting to one print, waits to confirm the trend is real.
Stocks: relief rally, capped if guidance still points to a later hike
Bonds: modest relief, long end stays elevated
Dollar: softer
Gold/crypto: some support if the pause looks credible
Bottom line: We went from "when does the Fed cut" to "will it hike" in a few months. Whatever happens today, inflation data — not who's in charge — is calling the shots.
Not financial advice.
#ClarityActOddsHalveOnPolymarket #cpi #fomc #Fed
$LSK $AKE $AIN
Hike or Hold — Not Cut Anymore
NFP, PPI, and CPI all came in hot. Core CPI is still well above the Fed's 2% target. Rate-cut odds are basically dead — the real question now is whether the Fed hikes or just holds.
Quick context: Powell wasn't removed — his term simply ended in May 2026 after years of Trump pushing for cuts. Kevin Warsh, seen as the rate-cut-friendly pick, took over. But since Jackson Hole, Warsh has sounded hawkish, flagging that underlying inflation hasn't really improved. If the guy brought in to cut rates is now leaning toward a hike, it says the data is driving this, not the person in the chair — which is arguably a good sign for Fed independence.
Scenario 1: 25bp Hike
Hot inflation + a strong labor market + Warsh's own tough talk make this the base case (~85% odds per CME FedWatch/Polymarket).
Stocks: pressure, especially growth/tech/real estate
Bonds: yields up, prices down
Dollar: stronger
Gold/crypto: pressured, some offset from "Fed is serious" narrative
Scenario 2: Hold Steady
Fed avoids overreacting to one print, waits to confirm the trend is real.
Stocks: relief rally, capped if guidance still points to a later hike
Bonds: modest relief, long end stays elevated
Dollar: softer
Gold/crypto: some support if the pause looks credible
Bottom line: We went from "when does the Fed cut" to "will it hike" in a few months. Whatever happens today, inflation data — not who's in charge — is calling the shots.
Not financial advice.
#ClarityActOddsHalveOnPolymarket #cpi #fomc #Fed
$LSK $AKE $AIN