诸葛投研
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诸葛投研
Square Verified+2017年底进币圈的老韭菜，原股票持证投顾。只分享自己交易，不代表投资建议，跟着操作盈亏自负。视频号“诸葛web3投研”，已经20w粉，欢迎来找我。
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Dear bosses, the Binance Web3 wallet has also started charging transaction fees. If you haven't linked an invitation code yet, you can use my invitation code "ZG666" to do so. Existing accounts can also fill it out.
Currently, you can reduce 30% of the transaction fees, and I can earn a 10% commission. I will permanently keep only 10%, and the more people use it, the higher the rebates I can give everyone in the future. If you feel that my content has been helpful to you, linking the invitation code is the biggest support for me.
How to link: In the Binance App wallet homepage, click "Invite" → click "Enter invitation code" → enter "ZG666" and confirm, and you're all set.
Currently, you can reduce 30% of the transaction fees, and I can earn a 10% commission. I will permanently keep only 10%, and the more people use it, the higher the rebates I can give everyone in the future. If you feel that my content has been helpful to you, linking the invitation code is the biggest support for me.
How to link: In the Binance App wallet homepage, click "Invite" → click "Enter invitation code" → enter "ZG666" and confirm, and you're all set.
PINNED
Some fans asked me: if I don’t buy this, and I don’t touch that, is there actually any coin trading going on?
My answer is boring—so boring that this post probably won’t get much traffic: yes, I am trading crypto, but basically I’ve only bought $BTC , $BNB , and $SOL . The rest are just “lottery” positions, just messing around. (That’s also why my analysis tries to stay as objective as possible—I don’t need to shout calls to get people to bag-hold for me.)
1. The one I’m down on the most right now is BNB. Since I needed to participate in Alpha’s TGE, I habitually kept holding BNB, which affected my investment judgment—I didn’t manage to trim at the top. So strictly speaking, I don’t even know whether playing Alpha made me lose or profit.
2. BTC and SOL were built up in batches during this round of decline. I think BTC may still drop, but I started averaging in when BTC was already above 70,000. In my view, if a token is destined to go to the moon, then boarding on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau versus boarding in the Tarim Basin—there isn’t much difference. The key is to get on the train.
3. The point is: there are very, very few tokens that can go to the moon. But I believe BTC should be the least controversial one. So my solution is simple: go with assets led by BTC. Decentralized-wise, I look at BTC; centralized-wise, I look at BNB.
4. Of course, my approach is too ordinary. Most people have heard of it. And many people don’t agree with my method—after all, most people come to this space aiming for 100x coins, aiming to turn their lives around in half a year.
5. I just accepted it long ago—I’m not the kind of person who can change my life in half a year. For example, the “dog-chasing and profit contest” that Binance Wallet ends today: as long as you don’t lose money, you can get on the profit leaderboard! What difficulty level do you think “dog chasing” or playing copycats is?
My answer is boring—so boring that this post probably won’t get much traffic: yes, I am trading crypto, but basically I’ve only bought $BTC , $BNB , and $SOL . The rest are just “lottery” positions, just messing around. (That’s also why my analysis tries to stay as objective as possible—I don’t need to shout calls to get people to bag-hold for me.)
1. The one I’m down on the most right now is BNB. Since I needed to participate in Alpha’s TGE, I habitually kept holding BNB, which affected my investment judgment—I didn’t manage to trim at the top. So strictly speaking, I don’t even know whether playing Alpha made me lose or profit.
2. BTC and SOL were built up in batches during this round of decline. I think BTC may still drop, but I started averaging in when BTC was already above 70,000. In my view, if a token is destined to go to the moon, then boarding on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau versus boarding in the Tarim Basin—there isn’t much difference. The key is to get on the train.
3. The point is: there are very, very few tokens that can go to the moon. But I believe BTC should be the least controversial one. So my solution is simple: go with assets led by BTC. Decentralized-wise, I look at BTC; centralized-wise, I look at BNB.
4. Of course, my approach is too ordinary. Most people have heard of it. And many people don’t agree with my method—after all, most people come to this space aiming for 100x coins, aiming to turn their lives around in half a year.
5. I just accepted it long ago—I’m not the kind of person who can change my life in half a year. For example, the “dog-chasing and profit contest” that Binance Wallet ends today: as long as you don’t lose money, you can get on the profit leaderboard! What difficulty level do you think “dog chasing” or playing copycats is?
诸葛投研
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The much-anticipated Grvt is indeed here, but it may not be as big as everyone imagined—at least not in terms of size:
1. The final threshold is 245 points, with only 30,000 allocations total, meaning 100 Grvt per person. At the pre-market price of 0.35u, each single allocation is 35u. 123 is just there to comfort everyone—it shows a pre-market value of 200u, but it actually uses a somewhat imprecise data scope.
2. This airdrop isn’t as large as people expected, because Alpha’s allocation share is only 0.3%, down from the expected 1%, which is a 70% direct reduction. Also, allocations must be spread as widely as possible; otherwise everyone would be furious at AnAn—so they could only make each individual “slice” smaller.
