Jackson Hole sends a somewhat hawkish signal. Fed policymakers emphasized that U.S. businesses’ investment has accelerated and the labor market remains solid. Credit spreads have not shown signs of tightening. As inflation has not yet been clearly and rapidly brought back to the 2% target range, policymakers still retain the option of further rate hikes. As a result, short-term U.S. Treasuries saw heavy selling: the yield on the 2-year note rose by 5 basis points to 4.28%, while the yield on the 30-year note edged down by 1 basis point to 5.19%.

From a technical and macro pricing perspective, this spike higher in short-end yields may boost near-term expectations of rate hikes and suppress some risk appetite. However, its underlying support comes from strong real-economy fundamentals and a healthy credit environment, which effectively rules out the risk of a hard landing liquidity crunch in the near term.

The short-term pullback and consolidation looks more like a healthy deleveraging and rotation to build momentum. With no signs of a recession in the fundamentals, once liquidity digests the hawkish expectations, mainstream crypto assets such as $BTC will likely find stronger support at key technical levels. A structurally upward trend still has solid macro backing.📈

#Fed #宏观分析 # cryptocurrency