诸葛投研

Binance Wallet is really good at bringing in money—today I received another 4u reward. This is the reward from the last Venus financial management plan. I previously shared a guide on how everyone can participate—everyone, go claim your money.

For brothers who haven’t bound a wallet invite code yet, bind it as soon as possible. For on-chain token transactions like US stocks on the chain, Doge meme, buying and selling Alpha, etc., you can save 30% on trading fees.

How to bind: On the Binance app, go to the Wallet homepage, tap “Invite” → tap “Enter invite code” → enter “ZG666” and confirm. That’s it. ​​​

Some fans asked me: if I don’t buy this, and I don’t touch that, is there actually any coin trading going on?

My answer is boring—so boring that this post probably won’t get much traffic: yes, I am trading crypto, but basically I’ve only bought $BTC , $BNB , and $SOL . The rest are just “lottery” positions, just messing around. (That’s also why my analysis tries to stay as objective as possible—I don’t need to shout calls to get people to bag-hold for me.)

1. The one I’m down on the most right now is BNB. Since I needed to participate in Alpha’s TGE, I habitually kept holding BNB, which affected my investment judgment—I didn’t manage to trim at the top. So strictly speaking, I don’t even know whether playing Alpha made me lose or profit.

2. BTC and SOL were built up in batches during this round of decline. I think BTC may still drop, but I started averaging in when BTC was already above 70,000. In my view, if a token is destined to go to the moon, then boarding on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau versus boarding in the Tarim Basin—there isn’t much difference. The key is to get on the train.

3. The point is: there are very, very few tokens that can go to the moon. But I believe BTC should be the least controversial one. So my solution is simple: go with assets led by BTC. Decentralized-wise, I look at BTC; centralized-wise, I look at BNB.

4. Of course, my approach is too ordinary. Most people have heard of it. And many people don’t agree with my method—after all, most people come to this space aiming for 100x coins, aiming to turn their lives around in half a year.

5. I just accepted it long ago—I’m not the kind of person who can change my life in half a year. For example, the “dog-chasing and profit contest” that Binance Wallet ends today: as long as you don’t lose money, you can get on the profit leaderboard! What difficulty level do you think “dog chasing” or playing copycats is?

Don’t leave, everyone! Although Alpha hasn’t recovered and can’t distribute airdrops, Binance can provide subsidies out of its own pocket! There are estimated to be 80,000 people with 200 points or more, so 5 USDT per person could cover two days of fees 😂

This plunge in $ETH brought even the ancient whales out of hiding. A whale made a massive buy-the-dip move, with an average purchase price of 2248. The first wave of buying early this morning was 2,221 $ETH

I'm saying this news is hugely bullish for $BTC . Who agrees, and who disagrees?

But I don't recommend Teacher Cang getting into contracts—otherwise, she'd have to go back to her old line of work 🤐

Last night, U.S. stocks plunged, led by AI stocks, because this news sparked panic. The sell-off also spilled over into the crypto market, where prices fell across the board.

But actually, there’s no need to panic:

1. This bill is really just an excuse to make a point. Here’s the background: Democrats have long favored clean energy and been wary of AI. Since AI data centers consume a lot of electricity and drive up household electricity costs in the U.S., the public is strongly opposed to them. This Democrat seized the opportunity to bring the bill back up;

2. In reality, the bill is very unlikely to pass. Democrats do have an advantage in the Senate, but they only have 54 votes. The bill needs 60 votes to end debate and move forward, and Democrats can’t get that many. Even if it did pass, the president could veto it and send it back to the Senate for another vote. That would require 67 votes, which is very difficult.

3. So this downturn was really driven by panic. And although Democrats may not be able to pass AI legislation, they can still create obstacles over many small details, so some of the froth has been taken out of AI stocks.

4. But we in crypto don’t need to panic. Wall Street moving into crypto is a major trend. Democrats are indeed not very crypto-friendly, but they haven’t reached the point of deliberately suppressing the industry. So while progress in crypto may slow down, it’s still in line with the pace of a slow bull market over three years. So I’m continuing to buy the dip $BTC

$BTC It's time to buy the dip, guys—buy in batches. This could be the last drop at any moment, and getting in is more important!