3. But honestly, Alpha’s resources really have been reduced. Everyone look at Binance’s official posts—lately they’ve been talking about bStocks. The direct impact is that Alpha only gets 0.3% of the allocation, far less than the 1% over on the other side.
4. So all we can say is: at least it wasn’t a TGE. Life is about digesting pain so you can have the strength to keep moving forward.
1. The final threshold is 245 points, with only 30,000 allocations total, meaning 100 Grvt per person. At the pre-market price of 0.35u, each single allocation is 35u. 123 is just there to comfort everyone—it shows a pre-market value of 200u, but it actually uses a somewhat imprecise data scope.
2. This airdrop isn’t as large as people expected, because Alpha’s allocation share is only 0.3%, down from the expected 1%, which is a 70% direct reduction. Also, allocations must be spread as widely as possible; otherwise everyone would be furious at AnAn—so they could only make each individual “slice” smaller.
3. But honestly, Alpha’s resources really have been reduced. Everyone look at Binance’s official posts—lately they’ve been talking about bStocks. The direct impact is that Alpha only gets 0.3% of the allocation, far less than the 1% over on the other side.
4. So all we can say is: at least it wasn’t a TGE. Life is about digesting pain so you can have the strength to keep moving forward.
$牛来 is truly insane—this can even get onto a contract. How many brothers are hitting the mark?
For brothers who want to play meme coins and alpha coins, be sure to bind your wallet invite code first—this saves 30% on trading fees!
How to bind: On the Binance app Wallet homepage, tap “Invite” → tap “Enter invite code” → enter “ZG666” and confirm. That’s it.
For brothers who want to play meme coins and alpha coins, be sure to bind your wallet invite code first—this saves 30% on trading fees!
How to bind: On the Binance app Wallet homepage, tap “Invite” → tap “Enter invite code” → enter “ZG666” and confirm. That’s it.
Partly True
Next week’s token unlock preview: concentrated on the 1st and 2nd—one of the tokens is a big bomb.
1. $GRASS Unlocks 6.07 million (2.5% of circulating supply). Because the share is low, the damage is limited.
2. $EIGEN Unlocks 7.22 million (4.0%), KITE Unlocks 7.56 million (2.5%), FF Unlocks 707M (2.4%).
All three are unlocked on the 1st. I mentioned this the other day as well. Friends who hold them, please be careful and avoid it in time.
3. The biggest one is $SOMI , unlocking 15.62 million (84% of circulating supply). This is a major risk.
Coincidentally, the one-year cliff lockup period has just ended, so 84% of it will enter circulation. With this massive sell-off, brothers who hold it should run now; otherwise, the closer it gets, the harsher the dump will be.
1. $GRASS Unlocks 6.07 million (2.5% of circulating supply). Because the share is low, the damage is limited.
2. $EIGEN Unlocks 7.22 million (4.0%), KITE Unlocks 7.56 million (2.5%), FF Unlocks 707M (2.4%).
All three are unlocked on the 1st. I mentioned this the other day as well. Friends who hold them, please be careful and avoid it in time.
3. The biggest one is $SOMI , unlocking 15.62 million (84% of circulating supply). This is a major risk.
Coincidentally, the one-year cliff lockup period has just ended, so 84% of it will enter circulation. With this massive sell-off, brothers who hold it should run now; otherwise, the closer it gets, the harsher the dump will be.
Verified
Brothers, what did I just say? 😂 As soon as the words left my mouth, $TRUMP took away the USDC that was cashed out from the pool.
1. The scheme is exactly the same as what I broke down yesterday: it’s just about cashing out by adding to the liquidity pool.
From the order book, the team really didn’t dump the market, but this one-sided pool method is only a bit more covert—it doesn’t change the essence.
2. And TRUMP is a repeat offender by nature, so every bounce is just a selling window.
The only logic left for this coin to rise is betting that Trump will go crazy again and start screaming orders, but on-chain evidence shows that every time he posts signals/orders, it’s to let the team cash out at high levels.
3. Next month on the 18th, another 28.7 million TRUMP tokens will be unlocked—that’s 77 million worth of sell pressure. Since the pool is this thin right now, I guess the drop then will be even bigger.
1. The scheme is exactly the same as what I broke down yesterday: it’s just about cashing out by adding to the liquidity pool.
From the order book, the team really didn’t dump the market, but this one-sided pool method is only a bit more covert—it doesn’t change the essence.
2. And TRUMP is a repeat offender by nature, so every bounce is just a selling window.
The only logic left for this coin to rise is betting that Trump will go crazy again and start screaming orders, but on-chain evidence shows that every time he posts signals/orders, it’s to let the team cash out at high levels.
3. Next month on the 18th, another 28.7 million TRUMP tokens will be unlocked—that’s 77 million worth of sell pressure. Since the pool is this thin right now, I guess the drop then will be even bigger.
