诸葛投研
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诸葛投研
Square Verified+2017年底进币圈的老韭菜，原股票持证投顾。只分享自己交易，不代表投资建议，跟着操作盈亏自负。视频号“诸葛web3投研”，已经20w粉，欢迎来找我。
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Some fans asked me: if I don’t buy this, and I don’t touch that, is there actually any coin trading going on?
My answer is boring—so boring that this post probably won’t get much traffic: yes, I am trading crypto, but basically I’ve only bought $BTC , $BNB , and $SOL . The rest are just “lottery” positions, just messing around. (That’s also why my analysis tries to stay as objective as possible—I don’t need to shout calls to get people to bag-hold for me.)
1. The one I’m down on the most right now is BNB. Since I needed to participate in Alpha’s TGE, I habitually kept holding BNB, which affected my investment judgment—I didn’t manage to trim at the top. So strictly speaking, I don’t even know whether playing Alpha made me lose or profit.
2. BTC and SOL were built up in batches during this round of decline. I think BTC may still drop, but I started averaging in when BTC was already above 70,000. In my view, if a token is destined to go to the moon, then boarding on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau versus boarding in the Tarim Basin—there isn’t much difference. The key is to get on the train.
3. The point is: there are very, very few tokens that can go to the moon. But I believe BTC should be the least controversial one. So my solution is simple: go with assets led by BTC. Decentralized-wise, I look at BTC; centralized-wise, I look at BNB.
4. Of course, my approach is too ordinary. Most people have heard of it. And many people don’t agree with my method—after all, most people come to this space aiming for 100x coins, aiming to turn their lives around in half a year.
5. I just accepted it long ago—I’m not the kind of person who can change my life in half a year. For example, the “dog-chasing and profit contest” that Binance Wallet ends today: as long as you don’t lose money, you can get on the profit leaderboard! What difficulty level do you think “dog chasing” or playing copycats is?
My answer is boring—so boring that this post probably won’t get much traffic: yes, I am trading crypto, but basically I’ve only bought $BTC , $BNB , and $SOL . The rest are just “lottery” positions, just messing around. (That’s also why my analysis tries to stay as objective as possible—I don’t need to shout calls to get people to bag-hold for me.)
1. The one I’m down on the most right now is BNB. Since I needed to participate in Alpha’s TGE, I habitually kept holding BNB, which affected my investment judgment—I didn’t manage to trim at the top. So strictly speaking, I don’t even know whether playing Alpha made me lose or profit.
2. BTC and SOL were built up in batches during this round of decline. I think BTC may still drop, but I started averaging in when BTC was already above 70,000. In my view, if a token is destined to go to the moon, then boarding on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau versus boarding in the Tarim Basin—there isn’t much difference. The key is to get on the train.
3. The point is: there are very, very few tokens that can go to the moon. But I believe BTC should be the least controversial one. So my solution is simple: go with assets led by BTC. Decentralized-wise, I look at BTC; centralized-wise, I look at BNB.
4. Of course, my approach is too ordinary. Most people have heard of it. And many people don’t agree with my method—after all, most people come to this space aiming for 100x coins, aiming to turn their lives around in half a year.
5. I just accepted it long ago—I’m not the kind of person who can change my life in half a year. For example, the “dog-chasing and profit contest” that Binance Wallet ends today: as long as you don’t lose money, you can get on the profit leaderboard! What difficulty level do you think “dog chasing” or playing copycats is?
诸葛投研
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The much-anticipated Grvt is indeed here, but it may not be as big as everyone imagined—at least not in terms of size:
1. The final threshold is 245 points, with only 30,000 allocations total, meaning 100 Grvt per person. At the pre-market price of 0.35u, each single allocation is 35u. 123 is just there to comfort everyone—it shows a pre-market value of 200u, but it actually uses a somewhat imprecise data scope.
2. This airdrop isn’t as large as people expected, because Alpha’s allocation share is only 0.3%, down from the expected 1%, which is a 70% direct reduction. Also, allocations must be spread as widely as possible; otherwise everyone would be furious at AnAn—so they could only make each individual “slice” smaller.
3. But honestly, Alpha’s resources really have been reduced. Everyone look at Binance’s official posts—lately they’ve been talking about bStocks. The direct impact is that Alpha only gets 0.3% of the allocation, far less than the 1% over on the other side.
4. So all we can say is: at least it wasn’t a TGE. Life is about digesting pain so you can have the strength to keep moving forward.
1. The final threshold is 245 points, with only 30,000 allocations total, meaning 100 Grvt per person. At the pre-market price of 0.35u, each single allocation is 35u. 123 is just there to comfort everyone—it shows a pre-market value of 200u, but it actually uses a somewhat imprecise data scope.
2. This airdrop isn’t as large as people expected, because Alpha’s allocation share is only 0.3%, down from the expected 1%, which is a 70% direct reduction. Also, allocations must be spread as widely as possible; otherwise everyone would be furious at AnAn—so they could only make each individual “slice” smaller.
3. But honestly, Alpha’s resources really have been reduced. Everyone look at Binance’s official posts—lately they’ve been talking about bStocks. The direct impact is that Alpha only gets 0.3% of the allocation, far less than the 1% over on the other side.
4. So all we can say is: at least it wasn’t a TGE. Life is about digesting pain so you can have the strength to keep moving forward.
PINNED
Hahaha! Good news! My AnAn wallet referral commission is finally at the top tier—up to 80%! If you want to save on fees, quickly bind “ZG666”.
1. What’s the use of binding it? It’s simple—save money! When you trade on the AnAn wallet, there are two types of charges: one is a very low gas fee, about 0.02u per transaction; the other is a 0.5% service fee, charged based on the transaction amount. If you enter the invite code, this 0.5% service fee can be waived.
2. My current referral commission is 80%—the highest tier. AnAn has set the minimum allocation ratio between the inviter and the invited at at least 10%. Now there’s also a commission cap in the back office, so the maximum commission you can earn is up to 30%. I’ve already set it up. Once you enter my invite code, you can save 30% on the service fee.
3. If later the wallet’s commission cap is raised, I’ll continue setting it to the highest level until 80% (my own 10% commission doesn’t count toward this 80%, so I will still get at least 10% as well).
