🎯 TP1: $105.86 (+1.96%) │ TP2: $107.17 (+3.21%)
🛑 SL: $99.72 (-8.00%) │ R/R: 1 : 0.4
⚠️ The stop-loss is wider than the second target (R/R < 1) — it is more likely to reach the closer target, but you must calculate the trade size based on the stop-loss size.
The underlying background
Over the past week, Solana received a tangible fundamental boost, represented by the rollout of the new v1 transaction format and the reduction of the Slot duration to 350 milliseconds, reinforcing the network scalability narrative. At the same time, with continued institutional demand through ETF fund channels and an overall improvement in risk appetite across the crypto market, the asset is gaining additional support without any major macroeconomic shocks that would disrupt this trend. No important macroeconomic data is expected in the coming days that would reverse this direction, so the market remains focused on technical structure and liquidity flows toward alternative coins (Altcoins).
Technical picture
The price stabilized within the Ichimoku Cloud and is currently trading near the Tenkan line at $103.74, suggesting a struggle in short-term momentum. The Kijun line at $106.38 represents the closest resistance level. A clear, sustained breakout above this level will be necessary to move into an active bullish phase. The CCI at -51.0 points to a neutral area leaning toward weakness, without sharp oversold conditions, leaving room for recovery. Support at Senkou B around $102.71 remains a key boundary; holding it supports the cloud structure in favor of buyers. The ATR at 1.39 indicates moderate volatility, enough for a gradual move toward the upper end of the range without sharp swings.
Probability model
The market is in an uptrend, but the probabilities are very close:
🟢 Bullish continuation: 37%
🟡 Sideways movement: 28%
🔴 Bearish scenario: 34%
This distribution is common during consolidation periods within the Ichimoku Cloud before a breakout occurs. The bullish breakout scenario is the most technically favorable, but it requires confirmation through trading volume, especially as the OBV indicator remains in a neutral zone. If no external negative factors emerge, a gradual rise toward the Kijun line at $106.38 is likely, after which the strength of buyers and sellers can be reassessed.
Trend
🟢 Buy (BUY) — The price is testing the Tenkan line with support from the Ichimoku Cloud, limiting the likelihood of a further drop thanks to support from Senkou B.