诸葛投研
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So there really are brothers who are broadcasting $TRUMP ? Pump the price to distribute, the coin price drifting down, retail investors taking the bags… This is Trump’s old playbook.
Let me lay out this time’s TRUMP distribution scheme for everyone:
1. This distribution method is even more covert. The team didn’t dump with market orders; instead, they put $TRUMP into a Solana liquidity pool. When others buy, it automatically swaps into USDC.
It doesn’t look violent, but the effect is the same: the holdings are converted into stablecoins, and selling pressure is pushed into the market.
2. Of course, the exchange also won’t give up cashing out. They’ve already transferred 2.62 million tokens to the neighboring place—what do you think he’s trying to do?
3. Retail losses are shocking. Among the 1.4 million TRUMP-buying wallets, 1.2 million are losing money, with a cumulative unrealized loss of 3.81 billion.
The top 1% of profit-making wallets take 80% of the profits, and most of them are basically team-linked addresses.
As the saying goes: don’t trust TRUMP. Any “pump” is an opportunity for the team to distribute. This kind of coin is for cursing, not buying.
Let me lay out this time’s TRUMP distribution scheme for everyone:
1. This distribution method is even more covert. The team didn’t dump with market orders; instead, they put $TRUMP into a Solana liquidity pool. When others buy, it automatically swaps into USDC.
It doesn’t look violent, but the effect is the same: the holdings are converted into stablecoins, and selling pressure is pushed into the market.
2. Of course, the exchange also won’t give up cashing out. They’ve already transferred 2.62 million tokens to the neighboring place—what do you think he’s trying to do?
3. Retail losses are shocking. Among the 1.4 million TRUMP-buying wallets, 1.2 million are losing money, with a cumulative unrealized loss of 3.81 billion.
The top 1% of profit-making wallets take 80% of the profits, and most of them are basically team-linked addresses.
As the saying goes: don’t trust TRUMP. Any “pump” is an opportunity for the team to distribute. This kind of coin is for cursing, not buying.
Verified
Still $ZEC , awesome. When the overall market is generally down, it pulls up against the trend; when the overall market is generally up, it jumps even more. Unfortunately, I didn’t get in early.
1. Grayscale issues the first U.S. privacy coin spot ETF. It was only on the 25th that a revised registration statement was filed. Privacy coins have long been avoided by exchanges, but now institutions are actively engaging, which is why it hit a new 8-year high.
2. Ironwood upgrades and blocks/obscures increased ZEC usage. On the technical front, the technology is iterating—there is real potential for privacy narratives to have practical applications.
3. Institutions are adopting a return-to-narrative approach. CMC classifies ZEC as an “institutional adoption + technical upgrade” theme, which is why there is funding treating it as an independent narrative buy.
1. Grayscale issues the first U.S. privacy coin spot ETF. It was only on the 25th that a revised registration statement was filed. Privacy coins have long been avoided by exchanges, but now institutions are actively engaging, which is why it hit a new 8-year high.
2. Ironwood upgrades and blocks/obscures increased ZEC usage. On the technical front, the technology is iterating—there is real potential for privacy narratives to have practical applications.
3. Institutions are adopting a return-to-narrative approach. CMC classifies ZEC as an “institutional adoption + technical upgrade” theme, which is why there is funding treating it as an independent narrative buy.
$HYPE really is a good project, but does nobody really think the price has risen too high?
Yesterday, there was nearly 1.2 billion worth of selling pressure unlocking, yet it still went up—who exactly is buying?
The key point is that the total circulating supply of $HYPE is only 18 billion, and this time another 6.7% of selling pressure needs to be added. And it’s all shares belonging to teams who are in profit by several times or even dozens of times, plus community airdrops and foundation allocations—aren’t these basically textbook selling pressure?
This price action is hard to understand. The buyback from fees plus inflation seems to offset each other at around the 30 range, and yet it keeps climbing all the way to 80…
Yesterday, there was nearly 1.2 billion worth of selling pressure unlocking, yet it still went up—who exactly is buying?
The key point is that the total circulating supply of $HYPE is only 18 billion, and this time another 6.7% of selling pressure needs to be added. And it’s all shares belonging to teams who are in profit by several times or even dozens of times, plus community airdrops and foundation allocations—aren’t these basically textbook selling pressure?
This price action is hard to understand. The buyback from fees plus inflation seems to offset each other at around the 30 range, and yet it keeps climbing all the way to 80…
Brothers of $HYPE , pay attention: today we’re set to unlock 14.18 million tokens, which is nearly 1.2 billion worth of sell pressure.
The entire HYPE circulating market cap is only 18 billion—meaning this is like suddenly adding 6.7% in potential sell pressure. HYPE brothers, keep a close watch on the order book today.
1. The unlock structure isn’t very friendly. 46.6% goes to insiders, 46.3% to the community, and 7% to the foundation. If HYPE’s price moves from 20 to 80, early holders will very likely take profits and sell out.
2. Also, the big whales are already distributing. A few days ago, on-chain data showed a whale sold about 1.95 million tokens and cashed out 110 million—clearly a high-level profit-taking.