4. Why give so much back? Everyone needs to make transactions first, and only then will I earn referral commission income. If I give more, people will be more willing to trade on the AnAn wallet instead of the wallet next door. The more you trade on AnAn, the higher my 10% commission income will be.
5. If you think my content helps you in your day-to-day life, binding the referral commission code is the biggest support you can give me. How to bind it? On the wallet home page, tap “Invite Friends” → tap “Enter Invite Code” → enter “ZG666” and confirm. That’s it.
1. What’s the use of binding it? It’s simple—save money! When you trade on the AnAn wallet, there are two types of charges: one is a very low gas fee, about 0.02u per transaction; the other is a 0.5% service fee, charged based on the transaction amount. If you enter the invite code, this 0.5% service fee can be waived.
2. My current referral commission is 80%—the highest tier. AnAn has set the minimum allocation ratio between the inviter and the invited at at least 10%. Now there’s also a commission cap in the back office, so the maximum commission you can earn is up to 30%. I’ve already set it up. Once you enter my invite code, you can save 30% on the service fee.
3. If later the wallet’s commission cap is raised, I’ll continue setting it to the highest level until 80% (my own 10% commission doesn’t count toward this 80%, so I will still get at least 10% as well).
4. Why give so much back? Everyone needs to make transactions first, and only then will I earn referral commission income. If I give more, people will be more willing to trade on the AnAn wallet instead of the wallet next door. The more you trade on AnAn, the higher my 10% commission income will be.
5. If you think my content helps you in your day-to-day life, binding the referral commission code is the biggest support you can give me. How to bind it? On the wallet home page, tap “Invite Friends” → tap “Enter Invite Code” → enter “ZG666” and confirm. That’s it.
The upward trend of $ETH likely isn’t over yet. Last night’s non-farm payrolls data went horribly, giving ETH a nice wave of bullish news. This week should keep rising.
1. Last night’s non-farm payrolls data was far below expectations. Everyone started to re-price the idea of rate cuts, which means risk assets are becoming more favored, and capital has already flowed to the relatively strong $ETH .
2. It’s probably institutions positioning for rate cuts in advance, because the spot ETF for the second “bèi” has already been crazily netting in 220 million over the past 7 days. (Although most of it is incremental from one main player.)
3. Yesterday, they also began testing the Glamsterdam upgrade. Next week will start the public test, and the market is already front-running the expansion news.
ETH is relatively “clean” in terms of liquidity, because it was washed once pretty hard before. So with these bullish catalysts, it should show up relatively clearly. With non-farm payrolls tailwinds, I’m fairly optimistic about this week—let’s see whether next week’s CPI might interrupt the momentum.
1. Last night’s non-farm payrolls data was far below expectations. Everyone started to re-price the idea of rate cuts, which means risk assets are becoming more favored, and capital has already flowed to the relatively strong $ETH .
2. It’s probably institutions positioning for rate cuts in advance, because the spot ETF for the second “bèi” has already been crazily netting in 220 million over the past 7 days. (Although most of it is incremental from one main player.)
3. Yesterday, they also began testing the Glamsterdam upgrade. Next week will start the public test, and the market is already front-running the expansion news.
ETH is relatively “clean” in terms of liquidity, because it was washed once pretty hard before. So with these bullish catalysts, it should show up relatively clearly. With non-farm payrolls tailwinds, I’m fairly optimistic about this week—let’s see whether next week’s CPI might interrupt the momentum.
Verified
The Non-Farm Payrolls data came out last night: employment fell by 23,000 jobs. Compared with the market expectation of an increase of 80,000, you could say the data blew up. $BTC jumped on the news.#美国7月非农意外下降
1. Why would weak Non-Farm employment data make it go up instead? Because a Non-Farm “blow-up” means the economy is too weak, so the Fed will most likely cut rates. Risk assets benefit from that. So today BTC rallied on the news.
2. Many institutions probably positioned for the Non-Farm “blow-up,” because spot ETFs have already seen net inflows for 5 consecutive days from the 3rd to today, with total inflows over 7 days reaching $720 million.
3. But don’t get too optimistic. In the past, when there was such a positive surprise, BTC typically would surge directly by 3%~5%, but this time it only rose by 1%—too little. That suggests the market still lacks confidence, and people remain worried about inflation.
Especially this year, whales have accumulated a value increase of 1.2 billion BTC, which indicates there is still buying demand. But since price is still only up 1%, it suggests institutions are only making tentative entries.
In the short term, I’m bullish. But don’t chase the price—reduce leverage and wait to see next week’s CPI.
1. Why would weak Non-Farm employment data make it go up instead? Because a Non-Farm “blow-up” means the economy is too weak, so the Fed will most likely cut rates. Risk assets benefit from that. So today BTC rallied on the news.
2. Many institutions probably positioned for the Non-Farm “blow-up,” because spot ETFs have already seen net inflows for 5 consecutive days from the 3rd to today, with total inflows over 7 days reaching $720 million.
3. But don’t get too optimistic. In the past, when there was such a positive surprise, BTC typically would surge directly by 3%~5%, but this time it only rose by 1%—too little. That suggests the market still lacks confidence, and people remain worried about inflation.
Especially this year, whales have accumulated a value increase of 1.2 billion BTC, which indicates there is still buying demand. But since price is still only up 1%, it suggests institutions are only making tentative entries.
In the short term, I’m bullish. But don’t chase the price—reduce leverage and wait to see next week’s CPI.
$BSB Today QQQB just canceled 4x, and then BSB precisely trapped people. That’s brutal.
Partly True
Shocking: <0>$SPCXB </0> was released for trading for the first time. With potential sell pressure worth 100 billion, it actually didn’t drop today—it went up instead:
1. Musk led the hype call and urged everyone not to sell. He even managed to convince employees (maybe they also thought the price was too low). In the end, only the IPO institutions were still selling.
Turns out that the potential 100 billion worth of sell pressure sold only about 10 billion 😂
2. Another effect of the release was unexpected: before the release, <0>$SPCX </0> had only 5% free float, and pricing power was in the hands of market makers and hedge funds, who had opened lots of short positions.
But now that it’s been released, the circulating supply has risen to 20%+. Instead of letting the market makers and hedge funds control the pricing, the power has shifted back to the market. The large number of short positions they covered ended up absorbing the sell pressure and also pushing the coin price higher.
