According to the CME latest interest rate observation tool data, the probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points at the upcoming FOMC meeting has climbed to 92.4%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is only 7.6%. Looking ahead to October, the probability of maintaining rates further declines to 4%, while the probabilities of a 25-basis-point and a 50-basis-point hike are 52% and 44%, respectively—indicating extremely high pricing in the market for the continuation of a tightening policy.
From a technical and market-structure perspective, a 92.4% rate-hike expectation means that the harshest policy pressure has already been fully digested by the price action (priced in). In macro trading, when certainty reaches such an extreme level, it often signals a turning point where negative news has been exhausted. The market has already completed position restructuring and deleveraging under this expectation; the incremental downside selling pressure is now fading.
In traditional financial markets, U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar Index are likely to consolidate and form a top in the short term around key resistance levels. Once the rate-hike “shoe” is officially on the ground, and as expectations are realized, the Dollar Index is prone to take-profit-driven technical pullbacks, thereby creating a strong window for liquidity rebounds in commodities and broader risk assets.
For the crypto market, if $BTC holds the key technical support range, the realization of macro certainty would greatly bolster buyers’ confidence. After the negative news is priced in, liquidity typically quickly returns to oversold high-beta assets, potentially driving a round of technical rebound in crypto markets dominated by short covering.
#Fed #InterestRates #CryptoMarket
From a technical and market-structure perspective, a 92.4% rate-hike expectation means that the harshest policy pressure has already been fully digested by the price action (priced in). In macro trading, when certainty reaches such an extreme level, it often signals a turning point where negative news has been exhausted. The market has already completed position restructuring and deleveraging under this expectation; the incremental downside selling pressure is now fading.
In traditional financial markets, U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar Index are likely to consolidate and form a top in the short term around key resistance levels. Once the rate-hike “shoe” is officially on the ground, and as expectations are realized, the Dollar Index is prone to take-profit-driven technical pullbacks, thereby creating a strong window for liquidity rebounds in commodities and broader risk assets.
For the crypto market, if $BTC holds the key technical support range, the realization of macro certainty would greatly bolster buyers’ confidence. After the negative news is priced in, liquidity typically quickly returns to oversold high-beta assets, potentially driving a round of technical rebound in crypto markets dominated by short covering.
#Fed #InterestRates #CryptoMarket