3. Mainly because the fundamentals are also a bit weak. Protocol revenue has been falling for four consecutive quarters, dropping from 357 million in last year’s Q3 to 202 million in today’s Q2. HIP-3 shares some of the fees with builders, and the funds used for buyback and burn are decreasing.
Brothers, during these days, focus on risk avoidance. After the unlock, wait 3–5 days and then see how the sell pressure gets digested. #美联储9月加息概率升至57%
The entire HYPE circulating market cap is only 18 billion—meaning this is like suddenly adding 6.7% in potential sell pressure. HYPE brothers, keep a close watch on the order book today.
1. The unlock structure isn’t very friendly. 46.6% goes to insiders, 46.3% to the community, and 7% to the foundation. If HYPE’s price moves from 20 to 80, early holders will very likely take profits and sell out.
2. Also, the big whales are already distributing. A few days ago, on-chain data showed a whale sold about 1.95 million tokens and cashed out 110 million—clearly a high-level profit-taking.
3. Mainly because the fundamentals are also a bit weak. Protocol revenue has been falling for four consecutive quarters, dropping from 357 million in last year’s Q3 to 202 million in today’s Q2. HIP-3 shares some of the fees with builders, and the funds used for buyback and burn are decreasing.
Brothers, during these days, focus on risk avoidance. After the unlock, wait 3–5 days and then see how the sell pressure gets digested. #美联储9月加息概率升至57%
Verified
This vote basically rewrites the fate of $SOL !
Actually, $SOL is quite split right now:
On one side, there were 4.2 billion on-chain transactions in July. Transaction volume and activity keep setting new highs, crushing old-school chains like Ethereum. It’s like the busiest high-speed highway in the crypto world.
But on the other side, inflation has stayed stubbornly high, and the amount being burned is pitifully low—so holders can’t really make money. The price is still 67% away from its all-time high of 293u.
Then last night brought some good news: the vote for Solana’s double-deflation passed. That means that over the next six years, the SOL supply will decrease by nearly 19 million coins.
Unfortunately, the proposal to directly increase the burn amount by 14x didn’t pass. Some institutions and validators strongly opposed it, and the approval rate was only 54%, not reaching the 67% threshold. Otherwise, Solana would really be set to enter its own行情.
Keep holding strong 😎
Actually, $SOL is quite split right now:
On one side, there were 4.2 billion on-chain transactions in July. Transaction volume and activity keep setting new highs, crushing old-school chains like Ethereum. It’s like the busiest high-speed highway in the crypto world.
But on the other side, inflation has stayed stubbornly high, and the amount being burned is pitifully low—so holders can’t really make money. The price is still 67% away from its all-time high of 293u.
Then last night brought some good news: the vote for Solana’s double-deflation passed. That means that over the next six years, the SOL supply will decrease by nearly 19 million coins.
Unfortunately, the proposal to directly increase the burn amount by 14x didn’t pass. Some institutions and validators strongly opposed it, and the approval rate was only 54%, not reaching the 67% threshold. Otherwise, Solana would really be set to enter its own行情.
Keep holding strong 😎
So there really are brothers who are broadcasting $TRUMP ? Pump the price to distribute, the coin price drifting down, retail investors taking the bags… This is Trump’s old playbook.
Let me lay out this time’s TRUMP distribution scheme for everyone:
1. This distribution method is even more covert. The team didn’t dump with market orders; instead, they put $TRUMP into a Solana liquidity pool. When others buy, it automatically swaps into USDC.
It doesn’t look violent, but the effect is the same: the holdings are converted into stablecoins, and selling pressure is pushed into the market.
2. Of course, the exchange also won’t give up cashing out. They’ve already transferred 2.62 million tokens to the neighboring place—what do you think he’s trying to do?
3. Retail losses are shocking. Among the 1.4 million TRUMP-buying wallets, 1.2 million are losing money, with a cumulative unrealized loss of 3.81 billion.
The top 1% of profit-making wallets take 80% of the profits, and most of them are basically team-linked addresses.
As the saying goes: don’t trust TRUMP. Any “pump” is an opportunity for the team to distribute. This kind of coin is for cursing, not buying.
Let me lay out this time’s TRUMP distribution scheme for everyone:
1. This distribution method is even more covert. The team didn’t dump with market orders; instead, they put $TRUMP into a Solana liquidity pool. When others buy, it automatically swaps into USDC.
It doesn’t look violent, but the effect is the same: the holdings are converted into stablecoins, and selling pressure is pushed into the market.
2. Of course, the exchange also won’t give up cashing out. They’ve already transferred 2.62 million tokens to the neighboring place—what do you think he’s trying to do?
3. Retail losses are shocking. Among the 1.4 million TRUMP-buying wallets, 1.2 million are losing money, with a cumulative unrealized loss of 3.81 billion.
The top 1% of profit-making wallets take 80% of the profits, and most of them are basically team-linked addresses.