3. Musk is still amazing—he even managed to get everyone to believe not to sell. So the market is resetting expectations: if everyone doesn’t sell this time, will they also not sell when the next unlock comes?
But I’ve decided to observe a bit longer. SpaceX employees are still “small fry.” Even if they find today’s price cheap, when Musk continues to spend big money investing in AI—causing institutions to exit and the coin price to drop—there may be panic and people cutting losses.
Then I’ll consider entering. <0>#SpaceX </0>
1. Musk led the hype call and urged everyone not to sell. He even managed to convince employees (maybe they also thought the price was too low). In the end, only the IPO institutions were still selling.
Turns out that the potential 100 billion worth of sell pressure sold only about 10 billion 😂
2. Another effect of the release was unexpected: before the release, <0>$SPCX </0> had only 5% free float, and pricing power was in the hands of market makers and hedge funds, who had opened lots of short positions.
But now that it’s been released, the circulating supply has risen to 20%+. Instead of letting the market makers and hedge funds control the pricing, the power has shifted back to the market. The large number of short positions they covered ended up absorbing the sell pressure and also pushing the coin price higher.
3. Musk is still amazing—he even managed to get everyone to believe not to sell. So the market is resetting expectations: if everyone doesn’t sell this time, will they also not sell when the next unlock comes?
But I’ve decided to observe a bit longer. SpaceX employees are still “small fry.” Even if they find today’s price cheap, when Musk continues to spend big money investing in AI—causing institutions to exit and the coin price to drop—there may be panic and people cutting losses.
Then I’ll consider entering. <0>#SpaceX </0>
Verified
$SKHYNIX Hynix: didn’t they already issue the dividend announcement today? Shouldn’t it go up? Why is it falling instead? I think there are three reasons:
1. The biggest reason is that expectations were priced in too heavily: last month, rumors about the company got out of hand—people said there would be a 66.4 billion won share buyback plus a big dividend “gift package.” But this time, the announcement only offered a small dividend of 375 won per share plus details to be determined for Q3.
What does 375 won even mean? At a share price of 1.42 million won, the quarterly dividend yield is 0.02%—annualized, it’s under 0.1%. It’s far too low. In other words, expectations were missed.
2. The stock price already ran up in advance: this year, Hynix has helped drive a 47% rise in the Korean market. And since Korean retail investors are among the most fond of using leverage, the market essentially digested the good news early. So once the announcement actually landed, it turned into a point to sell off.
3. Of course, there’s also the broader pullback in the memory-chip sector: U.S. memory stocks led by SanDisk have also been plunging. The entire HBM segment is in a bad mood, and Hynix got dragged down along with it. #SK海力士拟191万亿韩元投建M17工厂
1. The biggest reason is that expectations were priced in too heavily: last month, rumors about the company got out of hand—people said there would be a 66.4 billion won share buyback plus a big dividend “gift package.” But this time, the announcement only offered a small dividend of 375 won per share plus details to be determined for Q3.
What does 375 won even mean? At a share price of 1.42 million won, the quarterly dividend yield is 0.02%—annualized, it’s under 0.1%. It’s far too low. In other words, expectations were missed.
2. The stock price already ran up in advance: this year, Hynix has helped drive a 47% rise in the Korean market. And since Korean retail investors are among the most fond of using leverage, the market essentially digested the good news early. So once the announcement actually landed, it turned into a point to sell off.
3. Of course, there’s also the broader pullback in the memory-chip sector: U.S. memory stocks led by SanDisk have also been plunging. The entire HBM segment is in a bad mood, and Hynix got dragged down along with it. #SK海力士拟191万亿韩元投建M17工厂
Partly True
Tonight the Non-Farm Payrolls data is out. Let’s hope it doesn’t shake up the market and break the current upward consolidation trend around $ETH :
1. ETF shows four consecutive weeks of net inflows with increased volume (strong structure)
Net inflow over 7 days is 99 million, and over 30 days it’s more than 300 million, indicating institutions are continuously buying.
2. Smart money is also locking funds up: the staked supply has risen to 37.85M ETH, meaning the money is flowing into staking. I even saw a whale directly stake 112,000 ETH.
3. There’s also the expectation of the Glamansterdam upgrade in the second half of the year—expanding blob capacity + built-in PBS—both are potential positives. There’s no activation date yet, but the market is front-running the anticipation. The EIP-8361 draft (if more than 50% of the supply is staked, then validator rewards are burned) is also part of a long-term deflationary narrative.
4. Of course, no matter how much I say, tonight’s Non-Farm Payrolls and inflation data will ultimately determine the direction.
If Non-Farm Payrolls + inflation come in weak, ETH’s high beta offers the biggest upside elasticity—it may hold above 2000. If they come in strong, the 1850 support could be at risk.
1. ETF shows four consecutive weeks of net inflows with increased volume (strong structure)
Net inflow over 7 days is 99 million, and over 30 days it’s more than 300 million, indicating institutions are continuously buying.
2. Smart money is also locking funds up: the staked supply has risen to 37.85M ETH, meaning the money is flowing into staking. I even saw a whale directly stake 112,000 ETH.
3. There’s also the expectation of the Glamansterdam upgrade in the second half of the year—expanding blob capacity + built-in PBS—both are potential positives. There’s no activation date yet, but the market is front-running the anticipation. The EIP-8361 draft (if more than 50% of the supply is staked, then validator rewards are burned) is also part of a long-term deflationary narrative.
4. Of course, no matter how much I say, tonight’s Non-Farm Payrolls and inflation data will ultimately determine the direction.
If Non-Farm Payrolls + inflation come in weak, ETH’s high beta offers the biggest upside elasticity—it may hold above 2000. If they come in strong, the 1850 support could be at risk.
$TRUMP 的拉胯连美国参议员都看不下去了😂，写信给SEC要求调查川子和他家族。
TRUMP自去年1月上线以来，最高涨到过73u，甚至当时都刷爆了我的朋友圈。结果从最高73美元一路跌到了现在的1美元，市值蒸发98%，这他妈就是“soft跑路”啊。
TRUMP自去年1月上线以来，最高涨到过73u，甚至当时都刷爆了我的朋友圈。结果从最高73美元一路跌到了现在的1美元，市值蒸发98%，这他妈就是“soft跑路”啊。
Old coins airdrop tonight at 19:00, 245 minutes, mystery box mode. Estimated 10,000 copies. Most people are 25u; lucky ones get 100u.
