Is the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December almost a foregone conclusion? The latest data shows that the probability of a rate cut has soared to 87.6%, with the market generally expecting a reduction of 25 basis points at the monetary policy meeting on December 9-10. The main reason is the weak job market—September's unemployment rate rose to 4.44%, increasing for three consecutive months, and several dovish officials have been vocal in supporting a rate cut. #美联储重启降息步伐

The easing of inflationary pressures has also provided room for a rate cut, with the core inflation in November at #cpi year-on-year rising by 3.3%, getting closer to the 2% target. Market expectations have experienced a dramatic reversal, with the probability of a rate cut in mid-November briefly falling below 50%, but now it has returned to a high level. If the rate cut materializes, the federal funds rate will drop to 3.50%-3.75%, and there may be two more cuts in 2026, but hawkish officials still have doubts, and everything will depend on future data performance. #美联储何时降息？