As the saying goes: don’t trust TRUMP. Any “pump” is an opportunity for the team to distribute. This kind of coin is for cursing, not buying.
Verified
Last night, the Fed’s remarks caused $BTC to plunge in response. Will this be the start of a downswing? I don’t think so:
1. Last night, when the Fed Chair spoke, the whole message was basically one thing: “I want to raise rates in September.” The exact wording was: “Inflation is too high, well above the 2% target; the primary focus should be on prices; the lending market doesn’t constrain monetary policy…”
2. So the probability of a September rate hike jumped from 30% to 60%, and BTC slid to 77,000. But I think this is unlikely to be the start of a major BTC selloff.
3. Because the 200-day moving average support at 75,000 is strong and not easy to break; because the institutional buy-side demand from ETFs did not see a large net outflow yesterday, so it can’t be considered a reversal; and because rate-hike expectations themselves are one of the tools to curb inflation—there’s no guarantee that they must be implemented immediately in September.
4. Yesterday, I already said that only when three signals worsen can we call it the start of a downtrend: a substantial net outflow from ETFs; a large discount in Coinbase; and the 7-day moving average of net profit/loss shifting from profit to loss.
So everyone, don’t get too excited. Even though I also think prices will fall—and I started taking profit the day before yesterday—this waterfall likely won’t happen that fast. Continue to wait patiently. #比特币24小时跌3.4%至7.74万美元
1. Last night, when the Fed Chair spoke, the whole message was basically one thing: “I want to raise rates in September.” The exact wording was: “Inflation is too high, well above the 2% target; the primary focus should be on prices; the lending market doesn’t constrain monetary policy…”
2. So the probability of a September rate hike jumped from 30% to 60%, and BTC slid to 77,000. But I think this is unlikely to be the start of a major BTC selloff.
3. Because the 200-day moving average support at 75,000 is strong and not easy to break; because the institutional buy-side demand from ETFs did not see a large net outflow yesterday, so it can’t be considered a reversal; and because rate-hike expectations themselves are one of the tools to curb inflation—there’s no guarantee that they must be implemented immediately in September.
4. Yesterday, I already said that only when three signals worsen can we call it the start of a downtrend: a substantial net outflow from ETFs; a large discount in Coinbase; and the 7-day moving average of net profit/loss shifting from profit to loss.
So everyone, don’t get too excited. Even though I also think prices will fall—and I started taking profit the day before yesterday—this waterfall likely won’t happen that fast. Continue to wait patiently. #比特币24小时跌3.4%至7.74万美元
Yesterday $My girlfriend Jing Tian is so popular—within a single night it went up as much as 1600x. How many brothers got in?
If you didn’t, it’s okay—there will be more opportunities later. But there’s one preparation step everyone must do in advance: bind your wallet invite code. That way, when you buy memes, you can save 30% on trading fees!😁😁😁
How to bind: On the Binance app, go to the Wallet homepage, tap “Invite” → tap “Enter invite code” → enter “ZG666” and confirm. That’s it.
If you didn’t, it’s okay—there will be more opportunities later. But there’s one preparation step everyone must do in advance: bind your wallet invite code. That way, when you buy memes, you can save 30% on trading fees!😁😁😁
How to bind: On the Binance app, go to the Wallet homepage, tap “Invite” → tap “Enter invite code” → enter “ZG666” and confirm. That’s it.
Brothers, this kind of small event that nobody pays attention to is actually quite comfortable—grabbing some braised pork rice is pretty nice too. Please pay a bit more attention.
I’m also participating in this kind of borrowing event for the first time. The event lasts 20 days. I joined on Day 9. There are still 3 days left until it ends. My average daily borrowed amount is 1730u, and I’m ranked 1094th.
I should be able to secure a spot within the top 1220. The borrowing interest is under 3u. Based on the current price of $ACE , the 150-coin reward gives 30u. This braised pork rice is really comfortable.
If you’re interested in these kinds of small events, you can join the chat room.
For brothers who haven’t bound a Binance wallet invite code yet, please do it as soon as possible. For everyday on-chain trading like US stocks on the transaction chain, Doge-meme, buying and selling Alpha, and other on-chain tokens, you can save 30% on the trading fee.
How to bind: On the Binance App, go to the Wallet homepage, tap "Invite" → tap "Enter invite code" → enter "ZG666" and confirm. That’s it.
I’m also participating in this kind of borrowing event for the first time. The event lasts 20 days. I joined on Day 9. There are still 3 days left until it ends. My average daily borrowed amount is 1730u, and I’m ranked 1094th.
I should be able to secure a spot within the top 1220. The borrowing interest is under 3u. Based on the current price of $ACE , the 150-coin reward gives 30u. This braised pork rice is really comfortable.
If you’re interested in these kinds of small events, you can join the chat room.
For brothers who haven’t bound a Binance wallet invite code yet, please do it as soon as possible. For everyday on-chain trading like US stocks on the transaction chain, Doge-meme, buying and selling Alpha, and other on-chain tokens, you can save 30% on the trading fee.
