BTC has recently shown a rather strange phenomenon.
In the past week, US spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $987 million, and this marks the third consecutive week of net inflows.
Over the past three weeks combined, net ETF inflows are close to $3.8 billion.
In theory, with such strong buying pressure coming in, BTC should keep pushing higher.
But what’s actually happening?
After BTC surged to around $82,000–$83,000, it was pushed back to around $79,000.
Where did the money really go?
The answer may be on the other side:
ETFs are buying, but old coins are also being sold.
Glassnode’s latest Accumulation Trend Score shows that all major Bitcoin wallet cohorts have collectively shifted into a “distribution” state for the first time since early June.
The overall composite score is about 0.37.
The closer this indicator is to 1, the more it suggests accumulation;
The closer it is to 0, the more it suggests distribution.
And this time, the most obvious selling came from:
whales holding more than 1,000 BTC.
What has this batch of funds been doing before?
When BTC was trading sideways around $60,000, most wallet cohorts had been accumulating for nearly three consecutive months.
Now that BTC has risen from around $60,000 back up to around $80,000, some low-cost holders are beginning to realize profits.
So the market has formed a very interesting structure:
ETF money keeps flowing in.
Institutions like Strategy have restarted buying BTC.
But at the same time, early whales and some low-level funds are handing their coins over.
So around $80,000, what’s likely happening isn’t a simple “bulls vs. bears battle.”
It’s instead:
a massive rotation of holdings.
Old holders are selling.
New institutions are taking it.
This also explains why the ETF data looks so great, yet the BTC price hasn’t immediately taken off.
Many people see “$1 billion in ETF inflows” and simply interpret it as:
$1 billion worth of buy orders = BTC will rise right away.
In reality, the price ultimately depends on the supply-demand gap.
If ETFs buy $1 billion, and on the other side there happen to be $1 billion—or even more—of coins willing to be sold, then the result is:
the money comes in, but the price doesn’t move much.
But this also can’t be understood directly as a bearish signal.
Because the truly important question is:
How many coins are the whales still willing to sell around $80,000?
If ETF inflows keep coming in, but whale selling gradually fades, these coins will eventually be absorbed.
Once the sell wall at $83,000 gets eaten through, resistance above the market could ease significantly.
Conversely, if BTC ETF inflows start to decline, while whales continue distributing, then around $80,000 it may shift from a “rotation zone” to a “distribution zone.”
So when you judge BTC next, don’t only watch the ETF—and don’t only look at whale addresses.
You should really monitor both at the same time:
whether ETF capital can keep flowing in.
when whales holding more than 1,000 BTC stop distributing.
At the moment BTC is around $79,400, and $83,000 is still the most obvious sell-pressure zone.
So the core of this current market move can be summarized in one sentence:
Wall Street is buying BTC from the old whales’ hands.
Who runs out first will determine the direction of the next leg.
If whales stop selling before anything else, $83,000 could be broken through.
If the ETF runs out of funds first, then the rotation around $80,000 may continue downward in search of new buyers.
$BTC #bitcoin #BTC #etf