AAVE is currently around 141u, up 64 points over the past 7 days, with the price staying near the 24-hour high of 145 without much pullback.
At this level, I won’t chase.
After it’s run up this far, the recent capital flows are a bit interesting: the three-hour large-order net inflow originally had the market turning completely bearish with 12 candles all green, but in the last 15 minutes the large orders have directly flipped to a net outflow of over 200 coins. In spot trading, active buying is also outweighed by sell-side pressure; the buy-side isn’t even half of the sell-side. When price is at high levels, some people start selling inventory to raise cash.
On-chain is even more worth watching. Lending leverage spiked by about 80% within half a day, and the debt growth rate is more than double the usual average. A good portion of this rally has been built by borrowed funds. Within a few hours, the percentage of long positions in whale accounts dropped by nearly 6%, and profit-taking is quietly withdrawing.
Fundamentals aren’t bad, either. In one week, V4 added more than 300 million in deposits. According to the founder, total deposits have also reached $30 billion. The news flow is basically all positive. But most of the positives are already priced into the move. RSI and MFI are both overbought, volume has expanded to three to five times, and sentiment is at its hottest.
The trend is fine—the issue is the location. Chasing longs here offers poor risk/reward. If there isn’t follow-through from the capital rotation, a pullback could hurt badly.
My choice: don’t chase. Wait for a retracement and see whether lower prices can hold the bid. If it stabilizes, then we talk. If it can’t hold, we keep waiting.
#aave $AAVE
At this level, I won’t chase.
After it’s run up this far, the recent capital flows are a bit interesting: the three-hour large-order net inflow originally had the market turning completely bearish with 12 candles all green, but in the last 15 minutes the large orders have directly flipped to a net outflow of over 200 coins. In spot trading, active buying is also outweighed by sell-side pressure; the buy-side isn’t even half of the sell-side. When price is at high levels, some people start selling inventory to raise cash.
On-chain is even more worth watching. Lending leverage spiked by about 80% within half a day, and the debt growth rate is more than double the usual average. A good portion of this rally has been built by borrowed funds. Within a few hours, the percentage of long positions in whale accounts dropped by nearly 6%, and profit-taking is quietly withdrawing.
Fundamentals aren’t bad, either. In one week, V4 added more than 300 million in deposits. According to the founder, total deposits have also reached $30 billion. The news flow is basically all positive. But most of the positives are already priced into the move. RSI and MFI are both overbought, volume has expanded to three to five times, and sentiment is at its hottest.
The trend is fine—the issue is the location. Chasing longs here offers poor risk/reward. If there isn’t follow-through from the capital rotation, a pullback could hurt badly.
My choice: don’t chase. Wait for a retracement and see whether lower prices can hold the bid. If it stabilizes, then we talk. If it can’t hold, we keep waiting.
#aave $AAVE