How to bind: On the Binance App, go to the Wallet homepage, tap "Invite" → tap "Enter invite code" → enter "ZG666" and confirm. That’s it.
$TRUMP Are there still people who believe in Chuanzi? Better believe me—I’m Qin Shi Huang!
Since the year before last, the encrypted projects related to Chuanzi and his family have caused investors to lose at least $4.7 billion! Among them, TRUMP cut $3.2 billion, and WLFI even got people cut harder than Sun!
They hype it up with “good news,” then keep slowly bleeding you out during the decline—that isn’t the old playbook of $TRUMP ? They’ve used it three times already. So why are there still people playing this time?
Since the year before last, the encrypted projects related to Chuanzi and his family have caused investors to lose at least $4.7 billion! Among them, TRUMP cut $3.2 billion, and WLFI even got people cut harder than Sun!
They hype it up with “good news,” then keep slowly bleeding you out during the decline—that isn’t the old playbook of $TRUMP ? They’ve used it three times already. So why are there still people playing this time?
Verified
$NVDAB NVIDIA releases earnings report, exceeding market expectations, with the stock surging 4%:
1. Revenue is 96.2 billion, exceeding the expected 92.1 billion; adjusted EPS is 2.22, also above the expected 2.09; even the gross margin rose from the previous 72.5% back up to 75%.
2. In the earnings report, the expected Q3 revenue is 108 billion, and expectations are still rising—indicating they believe market demand hasn’t peaked yet and there’s still room for growth.
3. NVIDIA’s valuation doesn’t look too inflated either. If you calculate the P/E, it’s only about 23x, and it’s likely this AI-driven momentum can continue lifting the stock for a while more.
4. As soon as the report came out, capital voted with its feet—short-term sentiment is positive. There’s no “sell on the news” happening, which suggests the market still has confidence in the future.
Of course, there are also some potential risks. Everyone shouldn’t get too carried away. This risk is also mentioned in their earnings report: China’s regulatory risk is a sword hanging overhead, which could cut off a large chunk of its $NVDA.US valuation at any time. #英伟达营收超预期股价涨4%
1. Revenue is 96.2 billion, exceeding the expected 92.1 billion; adjusted EPS is 2.22, also above the expected 2.09; even the gross margin rose from the previous 72.5% back up to 75%.
2. In the earnings report, the expected Q3 revenue is 108 billion, and expectations are still rising—indicating they believe market demand hasn’t peaked yet and there’s still room for growth.
3. NVIDIA’s valuation doesn’t look too inflated either. If you calculate the P/E, it’s only about 23x, and it’s likely this AI-driven momentum can continue lifting the stock for a while more.
4. As soon as the report came out, capital voted with its feet—short-term sentiment is positive. There’s no “sell on the news” happening, which suggests the market still has confidence in the future.
Of course, there are also some potential risks. Everyone shouldn’t get too carried away. This risk is also mentioned in their earnings report: China’s regulatory risk is a sword hanging overhead, which could cut off a large chunk of its $NVDA.US valuation at any time. #英伟达营收超预期股价涨4%
NVDAB-0.11%
NVDAUS-4.48%
I said it twice: $BTC can’t be opened for shorts now. In the end, you got trapped. Ask me what it’s good for 😂 I can only suggest cutting your losses!
1. If you really get trapped, don’t panic, because you’re not alone: right now the short positions in the market are even heavier than the long side!
2. In a short-squeeze market, shorting $BTC has no future—especially this kind of speculative short.
Don’t think that because BTC has risen from 66,000 to 79,000 it’s automatically a high point and shorting is a sure win. BTC was still 120,000 last year.
3. Of course, if your stop-loss price is above 90,000, your odds are still pretty high. Because I also think that BTC will surge toward 86,000 and then drop again.
4. Net inflows into the ETF have already fallen off a cliff, which means the main engine driving the rally (institutional spot demand) has stalled. Without additional incremental demand, it’s hard to push through.
My plan is still to focus on spot. When it runs up, I’ll take profit and trade the swings. The short-squeeze trend is still ongoing—so you can’t open shorts. There’s always a risk of being liquidated by surprise “piercing” moves.
1. If you really get trapped, don’t panic, because you’re not alone: right now the short positions in the market are even heavier than the long side!
2. In a short-squeeze market, shorting $BTC has no future—especially this kind of speculative short.
Don’t think that because BTC has risen from 66,000 to 79,000 it’s automatically a high point and shorting is a sure win. BTC was still 120,000 last year.
3. Of course, if your stop-loss price is above 90,000, your odds are still pretty high. Because I also think that BTC will surge toward 86,000 and then drop again.
4. Net inflows into the ETF have already fallen off a cliff, which means the main engine driving the rally (institutional spot demand) has stalled. Without additional incremental demand, it’s hard to push through.
My plan is still to focus on spot. When it runs up, I’ll take profit and trade the swings. The short-squeeze trend is still ongoing—so you can’t open shorts. There’s always a risk of being liquidated by surprise “piercing” moves.
