Today's Cryptocurrency Market Analysis and Recommendations (December 15, 2025, 18:00)
1. Market Overview
Bitcoin (BTC): Current price $89,869, 24-hour change -2.48%, trading volume approximately $4.78 billion, market cap approximately $1.79 trillion, accounting for 56.8% of the market share
Ethereum (ETH): Current price $3,160, 24-hour change -0.07%, trading volume approximately $1.95 billion, market cap approximately $376.9 billion, accounting for 11.9% of the market share
Overall market: Total cryptocurrency market cap approximately $3.13 trillion, 24-hour change -1.5%, market in extreme fear (Fear and Greed Index 16), over 110,000 people liquidated, losses approximately $271 million
II. Technical Analysis
Key Bitcoin price levels:
Support level:
- $88,000 (strong intraday support, which has been breached)
- $87,500 (intraday low)
- $85,500-$85,900 (Key medium-term support)
Resistance level:
- $90,000 (psychological threshold, strong resistance)
- $90,500-$90,650 (trendline resistance)
- $92,000-$92,500 (Target area for rebound)
Technical Specifications:
- Daily RSI is at 43 (<50, bearish), and the price has broken below multiple moving averages, indicating a short-term downward channel.
- 4-hour candlestick chart: The price is fluctuating between $88,000 and $90,000, repeatedly failing to break through $90,000, indicating heavy selling pressure above.
Ethereum key price levels:
Support level:
- $3,050-$3,070 (4-hour Bollinger Band lower rail)
- $3,000 (a psychological support level)
- $2,960 (strong support zone)
Resistance level:
- $3,170-$3,200 (Intraday resistance range)
- $3,250 (4-hour Bollinger Band upper rail)
- $3,300 (psychological threshold)
Technical Specifications:
- Daily chart: Price is consolidating in the $3,000-$3,200 range, MACD indicator shows a golden cross, short-term bullish momentum is relatively stable.
- 4-hour chart: The EMA trend indicator is contracting, and the price has repeatedly tested the $3,050 support level without breaking it, indicating strong support in this area.
III. Market Sentiment and Funding
Fear & Greed Index: 16 (Extreme Fear Zone), indicating a severe lack of market confidence, with investors generally adopting a wait-and-see approach or leaving the market.
Fund flow:
Bitcoin: Net outflow of approximately $120 million, ETF inflows slowing.
Ethereum: Net outflow of approximately $75 million, with funds shifting from mainstream cryptocurrencies to stablecoins.
- Stablecoin market: $230 million in inflows reflect strong risk aversion.
On-chain data:
- Bitcoin on-chain transaction volume decreased by 23%, and the number of active addresses decreased by 18%, indicating a significant decline in market participation.
Ethereum on-chain transaction volume remained relatively stable, while the total value locked in DeFi protocols increased slightly, indicating that some funds are shifting to the application layer.
IV. Important Event Reminder
1. Cooling Expectations of a Fed Policy Shift: Market expectations for a rate cut in early 2026 have weakened, putting pressure on risk assets across the board, with Bitcoin, as a high-risk asset, bearing the brunt.
2. Technical Breakout Observation:
Bitcoin: Watch whether it can reclaim the $88,000 level. If it continues to fall below this level, it may test the $85,500-$86,000 area.
Ethereum: $3,000 is a key psychological level; a break below this level could accelerate the decline to $2,900-$2,950.
3. Tightening liquidity at year-end: With Christmas approaching, market liquidity will further decrease, price volatility may intensify, and slippage risk will increase.
V. Operational Recommendations
Bitcoin Strategy:
Short-term (1-3 days):
- Primarily range trading: Buy low and sell high within the $88,000-$90,000 range.
- Sell short at $89,800-$90,000, with a stop loss at $90,300 and a target of $88,500-$88,000.
- Buy at $87,800-$88,000, stop loss at $87,500, target $88,800-$89,000.
- Position control: Each transaction should not exceed 20% of the total capital; quick entry and exit are required; chasing highs and selling lows is strictly prohibited.
Mid-term (1-4 weeks):
If the price falls below $87,500 without a significant rebound, it is recommended to remain on the sidelines or consider a small short position with a target of $85,500-$86,000 and a stop-loss at $88,000.
If the price breaks through and holds above $90,500, a small long position can be taken, with a target of $92,000-$92,500 and a stop-loss at $90,000.
Ethereum strategy:
Support level buying strategy:
Buy in batches within the $3,050-$3,070 range, with a stop-loss below $3,000 and a target of $3,150-$3,170.
If the price falls below $3,000, suspend buying and wait for stabilization signals. Strong support lies at $2,960.
Resistance level strategy:
- Reduce positions when the price rebounds to the $3,170-$3,200 range; chasing the price above $3,250 is not recommended.
If it breaks through and holds above $3,200, it could reach $3,250-$3,300. Take profits around $3,280.
VI. Risk Warning
1. Liquidity Risk: Market liquidity dries up at the end of the year, price volatility intensifies, and slippage risk increases significantly. Leveraged traders should be especially cautious.
2. Risk of accelerated breakdown:
If Bitcoin falls below $87,500, it could accelerate its decline to $85,500-$86,000.
If Ethereum falls below $3,000, it could quickly drop to the $2,900-$2,950 range.
3. Leverage Risk: Given the current market volatility, high-leverage contracts carry an extremely high risk of liquidation. It is strongly advised to avoid contracts altogether and instead engage in spot trading or low-leverage operations, with strict stop-loss orders in place.
4. Macroeconomic Risks: Changes in expectations regarding a shift in Federal Reserve policy and geopolitical conflicts could trigger further market volatility.
VII. Summary and Recommendations
Short-term trading: Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are in a weak, volatile phase. It is recommended to focus on range trading, with strict stop-loss orders, avoiding chasing highs and lows, and limiting single-trade positions to no more than 20%.
Position allocation:
Bitcoin: 40-50% of total position, built in batches between $87,800 and $88,000, and reduced in batches above $90,000.
Ethereum: Allocate 10-20% of total position, buy in the $3,050-$3,070 range, and take profits above $3,170.
- Cash: Keep 30-40% and wait for the market direction to become clearer or for a better entry opportunity to emerge.
Ultimate advice: Avoid leverage, don't chase highs, and don't blindly buy the dip. Patiently wait for the market to choose a direction before making any decisions. With significant market uncertainty at the end of the year, preserving principal is paramount. Consider allocating some funds to safe-haven assets like gold to hedge against risk.
