The latest publicly issued remarks by White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett clearly state that he and former President Trump both believe there is currently no reason at all to raise interest rates. He also emphasized that it is crucial for the Federal Reserve to maintain its existing policy stance before the election, while noting that Trump fully respects the independence of Fed Governor Christopher Waller.
From a macro trading logic perspective, this statement has greatly removed tail risks in the market related to a further tightening of monetary policy at key time nodes. Previously, some institutions’ hawkish expectations for rate hikes driven by sticky inflation were quickly disproven, and the overall macro policy stance has become more clearly anchored in a channel of “keeping the status quo or shifting toward easing.”
Bolstered by this liquidity-stabilizing signal, resistance to an upside move in the U.S. dollar index has increased significantly, and the short end of the U.S. Treasury yield curve has come under pressure and fallen back. Judging from the price action, the confirmation and stabilization of expectations for risk-free interest rates at their peak has directly freed up room for a rebound in risk assets. The stock market and commodities such as gold have formed bullish support platforms in their technical patterns, and market liquidity preference has improved markedly.
For the crypto market, the all-clear on the rate-hike alarm serves as an excellent catalyst for a risk-on preference repair. $BTC shows solid buy support at a key support level; the funding rate and open interest structure are gradually stabilizing. If trading volume cooperates to break through the upper key resistance zone, the overall structure is expected to deliver a strong push higher. #Fed #MacroEconomics #InterestRates
From a macro trading logic perspective, this statement has greatly removed tail risks in the market related to a further tightening of monetary policy at key time nodes. Previously, some institutions’ hawkish expectations for rate hikes driven by sticky inflation were quickly disproven, and the overall macro policy stance has become more clearly anchored in a channel of “keeping the status quo or shifting toward easing.”
Bolstered by this liquidity-stabilizing signal, resistance to an upside move in the U.S. dollar index has increased significantly, and the short end of the U.S. Treasury yield curve has come under pressure and fallen back. Judging from the price action, the confirmation and stabilization of expectations for risk-free interest rates at their peak has directly freed up room for a rebound in risk assets. The stock market and commodities such as gold have formed bullish support platforms in their technical patterns, and market liquidity preference has improved markedly.
For the crypto market, the all-clear on the rate-hike alarm serves as an excellent catalyst for a risk-on preference repair. $BTC shows solid buy support at a key support level; the funding rate and open interest structure are gradually stabilizing. If trading volume cooperates to break through the upper key resistance zone, the overall structure is expected to deliver a strong push higher. #Fed #MacroEconomics #InterestRates