🔥 CPI IS THE NEXT BIG TEST FOR BITCOIN
After the strong US jobs report, markets are again pricing a possible Fed rate hike.
Now inflation matters most.
📅 Sept. 10 — #PPI
📅 Sept. 11 — #CPI
🏦 Sept. 15–16 — #FOMC
Current CPI expectations:
• Headline: +0.4% MoM
• Core: +0.2% MoM
📈 Hot CPI
→ hike odds rise
→ 2Y Treasury yield rises
→ real yields rise
→ USD strengthens
→ pressure on BTC and altcoins
📉 Soft CPI
→ hike odds fall
→ Treasury yields can move lower
→ cost of capital eases
→ BTC gets room to recover
But the CPI number itself is not enough.
Watch 2Y Treasury and real yields after the release. If CPI comes in soft but yields barely move, the market has not really changed its view of Fed policy.
⚠️ Altcoins can react much harder than BTC because of thinner liquidity and leverage. High Open Interest can turn the first move into a liquidation cascade.
CPI → #Fed expectations → Treasury yields → USD → Bitcoin → altcoins
NFP showed that the #US economy can handle high rates.
CPI will show whether the Fed has a reason to push them even higher.
$DOOD $XAN $NAORIS
After the strong US jobs report, markets are again pricing a possible Fed rate hike.
Now inflation matters most.
📅 Sept. 10 — #PPI
📅 Sept. 11 — #CPI
🏦 Sept. 15–16 — #FOMC
Current CPI expectations:
• Headline: +0.4% MoM
• Core: +0.2% MoM
📈 Hot CPI
→ hike odds rise
→ 2Y Treasury yield rises
→ real yields rise
→ USD strengthens
→ pressure on BTC and altcoins
📉 Soft CPI
→ hike odds fall
→ Treasury yields can move lower
→ cost of capital eases
→ BTC gets room to recover
But the CPI number itself is not enough.
Watch 2Y Treasury and real yields after the release. If CPI comes in soft but yields barely move, the market has not really changed its view of Fed policy.
⚠️ Altcoins can react much harder than BTC because of thinner liquidity and leverage. High Open Interest can turn the first move into a liquidation cascade.
CPI → #Fed expectations → Treasury yields → USD → Bitcoin → altcoins
NFP showed that the #US economy can handle high rates.
CPI will show whether the Fed has a reason to push them even higher.
$DOOD $XAN $NAORIS