Binance Wallet is really good at bringing in money—today I received another 4u reward. This is the reward from the last Venus financial management plan. I previously shared a guide on how everyone can participate—everyone, go claim your money.
For brothers who haven’t bound a wallet invite code yet, bind it as soon as possible. For on-chain token transactions like US stocks on the chain, Doge meme, buying and selling Alpha, etc., you can save 30% on trading fees.
How to bind: On the Binance app, go to the Wallet homepage, tap “Invite” → tap “Enter invite code” → enter “ZG666” and confirm. That’s it.
For brothers who haven’t bound a wallet invite code yet, bind it as soon as possible. For on-chain token transactions like US stocks on the chain, Doge meme, buying and selling Alpha, etc., you can save 30% on trading fees.
How to bind: On the Binance app, go to the Wallet homepage, tap “Invite” → tap “Enter invite code” → enter “ZG666” and confirm. That’s it.
Today’s Airdrop $DEBIT results are all out too. If I were you, I’d go for the bigger picture:
1. Time: 18:00. Threshold: 240 points. 20,000份. Now the pool price is 22.5u per person, but the pool price is usually a bit low. I estimate the opening price will tick up a little. If there are snipers, then for certain single accounts there’s a chance to reach 40u.
2. First of all, let me say this: I don’t have enough points, so the brothers who do have enough points will make money.
The distribution of the pool’s chips is very concentrated. If I were making a bet, I’d go for one round for two reasons:
（1）This is the shell of an old project. It’s been repackaged with a new story, so I suspect someone bought the shell.
If someone is trying to dump it in pursuit of getting to Alpha, with the current lousy market conditions, they may not even be able to break even.
（2）The main thing is this is an extremely high-control project. There’s basically no chips outside the pool at all. The level of control equals “three no-issues” projects—so the pull-up foundation is there.
In any case, at the current price, it’s just a 22.5u little trash coin. Better to go for the bigger picture and keep a souvenir/hope for it.
1. Time: 18:00. Threshold: 240 points. 20,000份. Now the pool price is 22.5u per person, but the pool price is usually a bit low. I estimate the opening price will tick up a little. If there are snipers, then for certain single accounts there’s a chance to reach 40u.
2. First of all, let me say this: I don’t have enough points, so the brothers who do have enough points will make money.
The distribution of the pool’s chips is very concentrated. If I were making a bet, I’d go for one round for two reasons:
（1）This is the shell of an old project. It’s been repackaged with a new story, so I suspect someone bought the shell.
If someone is trying to dump it in pursuit of getting to Alpha, with the current lousy market conditions, they may not even be able to break even.
（2）The main thing is this is an extremely high-control project. There’s basically no chips outside the pool at all. The level of control equals “three no-issues” projects—so the pull-up foundation is there.
In any case, at the current price, it’s just a 22.5u little trash coin. Better to go for the bigger picture and keep a souvenir/hope for it.
I thought the returns from $TMX would be really bad, so I even specifically suggested everyone not to do the booster. But I never expected this: it’s that bad?!
And the project rules were quietly changed. At first they said that people who completed task one would split 1.7 million $TMX evenly—I figured there were about 60,000 people who actually finished task one.
But they still used 80,000 participants and only sent the lowest guaranteed amount: 21.25 $TMX per person.
In the end, when I sold for 3.7u, I couldn’t even cover the transaction fee for two Alpha points 😂
And the project rules were quietly changed. At first they said that people who completed task one would split 1.7 million $TMX evenly—I figured there were about 60,000 people who actually finished task one.
But they still used 80,000 participants and only sent the lowest guaranteed amount: 21.25 $TMX per person.
In the end, when I sold for 3.7u, I couldn’t even cover the transaction fee for two Alpha points 😂
诸葛投研
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Are there any friends who haven’t done TermMax yet? I just realized this booster mission #TermMax is a bit of a loss—my suggestion is not to do it.
1. First of all, I think TermMax’s market cap of 182 million already seems quite high. After it launches, it likely won’t pump. So using the pre-market price to judge the reward value is relatively accurate. (Friends who agree with this point can go straight to point 2.)
Let’s look at TermMax’s fundamentals. TermMax is about fixed-rate lending and a revolving strategy protocol. In other words, you deposit collateral and then borrow from the treasury, and the interest rates are fixed—so you don’t have to worry that one day the treasury’s assets will be insufficient and cause high volatility.
A couple of days ago, the official account @TermMax released a press release saying total TVL reached $90 million. But everyone knows how much TVL the lending protocol leader Aave has? It holds more than 60% of the DeFi lending market, with $14.6 billion in TVL—162 times TermMax. Yet its market cap is only 1.35 billion, which is just 7.4 times TermMax.
Of course, fixed-rate lending is hard to run, because poor liquidity is a hard drawback. Once the rate is locked, the funds get stuck—if the pool isn’t active, it can’t rotate.