What does this announcement from $PREDICT mean?

The token airdrop scheduled for today won't be sent for now. It will be sent after TGE, together with the next batch.

There probably won't be any Alpha airdrops this week. The Alpha community has finally given up hope. That's all for now, everyone—see you next week.

It's Thursday already, and Binance hasn't dropped any Alpha airdrops in the first half of this week. That means the unwritten rule of two airdrops a week has gone out the window too.

The reason for no airdrops is easy to understand: Binance has just suffered the biggest hack in its history, and on-chain trading for Alpha tokens still hasn't opened, so there's plenty of reason to hold off for now.

All I can say is, I feel for the grinders still sticking with Alpha—they're just losing money on fees, and there's no telling when the airdrops will resume.

Luckily, after I complained last time about the low barrier to entry for $PREDICT 's token sale and how it went against the spirit of Alpha, I stopped grinding. 😂

I’ve seen a lot of people asking how to use this 100 USDT trading fee rebate voucher, so here’s an explanation:

1. Tap to use the voucher and make sure it shows “Active.” Then trade spot as usual, and Binance will credit the fee rebate to your account the next day.

2. The rebate is 30% of the amount remaining after commission rebates are deducted:

If you trade 10,000 USDT worth of spot, you’ll pay a 0.1% spot trading fee, which is 10 USDT;
If your commission rebate rate is 40%, then after the rebate is deducted, 60% of the fee remains—that’s 6 USDT;
Binance will then credit 30% of that 6 USDT to your account, which is 1.8 USDT.
The next day, the balance on your 100 USDT fee voucher will be 98.2 USDT. Once the balance reaches 0, it means you’ve used up the voucher.

3. If you haven’t linked a wallet invite code yet, do it as soon as you can. You can save 30% on fees when trading on-chain U.S. stocks, trading dog-themed meme coins, or buying and selling Alpha and other on-chain tokens.

How to link it: On the Binance App, go to the Wallet homepage and tap “Invite” → tap “Enter invitation code” → enter “ZG666” and confirm. That’s it. ​​​

The new members of Congress haven’t even taken office yet, and the reckoning has already begun: $WLFI and $TRUMP are going to have to pay, and $BNB could even be implicated.

WLFI previously made a big show of leveraging Trump’s family connections. Now it’s first in line to be investigated. Binance could also get caught up in this, given its close ties with USD1 and the fact that CZ received a pardon.

Still, BNB has a large market cap and strong fundamentals, and it has little connection to this affair, so it shouldn’t be fazed by this minor negative news.

Garcia, who is expected to take over as chair of the House Oversight Committee when Congress convenes next January, has already sent Trump’s family a message: “Get a lawyer.” Warren, who is widely expected to take over as chair of the Senate Banking Committee, has repeatedly called WLFI’s dealings corrupt.

The main issue is that WLFI and TRUMP aren’t exactly clean either:

1. The UAE’s national security adviser poured $500 million into WLFI shares, with an initial payment of about $200 million going directly to Trump’s family. The U.S. government later approved the sale of advanced AI chips to the UAE.

2. A statistical report says Trump’s family made billions of dollars from tokens such as TRUMP and WLFI.

3. Trump’s youngest son’s ties to prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket have also drawn the attention of the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations.

This run is still doing $BTC a favor. I said this afternoon that I thought its rebound was too weak, and that it should break 80,000.

Turns out it was holding back for an evening surge! It’s shooting up like crazy—it’s already at 81,000.

The midterm elections wrapped up early, and influence shifted from the Republican Party to the Democratic Party. Whose world is about to come crashing down, and who’s getting an opportunity? #美国中期选举：市场有哪些期待？

1. $BTC needs little explanation. Everyone knows Trump is a crypto-friendly president, so the crypto industry is likely to face regulatory crackdowns next, and the progress of RWA will certainly be affected.

