1. The U.S. public debt crisis and pressure on Treasury bond yields
The U.S. public debt has officially surpassed the $40 trillion mark, reflecting an ongoing inflation in the scale of the fiscal burden. The direct consequence is that the yields on U.S. government bonds with maturities of 10 and 30 years have been pushed to record highs, approaching and even exceeding the peaks seen during the 2007–2008 financial crisis. Countries holding large amounts of debt, such as Japan, China, and the UK, continue the trend of reducing the proportion of U.S. Treasury bonds in their reserves, shifting capital flows toward safer assets like gold.
2. Global energy market and inflation pressure
Geopolitical developments in maritime hotspots, especially the strategic route through the Strait of Hormuz, continue to show a state of congestion. Limited supply, along with a sharp decline in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)—to its lowest level in 50 years—has kept oil and fuel prices elevated. This places significant pressure on the global inflation index, making it difficult for central banks’ monetary policy to ease early.
3. Cash Flow Analysis: Gold, Crypto, and Market Structure
Gold
Thanks to its hedging role against the risk of value loss of debt assets and inflation, gold prices have maintained a positive recovery trend and established a solid base.
Crypto market
The recent growth surge of Bitcoin and Altcoins is mainly technical recovery in nature and involves position rebalancing (short/long squeeze). The emergence of new regulatory frameworks such as the Genius Act or the Clarity Act has integrated Crypto trading structure more deeply with the USD financial system. Tightening P2P cash-flow management and stricter identity requirements have sharply reduced free-flowing capital. Due to a shortage of low-cost liquid capital, the market is unlikely to generate a breakout for a new cycle in the short term; it will instead move around technical balance zones.
Given that the cost of capital remains high and speculative cash flow is tightly controlled, investment strategies should focus on risk management, prioritizing assets with realistic valuation fundamentals rather than chasing short-term market swings.