Right now, it seems TermMax has solved this drawback in the most perfect way: it uses an order-book rate-matching mechanism similar to Uniswap V3 Range Orders, which attracts lots of idle funds into the liquidity pool.
But even if we consider that the fixed-rate lending market previously developed poorly and there’s bigger room for imagination, it still seems difficult to justify such a valuation premium for a specific blue-chip like TermMax. So I think the upside is limited.
2. With this consensus, let’s break down the TMX rewards: the total supply of TMX is 1 billion tokens, and the pre-market price is 0.182u per token. This time they will distribute 1.7 million TMX, worth 309,400u.
3. The event still has 6 days left. Now there are already 40,000 people registered—meaning the average reward per person is 3.8 to 7.7u. And everyone’s Alpha points cost is 2u per point. Plus you also have to worry about whether spending the points won’t meet the threshold. No matter how you calculate it, it’s a loss.
4. The key point: TMX is expected to launch next Tuesday at 6:00, but the official account says there may be a lock-up period. If at launch the 182 million market cap only unlocks half for me, and then it unlocks the other half only after the market cap drops to 50 million, then it’s a total loss—like the kind that makes you lose your mind from how bad it is.
1. First of all, I think TermMax’s market cap of 182 million already seems quite high. After it launches, it likely won’t pump. So using the pre-market price to judge the reward value is relatively accurate. (Friends who agree with this point can go straight to point 2.)
Let’s look at TermMax’s fundamentals. TermMax is about fixed-rate lending and a revolving strategy protocol. In other words, you deposit collateral and then borrow from the treasury, and the interest rates are fixed—so you don’t have to worry that one day the treasury’s assets will be insufficient and cause high volatility.
A couple of days ago, the official account @TermMax released a press release saying total TVL reached $90 million. But everyone knows how much TVL the lending protocol leader Aave has? It holds more than 60% of the DeFi lending market, with $14.6 billion in TVL—162 times TermMax. Yet its market cap is only 1.35 billion, which is just 7.4 times TermMax.
Of course, fixed-rate lending is hard to run, because poor liquidity is a hard drawback. Once the rate is locked, the funds get stuck—if the pool isn’t active, it can’t rotate.
Right now, it seems TermMax has solved this drawback in the most perfect way: it uses an order-book rate-matching mechanism similar to Uniswap V3 Range Orders, which attracts lots of idle funds into the liquidity pool.
But even if we consider that the fixed-rate lending market previously developed poorly and there’s bigger room for imagination, it still seems difficult to justify such a valuation premium for a specific blue-chip like TermMax. So I think the upside is limited.
2. With this consensus, let’s break down the TMX rewards: the total supply of TMX is 1 billion tokens, and the pre-market price is 0.182u per token. This time they will distribute 1.7 million TMX, worth 309,400u.
3. The event still has 6 days left. Now there are already 40,000 people registered—meaning the average reward per person is 3.8 to 7.7u. And everyone’s Alpha points cost is 2u per point. Plus you also have to worry about whether spending the points won’t meet the threshold. No matter how you calculate it, it’s a loss.
4. The key point: TMX is expected to launch next Tuesday at 6:00, but the official account says there may be a lock-up period. If at launch the 182 million market cap only unlocks half for me, and then it unlocks the other half only after the market cap drops to 50 million, then it’s a total loss—like the kind that makes you lose your mind from how bad it is.
Verified
After today’s close, it’s time for $NVDAB to release its Q2 FY27 earnings report. This report could be the key to whether AI stocks can find their spring again.
Crypto has been up for several days now—so I wonder if this time, AI can finally regain some momentum. 😏
Market expectations are for revenue of 92.18 billion (YoY +97%). The stock price has also basically moved in line with expectations. So, $NVDA fell for seven straight days last week, down 7.5%, wiping out 151 billion. This week it rebounded and has climbed back by 2%, but today is still a concentrated sell-pressure zone.
NVIDIA’s Groq 3 LPX inference rack has entered mass production and shipments are underway. The key variable now is how management approaches the $1 trillion Blackwell + Rubin order.
Of course, it’s better not to bet on the earnings report—wait for it. Brothers trading AI stocks and AI tokens, I suggest focusing on defense. You might hold small positions and wait for opportunities in the right direction; don’t risk your principal betting on luck.
Crypto has been up for several days now—so I wonder if this time, AI can finally regain some momentum. 😏
Market expectations are for revenue of 92.18 billion (YoY +97%). The stock price has also basically moved in line with expectations. So, $NVDA fell for seven straight days last week, down 7.5%, wiping out 151 billion. This week it rebounded and has climbed back by 2%, but today is still a concentrated sell-pressure zone.
NVIDIA’s Groq 3 LPX inference rack has entered mass production and shipments are underway. The key variable now is how management approaches the $1 trillion Blackwell + Rubin order.
Of course, it’s better not to bet on the earnings report—wait for it. Brothers trading AI stocks and AI tokens, I suggest focusing on defense. You might hold small positions and wait for opportunities in the right direction; don’t risk your principal betting on luck.
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