The day before yesterday I was stuck at 243 points—so are friends who grinded extra points feeling it?
No more to say about old coins. Wishing everyone to grab the hidden item.
The day before yesterday I was stuck at 243 points—so are friends who grinded extra points feeling it?
No more to say about old coins. Wishing everyone to grab the hidden item.
Verified
Tonight is SpaceX’s first stock release, and it’s also the largest in U.S. stock history.
1. According to the unlocking rules: after the earnings report was released the day before yesterday, today is the unlock date. It will unlock 20% of the shares held by insiders and employees—about 912 million shares. At current prices, that translates to potential selling pressure of over $100 billion.
2. These people will very likely cash out. Employees, after all, are counting on this money to change their class status. So today’s unlock should be the worst one in terms of selling pressure. And they will unlock additional ~7% on August 20, September 9, September 24, October 9, and October 24 this year as well. It feels like when the price is most under pressure—$SPCXB — is coming.
3. Add to that what Musk said clearly during the earnings call: the $18.4 billion in capital expenditures will all be poured into AI infrastructure, and they’ll keep smashing money into it—aiming for over 2GW of compute by the end of the year and nearly 10GW by next year. This suggests that even this year and next year, you won’t see much cash. It further intensifies concerns.
I’m not brave enough to buy into $SPCX right now—I feel like I’ll wait and see until the end of the year. Brothers who are shorting, go ahead.
1. According to the unlocking rules: after the earnings report was released the day before yesterday, today is the unlock date. It will unlock 20% of the shares held by insiders and employees—about 912 million shares. At current prices, that translates to potential selling pressure of over $100 billion.
2. These people will very likely cash out. Employees, after all, are counting on this money to change their class status. So today’s unlock should be the worst one in terms of selling pressure. And they will unlock additional ~7% on August 20, September 9, September 24, October 9, and October 24 this year as well. It feels like when the price is most under pressure—$SPCXB — is coming.
3. Add to that what Musk said clearly during the earnings call: the $18.4 billion in capital expenditures will all be poured into AI infrastructure, and they’ll keep smashing money into it—aiming for over 2GW of compute by the end of the year and nearly 10GW by next year. This suggests that even this year and next year, you won’t see much cash. It further intensifies concerns.
I’m not brave enough to buy into $SPCX right now—I feel like I’ll wait and see until the end of the year. Brothers who are shorting, go ahead.
Yesterday I read a report published by market-maker big shot Wintermute, and I was shocked: in the first half of this year, the share of spot trading volume attributable to institutional investors rose from 59% last year to 72%!
1. This shows that retail investors are gradually being washed out. Five years ago, retail’s share was 80%—now it’s reversed.
2. The report said that the money institutions bring in is mainly through the ETF channel, meaning they treat crypto as an asset allocation rather than chasing 100x returns. As a result, most of the institutions’ money is concentrated in these leading mainstream coins: $BTC $ETH $SOL
3. I originally thought that the incremental capital for the next bull market would have to rely on these Wall Street institutions, but I didn’t expect them to be entering the market now. Of course, the decline in retail’s share should also be related to them moving into AI.
4. But don’t expect to see any altcoin upside: both altcoin liquidity and volatility are falling at the same time. With institutions only buying mainstream coins, the number of different token types bought by retail investors actually increased by 76%. In other words, retail investors are being slaughtered in the altcoin pool.
1. This shows that retail investors are gradually being washed out. Five years ago, retail’s share was 80%—now it’s reversed.
2. The report said that the money institutions bring in is mainly through the ETF channel, meaning they treat crypto as an asset allocation rather than chasing 100x returns. As a result, most of the institutions’ money is concentrated in these leading mainstream coins: $BTC $ETH $SOL
3. I originally thought that the incremental capital for the next bull market would have to rely on these Wall Street institutions, but I didn’t expect them to be entering the market now. Of course, the decline in retail’s share should also be related to them moving into AI.
4. But don’t expect to see any altcoin upside: both altcoin liquidity and volatility are falling at the same time. With institutions only buying mainstream coins, the number of different token types bought by retail investors actually increased by 76%. In other words, retail investors are being slaughtered in the altcoin pool.
诸葛投研
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Time really drags on—half a month finally comes to an end. Last, let’s talk about the future price movement of $BABY :
1. The past half month’s performance has honestly surprised me. At the start, I thought the project team behind @BabylonLabs_io would take advantage of timing (TBV Vault, cooperation with Aave V4 to unlock liquidity), and geography (a large number of KOCs posting and doing educational content) to stage a round of hype and push the price up.
This kind of hype isn’t hard to pull off—for example, writing “buyback and burn” of BABY into the smart contract, and then announcing that the first batch will be burned directly on the same day. But unfortunately, that didn’t happen. Instead, the coin price fell from 0.013u to 0.01u…
2. And it’s predictable that on the 10th we’ll soon face a new wave of sell pressure from the 2.5 million u being unlocked. The unlocked tokens still go to investors, the team, and advisors with extremely low cost bases, so their intention to sell is very strong.
3. With liquidity already extremely weak at $BTC , the entire altcoin market is basically ignored. Especially for a Babylon project that has a strong underlying foundation (TVL at 51,000 BTC, #1 in the BTCFi narrative; with TBV + Aave V4 cooperation, plus integration with Ledger hardware wallets—ready to take off), yet the market’s reaction doesn’t translate into the coin price. The coin price is still down by 30%—for such a project, it’s even harder for capital to pay attention.
4. Also, I’m fairly pessimistic about the broader market trend in August. Over the past four years, BTC has closed lower in August. And on average over those four years, August fell by 10%, the worst-performing month of the year (related to Wall Street institutions).
This year, there’s also the possibility of September rate hikes putting pressure on the market, and sentiment is already poor. I estimate the overall market is mainly set to fall, so with BABY involved, it’s also very likely to drop—#baby .
What do you think? Would you buy $BABY ?
