Last night, the Fed’s remarks caused $BTC to plunge in response. Will this be the start of a downswing? I don’t think so:
1. Last night, when the Fed Chair spoke, the whole message was basically one thing: “I want to raise rates in September.” The exact wording was: “Inflation is too high, well above the 2% target; the primary focus should be on prices; the lending market doesn’t constrain monetary policy…”
2. So the probability of a September rate hike jumped from 30% to 60%, and BTC slid to 77,000. But I think this is unlikely to be the start of a major BTC selloff.
3. Because the 200-day moving average support at 75,000 is strong and not easy to break; because the institutional buy-side demand from ETFs did not see a large net outflow yesterday, so it can’t be considered a reversal; and because rate-hike expectations themselves are one of the tools to curb inflation—there’s no guarantee that they must be implemented immediately in September.
4. Yesterday, I already said that only when three signals worsen can we call it the start of a downtrend: a substantial net outflow from ETFs; a large discount in Coinbase; and the 7-day moving average of net profit/loss shifting from profit to loss.
So everyone, don’t get too excited. Even though I also think prices will fall—and I started taking profit the day before yesterday—this waterfall likely won’t happen that fast. Continue to wait patiently. #比特币24小时跌3.4%至7.74万美元
1. Last night, when the Fed Chair spoke, the whole message was basically one thing: “I want to raise rates in September.” The exact wording was: “Inflation is too high, well above the 2% target; the primary focus should be on prices; the lending market doesn’t constrain monetary policy…”
2. So the probability of a September rate hike jumped from 30% to 60%, and BTC slid to 77,000. But I think this is unlikely to be the start of a major BTC selloff.
3. Because the 200-day moving average support at 75,000 is strong and not easy to break; because the institutional buy-side demand from ETFs did not see a large net outflow yesterday, so it can’t be considered a reversal; and because rate-hike expectations themselves are one of the tools to curb inflation—there’s no guarantee that they must be implemented immediately in September.
4. Yesterday, I already said that only when three signals worsen can we call it the start of a downtrend: a substantial net outflow from ETFs; a large discount in Coinbase; and the 7-day moving average of net profit/loss shifting from profit to loss.
So everyone, don’t get too excited. Even though I also think prices will fall—and I started taking profit the day before yesterday—this waterfall likely won’t happen that fast. Continue to wait patiently. #比特币24小时跌3.4%至7.74万美元
