Gold is soaring, but not just because of US-Iran tensions.
$XAU just surpassed $4,400, reaching its highest level in about two months. And I see three factors simultaneously driving the price:
1️⃣ The Fed is becoming less hawkish
Weaker-than-expected US jobs reports have reduced market bets on the Fed raising interest rates. Now all eyes are on the July CPI to see if this trend continues.
2️⃣ China continues to accumulate gold
The PBOC just increased its reserves by nearly 20 tons in July, its strongest monthly purchase since October 2023 and the 21st consecutive month of gold reserve increases.
3️⃣ Risk-off returns
US-Iran negotiations on Hormuz have yet to reach a final agreement. Iran has added further conditions, while the US has not fully met them → the risk of oil supply disruptions is being reassessed.
My perspective:
Gold is currently in a rather unique setup: Fed uncertainty, central-bank demand, and geopolitical risk are all converging.
The question is no longer whether Gold can reach $4,500?
Instead, the question is: Will the upcoming CPI be high enough to break this upward trend? 👀
#GoldChallenges$4380 #XAU