1. The past half month’s performance has honestly surprised me. At the start, I thought the project team behind @BabylonLabs_io would take advantage of timing (TBV Vault, cooperation with Aave V4 to unlock liquidity), and geography (a large number of KOCs posting and doing educational content) to stage a round of hype and push the price up.
This kind of hype isn’t hard to pull off—for example, writing “buyback and burn” of BABY into the smart contract, and then announcing that the first batch will be burned directly on the same day. But unfortunately, that didn’t happen. Instead, the coin price fell from 0.013u to 0.01u…
2. And it’s predictable that on the 10th we’ll soon face a new wave of sell pressure from the 2.5 million u being unlocked. The unlocked tokens still go to investors, the team, and advisors with extremely low cost bases, so their intention to sell is very strong.
3. With liquidity already extremely weak at $BTC , the entire altcoin market is basically ignored. Especially for a Babylon project that has a strong underlying foundation (TVL at 51,000 BTC, #1 in the BTCFi narrative; with TBV + Aave V4 cooperation, plus integration with Ledger hardware wallets—ready to take off), yet the market’s reaction doesn’t translate into the coin price. The coin price is still down by 30%—for such a project, it’s even harder for capital to pay attention.
4. Also, I’m fairly pessimistic about the broader market trend in August. Over the past four years, BTC has closed lower in August. And on average over those four years, August fell by 10%, the worst-performing month of the year (related to Wall Street institutions).
This year, there’s also the possibility of September rate hikes putting pressure on the market, and sentiment is already poor. I estimate the overall market is mainly set to fall, so with BABY involved, it’s also very likely to drop—#baby .
What do you think? Would you buy $BABY ?
Verified
$SPCXB I jumped a bit yesterday, but the earnings report quickly knocked it down:
1. Although business revenue exceeded expectations, cost investment was even bigger. And the company said that costs will increase in the next two quarters, so people were basically scared off by Musk’s boldness.
2. Starlink is now its only cash cow. Revenue is 4.291 billion, accounting for 55% of total revenue. User growth reached 12 million—basically doubled—but average revenue per user fell from 85 to 66, which suggests it has also hit a bottleneck.
Meanwhile, its rocket business—the old mainstay—lost even more money. In Q2 it lost 542 million, with losses expanding by 47%.
Its AI business has become its biggest cash sink. In Q2 it spent 18.3 billion but only earned back 2.5 billion. Even the cash-cow business can’t fill this hole, and Q3 and Q4 are expected to be loss-making too—pretty scary.
3. It seems the strategy of selling $SPCXB in time was the right one. This year should be a low point for its stock price. SpaceX really is a great company, but right now it may not be a great stock price—and it’s likely to dip a bit more.
Starlink may be a money printer, but it can’t support the way the rocket and AI businesses are being built with this kind of approach. Business growth isn’t done like this—seizing market share certainly matters, but you can’t keep adding leverage.
In the end, one more thing: it still has to be $SPCX . Whose earnings report can be so good-looking—feels like watching a sci-fi movie.
1. Although business revenue exceeded expectations, cost investment was even bigger. And the company said that costs will increase in the next two quarters, so people were basically scared off by Musk’s boldness.
2. Starlink is now its only cash cow. Revenue is 4.291 billion, accounting for 55% of total revenue. User growth reached 12 million—basically doubled—but average revenue per user fell from 85 to 66, which suggests it has also hit a bottleneck.
Meanwhile, its rocket business—the old mainstay—lost even more money. In Q2 it lost 542 million, with losses expanding by 47%.
Its AI business has become its biggest cash sink. In Q2 it spent 18.3 billion but only earned back 2.5 billion. Even the cash-cow business can’t fill this hole, and Q3 and Q4 are expected to be loss-making too—pretty scary.
3. It seems the strategy of selling $SPCXB in time was the right one. This year should be a low point for its stock price. SpaceX really is a great company, but right now it may not be a great stock price—and it’s likely to dip a bit more.
Starlink may be a money printer, but it can’t support the way the rocket and AI businesses are being built with this kind of approach. Business growth isn’t done like this—seizing market share certainly matters, but you can’t keep adding leverage.
In the end, one more thing: it still has to be $SPCX . Whose earnings report can be so good-looking—feels like watching a sci-fi movie.
Thanks $GRVT for giving me a chance to get off. I won’t be so blindly optimistic anymore. Looking back now, it was just stupid—I knew it had community sell pressure, yet I still thought it was a matter of “cherishing tickets,” “refunding with a buyback,” and other reasons to hold my position. In reality, it’s already a project not worth holding a position for;
Thanks $QUID for giving me face—there was no sudden surge to slap me in the face. Yesterday, my conclusion was “don’t hold a position”: after the airdrop came down, it only rose a little before the public offering sell pressure, and then it was quickly hammered down. Even now it’s fallen so much that it’s almost breaking 0.1u.
Someone asked why the bullish news from Han Suo couldn’t move the market either. Actually, it can—just that everyone got the timing wrong. Han Suo’s bullish news was beneficial right when the message was first released. So yesterday, $QUID ’s pre-market price went from 0.064u to 0.14u, more than doubling. But it wasn’t bullish when it was “on” Han Suo—because this year Han Suo’s trading volume has already dropped by 80%, and users have gone to play other stocks like Hailix. There’s no fresh capital to take the bags. So “Shang Suo” timing was the opposite—it rose too little, too slowly.
Thanks $QUID for giving me face—there was no sudden surge to slap me in the face. Yesterday, my conclusion was “don’t hold a position”: after the airdrop came down, it only rose a little before the public offering sell pressure, and then it was quickly hammered down. Even now it’s fallen so much that it’s almost breaking 0.1u.
Someone asked why the bullish news from Han Suo couldn’t move the market either. Actually, it can—just that everyone got the timing wrong. Han Suo’s bullish news was beneficial right when the message was first released. So yesterday, $QUID ’s pre-market price went from 0.064u to 0.14u, more than doubling. But it wasn’t bullish when it was “on” Han Suo—because this year Han Suo’s trading volume has already dropped by 80%, and users have gone to play other stocks like Hailix. There’s no fresh capital to take the bags. So “Shang Suo” timing was the opposite—it rose too little, too slowly.
