AAVE surged to 140.15 today and then fell back to 134.58. It looks like choppy trading at a high level, but in reality spot and futures are contradicting each other.
The most eye-catching thing on the spot side: over the past three hours, net outflows reached $167k, and none of the 12 bars were red. In the intraday 15-minute sampling, aggressive buy volume once hit 13x, but that was only a burst; large orders did not keep stepping in.
On the futures side, however, the tone is bull_strong: OI increased by 8.32% compared with a day ago. But this round of adding positions was on the wrong side — aggressive selling outweighed buying, the basis turned negative, the funding rate at 0.0088% was so cheap that no one was paying to chase longs, and the share of whale long positions was cut by 3.77% over 7 hours.
Conclusion: the surge in OI looks more like new short positions building below 140 and trapped longs averaging down, not smart money accumulating. I chose to short: enter on rebounds near 135, target a retest of today's low at 128.4, and place the stop above 140.15.
What signal would make me turn bullish? Spot net flow turning positive over 3 hours and large orders entering continuously, or a volume-backed reclaim of 140.15 — only then would this OI move count as a real breakout. #aave $AAVE
The most eye-catching thing on the spot side: over the past three hours, net outflows reached $167k, and none of the 12 bars were red. In the intraday 15-minute sampling, aggressive buy volume once hit 13x, but that was only a burst; large orders did not keep stepping in.
On the futures side, however, the tone is bull_strong: OI increased by 8.32% compared with a day ago. But this round of adding positions was on the wrong side — aggressive selling outweighed buying, the basis turned negative, the funding rate at 0.0088% was so cheap that no one was paying to chase longs, and the share of whale long positions was cut by 3.77% over 7 hours.
Conclusion: the surge in OI looks more like new short positions building below 140 and trapped longs averaging down, not smart money accumulating. I chose to short: enter on rebounds near 135, target a retest of today's low at 128.4, and place the stop above 140.15.
What signal would make me turn bullish? Spot net flow turning positive over 3 hours and large orders entering continuously, or a volume-backed reclaim of 140.15 — only then would this OI move count as a real breakout. #aave $AAVE