2. Companies owned by people like Musk, who have openly sided with the Republicans, are bound to take a hit. For example, $SPCXB will probably face all kinds of unfriendly policies going forward. Zuckerberg, who follows the wind and throws money around, probably won’t get much better treatment.

But companies like Google $GOOGL , with their deep-blue roots and clear support for the Democrats, can finally step into the spotlight.

3. As for industries, Trump once strongly supported AI. After hints last month that AI might be restricted, restrictive regulations are now likely to follow, and the chip bull market may be coming to an end. Meanwhile, clean energy, once championed by the Democrats, may be in for a spring.

Wasn’t Trump’s crushing defeat in the midterm elections bad news? So why did $BTC go up?

Because you shouldn’t think about investing on the first level—you should use second-level thinking: everyone expected Trump to lose the midterms, so BTC had already fallen from $86,000 to $76,000 by today. (For example, I’d been predicting since mid-October that Trump would lose.)

Before the results came out today, the probability of Trump losing the midterms was 92%. In other words, 92% of the drop this result was expected to cause had already been priced in.

Since everyone had already anticipated the bad news, what was likely to happen today? Most likely, the news would be absorbed and trigger a reversal—that’s what’s known as second-level thinking. (I’m not saying this with the benefit of hindsight; I’ve held this view since last week, and I told my followers the same thing in private messages today.)

Of course, not every instance of bad news being priced in turns into good news. What matters is whether there’s even worse news ahead. Today’s V-shaped rebound was actually pretty weak; it only recovered the losses from the day before yesterday. The Democrats could turn against the crypto industry at any moment, so bulls don’t dare charge ahead aggressively.

If there’s no foreseeable bad news over the next two months, BTC will absolutely rebound to above $80,000.

Binance has launched a campaign to retain customers. I think the perks are pretty good, so why are so many people complaining?

1. Why are they running this campaign?
Because after Binance reopened withdrawals the day before yesterday, there was a net outflow of 4.72 billion, equal to 3% of its total assets. Binance obviously has to find a way to keep customers’ funds on the platform.

2. What perks can ordinary users get?
(1) Binance’s main goal is to retain funds, so the most generous perks are in its Earn campaign: all users can earn an annual yield of around 10% on assets such as USDT and USDC in the Earn section—more than twice the usual rate. The limits are pretty decent too: 10,000/50,000.

(2) User engagement comes second, so they’re offering fee rebate vouchers and a trading campaign: users across the platform can share 20 million based on their share of trading volume; meanwhile, all users will receive a 100 U fee rebate voucher during the campaign.

Two things to note: you need to trade at least 10,000 U to qualify for a share of the rewards; the fee rebate voucher only refunds 30% of fees after commission rebates are deducted—it’s not a full refund.

3. Is it worth participating? The Earn campaign is worth it—the subsidies are quite generous. There’s no need to join the trading competition unless you get a high commission rebate. Without a commission rebate, you’ll actually lose 70% of the trading fees.

If you haven’t linked a Binance Wallet invitation code yet, do it soon to save 30% on fees. Here’s how: on the Binance app, go to the Wallet home page, tap “Invite” → tap “Enter invitation code” → enter “ZG666” and confirm. That’s it. ​​​

I didn’t expect $BNB to end up being the token with the smallest gain in this round of buying the dip 😂

There are actually no winners in this hacking incident:

1. 4 billion in funds flowed out of Binance, but the platform next door received only 370 million, and $HYPE received only 240 million. The rest went to cold wallets.

2. If the funds sent to cold wallets are actually stolen, there won’t even be a platform to fall back on. For example, in the previous Ledger hardware wallet incident, victims had no choice but to accept their losses.

3. The sell-off of $BTC and others is now a foregone conclusion. It will take time for the liquidated longs and market panic to recover.

Binance reopened withdrawals yesterday, with a net outflow of 3.64 billion, equivalent to 2.1% of the platform’s total assets.

Binance has made it through this major hack. This time, it didn’t trigger a bank run or panic selling, and sentiment seems to have bottomed out.

Once the bearish impact of the midterm elections has passed, $BTC will probably start climbing.