诸葛投研
·
--
Time really drags on—half a month finally comes to an end. Last, let’s talk about the future price movement of $BABY :
1. The past half month’s performance has honestly surprised me. At the start, I thought the project team behind @BabylonLabs_io would take advantage of timing (TBV Vault, cooperation with Aave V4 to unlock liquidity), and geography (a large number of KOCs posting and doing educational content) to stage a round of hype and push the price up.
This kind of hype isn’t hard to pull off—for example, writing “buyback and burn” of BABY into the smart contract, and then announcing that the first batch will be burned directly on the same day. But unfortunately, that didn’t happen. Instead, the coin price fell from 0.013u to 0.01u…
2. And it’s predictable that on the 10th we’ll soon face a new wave of sell pressure from the 2.5 million u being unlocked. The unlocked tokens still go to investors, the team, and advisors with extremely low cost bases, so their intention to sell is very strong.
3. With liquidity already extremely weak at $BTC , the entire altcoin market is basically ignored. Especially for a Babylon project that has a strong underlying foundation (TVL at 51,000 BTC, #1 in the BTCFi narrative; with TBV + Aave V4 cooperation, plus integration with Ledger hardware wallets—ready to take off), yet the market’s reaction doesn’t translate into the coin price. The coin price is still down by 30%—for such a project, it’s even harder for capital to pay attention.
4. Also, I’m fairly pessimistic about the broader market trend in August. Over the past four years, BTC has closed lower in August. And on average over those four years, August fell by 10%, the worst-performing month of the year (related to Wall Street institutions).
This year, there’s also the possibility of September rate hikes putting pressure on the market, and sentiment is already poor. I estimate the overall market is mainly set to fall, so with BABY involved, it’s also very likely to drop—#baby .
What do you think? Would you buy $BABY ?
1. The past half month’s performance has honestly surprised me. At the start, I thought the project team behind @BabylonLabs_io would take advantage of timing (TBV Vault, cooperation with Aave V4 to unlock liquidity), and geography (a large number of KOCs posting and doing educational content) to stage a round of hype and push the price up.
This kind of hype isn’t hard to pull off—for example, writing “buyback and burn” of BABY into the smart contract, and then announcing that the first batch will be burned directly on the same day. But unfortunately, that didn’t happen. Instead, the coin price fell from 0.013u to 0.01u…
2. And it’s predictable that on the 10th we’ll soon face a new wave of sell pressure from the 2.5 million u being unlocked. The unlocked tokens still go to investors, the team, and advisors with extremely low cost bases, so their intention to sell is very strong.
3. With liquidity already extremely weak at $BTC , the entire altcoin market is basically ignored. Especially for a Babylon project that has a strong underlying foundation (TVL at 51,000 BTC, #1 in the BTCFi narrative; with TBV + Aave V4 cooperation, plus integration with Ledger hardware wallets—ready to take off), yet the market’s reaction doesn’t translate into the coin price. The coin price is still down by 30%—for such a project, it’s even harder for capital to pay attention.
4. Also, I’m fairly pessimistic about the broader market trend in August. Over the past four years, BTC has closed lower in August. And on average over those four years, August fell by 10%, the worst-performing month of the year (related to Wall Street institutions).
This year, there’s also the possibility of September rate hikes putting pressure on the market, and sentiment is already poor. I estimate the overall market is mainly set to fall, so with BABY involved, it’s also very likely to drop—#baby .
What do you think? Would you buy $BABY ?
Time really drags on—half a month finally comes to an end. Last, let’s talk about the future price movement of $BABY :
1. The past half month’s performance has honestly surprised me. At the start, I thought the project team behind @BabylonLabs_io would take advantage of timing (TBV Vault, cooperation with Aave V4 to unlock liquidity), and geography (a large number of KOCs posting and doing educational content) to stage a round of hype and push the price up.
This kind of hype isn’t hard to pull off—for example, writing “buyback and burn” of BABY into the smart contract, and then announcing that the first batch will be burned directly on the same day. But unfortunately, that didn’t happen. Instead, the coin price fell from 0.013u to 0.01u…
2. And it’s predictable that on the 10th we’ll soon face a new wave of sell pressure from the 2.5 million u being unlocked. The unlocked tokens still go to investors, the team, and advisors with extremely low cost bases, so their intention to sell is very strong.
3. With liquidity already extremely weak at $BTC , the entire altcoin market is basically ignored. Especially for a Babylon project that has a strong underlying foundation (TVL at 51,000 BTC, #1 in the BTCFi narrative; with TBV + Aave V4 cooperation, plus integration with Ledger hardware wallets—ready to take off), yet the market’s reaction doesn’t translate into the coin price. The coin price is still down by 30%—for such a project, it’s even harder for capital to pay attention.
4. Also, I’m fairly pessimistic about the broader market trend in August. Over the past four years, BTC has closed lower in August. And on average over those four years, August fell by 10%, the worst-performing month of the year (related to Wall Street institutions).
This year, there’s also the possibility of September rate hikes putting pressure on the market, and sentiment is already poor. I estimate the overall market is mainly set to fall, so with BABY involved, it’s also very likely to drop—#baby .
What do you think? Would you buy $BABY ?
1. The past half month’s performance has honestly surprised me. At the start, I thought the project team behind @BabylonLabs_io would take advantage of timing (TBV Vault, cooperation with Aave V4 to unlock liquidity), and geography (a large number of KOCs posting and doing educational content) to stage a round of hype and push the price up.
This kind of hype isn’t hard to pull off—for example, writing “buyback and burn” of BABY into the smart contract, and then announcing that the first batch will be burned directly on the same day. But unfortunately, that didn’t happen. Instead, the coin price fell from 0.013u to 0.01u…
2. And it’s predictable that on the 10th we’ll soon face a new wave of sell pressure from the 2.5 million u being unlocked. The unlocked tokens still go to investors, the team, and advisors with extremely low cost bases, so their intention to sell is very strong.
3. With liquidity already extremely weak at $BTC , the entire altcoin market is basically ignored. Especially for a Babylon project that has a strong underlying foundation (TVL at 51,000 BTC, #1 in the BTCFi narrative; with TBV + Aave V4 cooperation, plus integration with Ledger hardware wallets—ready to take off), yet the market’s reaction doesn’t translate into the coin price. The coin price is still down by 30%—for such a project, it’s even harder for capital to pay attention.
4. Also, I’m fairly pessimistic about the broader market trend in August. Over the past four years, BTC has closed lower in August. And on average over those four years, August fell by 10%, the worst-performing month of the year (related to Wall Street institutions).
This year, there’s also the possibility of September rate hikes putting pressure on the market, and sentiment is already poor. I estimate the overall market is mainly set to fall, so with BABY involved, it’s also very likely to drop—#baby .
What do you think? Would you buy $BABY ?
小仓位搏一搏
17%
都是一帮KOC瞎叫，坚决不碰
83%
18 votes • Voting closed
Today's airdrop $QUID has been confirmed. At 21:00 tonight, the threshold is 243 points. The current pre-market price is 0.062u, and the value per order is 34u. My suggestion: don’t gamble.
1. This project did a public offering at a price of 0.045u, selling 5% of the allocation. Those people are all 100% unlocked today. Now the pre-market price is 0.062u—there will definitely be many sellers from the public offering.
2. The project is on the BASE chain. Back when Alpha was at its hottest, even if the BASE chain only had 1% sell pressure, there basically wasn’t any money to play with it. Now liquidity is so bad, and there’s also a 5% public-offering sell pressure—it's hard for it to rise.
3. Last week I claimed two useless $AEON $GRVT and I also held on, but the amount wasn’t enough. Wishing the brothers with enough points a prosperous outcome.
1. This project did a public offering at a price of 0.045u, selling 5% of the allocation. Those people are all 100% unlocked today. Now the pre-market price is 0.062u—there will definitely be many sellers from the public offering.
2. The project is on the BASE chain. Back when Alpha was at its hottest, even if the BASE chain only had 1% sell pressure, there basically wasn’t any money to play with it. Now liquidity is so bad, and there’s also a 5% public-offering sell pressure—it's hard for it to rise.
3. Last week I claimed two useless $AEON $GRVT and I also held on, but the amount wasn’t enough. Wishing the brothers with enough points a prosperous outcome.
诸葛投研
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TBV launches on Aave V4—$BTC gets into DeFi cleanly for the first time. Will this narrative hold?
1. Babylon and Aave partnered, and Aave’s founder publicly stated support for @BabylonLabs_io . This is the first native BTC directly using collateral on Aave V4 to borrow stablecoins—no wrapping, no bridging, and no custody. If this model can run, the way BTCFi works will change. #baby
2. Why does Aave dare to directly accept Babylon’s native BTC? Thanks to their TBV: it can lock BTC into Bitcoin mainnet Taproot UTXOs, and then generate vaultBTC as a collateral credential on the Ethereum side through zero-knowledge proofs.
With this setup, your BTC always stays on Bitcoin, and you keep the private key. But you can still borrow stablecoins using the collateral credential—entirely via code execution, with no intermediaries.
3. In the past, getting BTC into DeFi meant stripping three layers of skin: wBTC relied on custody, renBTC on bridging, and synthetic BTC on oracles. Interest was already low—after getting peeled by these three layers, there was basically no interest left. But TBV doesn’t require stripping at all; all the interest is yours. $BABY
4. It’s not just lending and borrowing. Babylon also partnered with Aegis to launch fixed-rate lending and borrowing, expected to go live in Q4 this year. Institutions using BTC as collateral fear floating rates the most. Fixed-rate products directly benchmark traditional finance’s repurchase agreements. From earning to borrowing to fixed-rate credit, Babylon is laying a complete BTC-chain financial pipeline. $BABY
Still, stay clear-headed: TBV is an innovation at the narrative level for BTCFi, with high directional certainty. But in the short term there isn’t mainnet data to support it, and the token won’t necessarily pump just because it goes live on testnet. This is a track worth monitoring long-term—not a near-term, next-week payoff.
1. Babylon and Aave partnered, and Aave’s founder publicly stated support for @BabylonLabs_io . This is the first native BTC directly using collateral on Aave V4 to borrow stablecoins—no wrapping, no bridging, and no custody. If this model can run, the way BTCFi works will change. #baby
2. Why does Aave dare to directly accept Babylon’s native BTC? Thanks to their TBV: it can lock BTC into Bitcoin mainnet Taproot UTXOs, and then generate vaultBTC as a collateral credential on the Ethereum side through zero-knowledge proofs.
With this setup, your BTC always stays on Bitcoin, and you keep the private key. But you can still borrow stablecoins using the collateral credential—entirely via code execution, with no intermediaries.
3. In the past, getting BTC into DeFi meant stripping three layers of skin: wBTC relied on custody, renBTC on bridging, and synthetic BTC on oracles. Interest was already low—after getting peeled by these three layers, there was basically no interest left. But TBV doesn’t require stripping at all; all the interest is yours. $BABY
4. It’s not just lending and borrowing. Babylon also partnered with Aegis to launch fixed-rate lending and borrowing, expected to go live in Q4 this year. Institutions using BTC as collateral fear floating rates the most. Fixed-rate products directly benchmark traditional finance’s repurchase agreements. From earning to borrowing to fixed-rate credit, Babylon is laying a complete BTC-chain financial pipeline. $BABY
Still, stay clear-headed: TBV is an innovation at the narrative level for BTCFi, with high directional certainty. But in the short term there isn’t mainnet data to support it, and the token won’t necessarily pump just because it goes live on testnet. This is a track worth monitoring long-term—not a near-term, next-week payoff.
Partly True
What’s wrong with these big shots—why do they love buying high and selling low?
Yesterday morning, Trump’s company Trump Media transferred 2,650 units of $BTC to the exchange—reportedly to sell. But the key point is: they bought these coins last year when the average price was $119,000.
In the early hours today, MicroStrategy was also reported to have sold 1,638 units of $BTC ……
So what, these big guys also like to do swing trades like I do as a retail investor? Or did Trump message them to get out first?
I’ll keep waiting for the last big drop to buy the final bottom:
1. The probability of a rate hike in September has surged to 55%, showing that capital is still fairly cautious about risk assets.
2. The oil situation has been dragging on for so long; inflation has already happened and is hard to undo.
3. U.S. stocks hitting new highs, AI continuing to rise—while still steadily pulling money out of the crypto market
Yesterday morning, Trump’s company Trump Media transferred 2,650 units of $BTC to the exchange—reportedly to sell. But the key point is: they bought these coins last year when the average price was $119,000.
In the early hours today, MicroStrategy was also reported to have sold 1,638 units of $BTC ……
So what, these big guys also like to do swing trades like I do as a retail investor? Or did Trump message them to get out first?
I’ll keep waiting for the last big drop to buy the final bottom:
1. The probability of a rate hike in September has surged to 55%, showing that capital is still fairly cautious about risk assets.
2. The oil situation has been dragging on for so long; inflation has already happened and is hard to undo.
3. U.S. stocks hitting new highs, AI continuing to rise—while still steadily pulling money out of the crypto market
Verified
TBV launches on Aave V4—$BTC gets into DeFi cleanly for the first time. Will this narrative hold?
1. Babylon and Aave partnered, and Aave’s founder publicly stated support for @BabylonLabs_io . This is the first native BTC directly using collateral on Aave V4 to borrow stablecoins—no wrapping, no bridging, and no custody. If this model can run, the way BTCFi works will change. #baby
2. Why does Aave dare to directly accept Babylon’s native BTC? Thanks to their TBV: it can lock BTC into Bitcoin mainnet Taproot UTXOs, and then generate vaultBTC as a collateral credential on the Ethereum side through zero-knowledge proofs.
With this setup, your BTC always stays on Bitcoin, and you keep the private key. But you can still borrow stablecoins using the collateral credential—entirely via code execution, with no intermediaries.
3. In the past, getting BTC into DeFi meant stripping three layers of skin: wBTC relied on custody, renBTC on bridging, and synthetic BTC on oracles. Interest was already low—after getting peeled by these three layers, there was basically no interest left. But TBV doesn’t require stripping at all; all the interest is yours. $BABY
4. It’s not just lending and borrowing. Babylon also partnered with Aegis to launch fixed-rate lending and borrowing, expected to go live in Q4 this year. Institutions using BTC as collateral fear floating rates the most. Fixed-rate products directly benchmark traditional finance’s repurchase agreements. From earning to borrowing to fixed-rate credit, Babylon is laying a complete BTC-chain financial pipeline. $BABY
Still, stay clear-headed: TBV is an innovation at the narrative level for BTCFi, with high directional certainty. But in the short term there isn’t mainnet data to support it, and the token won’t necessarily pump just because it goes live on testnet. This is a track worth monitoring long-term—not a near-term, next-week payoff.
1. Babylon and Aave partnered, and Aave’s founder publicly stated support for @BabylonLabs_io . This is the first native BTC directly using collateral on Aave V4 to borrow stablecoins—no wrapping, no bridging, and no custody. If this model can run, the way BTCFi works will change. #baby
2. Why does Aave dare to directly accept Babylon’s native BTC? Thanks to their TBV: it can lock BTC into Bitcoin mainnet Taproot UTXOs, and then generate vaultBTC as a collateral credential on the Ethereum side through zero-knowledge proofs.
With this setup, your BTC always stays on Bitcoin, and you keep the private key. But you can still borrow stablecoins using the collateral credential—entirely via code execution, with no intermediaries.
3. In the past, getting BTC into DeFi meant stripping three layers of skin: wBTC relied on custody, renBTC on bridging, and synthetic BTC on oracles. Interest was already low—after getting peeled by these three layers, there was basically no interest left. But TBV doesn’t require stripping at all; all the interest is yours. $BABY
4. It’s not just lending and borrowing. Babylon also partnered with Aegis to launch fixed-rate lending and borrowing, expected to go live in Q4 this year. Institutions using BTC as collateral fear floating rates the most. Fixed-rate products directly benchmark traditional finance’s repurchase agreements. From earning to borrowing to fixed-rate credit, Babylon is laying a complete BTC-chain financial pipeline. $BABY
Still, stay clear-headed: TBV is an innovation at the narrative level for BTCFi, with high directional certainty. But in the short term there isn’t mainnet data to support it, and the token won’t necessarily pump just because it goes live on testnet. This is a track worth monitoring long-term—not a near-term, next-week payoff.
This round of $BTC feels like it’s topped out. I’m getting ready to keep averaging down:
1. ETFs keep bleeding (the biggest short):
Net outflows of 530 million over 7 days, and cumulative outflows of 2.16 billion over 30 days. Institutions are casting their votes with their feet—this is the hardest mid-term suppression.
2. The Fed’s split decision pressures risk appetite. Even though in July they kept the policy rate unchanged at 3.5–3.75%, internal divisions plus inflation warnings suggest it could get tighter. BTC has become the primary target for everyone’s sell-off.
3. Too many retail longs—contrarian indicators are flashing:
The retail long/short ratio has directly hit 66% long / 34% short. Everyone is overwhelmingly bullish. Historically, overcrowded longs like this are prone to get smashed.
4. Regulatory uncertainty:
The SEC has frozen the approval of Nasdaq Bitcoin options and is waiting for the CME legal challenge outcome. The schedule for compliant derivatives has been pushed back, leaving institutions with one less tool.
I think this week will mainly trade sideways around 60–66K, and it could even break below 60K if the clear bill fails. If it drops below, I’ll keep averaging down.
1. ETFs keep bleeding (the biggest short):
Net outflows of 530 million over 7 days, and cumulative outflows of 2.16 billion over 30 days. Institutions are casting their votes with their feet—this is the hardest mid-term suppression.
2. The Fed’s split decision pressures risk appetite. Even though in July they kept the policy rate unchanged at 3.5–3.75%, internal divisions plus inflation warnings suggest it could get tighter. BTC has become the primary target for everyone’s sell-off.
3. Too many retail longs—contrarian indicators are flashing:
The retail long/short ratio has directly hit 66% long / 34% short. Everyone is overwhelmingly bullish. Historically, overcrowded longs like this are prone to get smashed.
4. Regulatory uncertainty:
The SEC has frozen the approval of Nasdaq Bitcoin options and is waiting for the CME legal challenge outcome. The schedule for compliant derivatives has been pushed back, leaving institutions with one less tool.
I think this week will mainly trade sideways around 60–66K, and it could even break below 60K if the clear bill fails. If it drops below, I’ll keep averaging down.
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