As the liquidation of $25 billion worth of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) approaches, Bitcoin (BTC) investors may need to prepare for potential price stagnation or even decline. Chris J Terry, founding partner of BTCdata, recently expressed concerns about the impact of the massive sell-off of GBTC on the price of cryptocurrencies. He said on social media: "It looks like BTC price will continue to be flat/down until GBTC is liquidated, with $25B of selling in the coming weeks."
However, Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz disagreed with Terry's analysis. He said that while some investors may sell GBTC, many investors will move their assets into other exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Novogratz specifically mentioned his preference for the Invesco BTCO ETF, which has an annual fee of 0.39%, or $39 per year on a $10,000 investment.
Novogratz also highlighted the broader impact of the GBTC liquidation, stressing that traditional investors, especially baby boomers, will now have easier access to the cryptocurrency market. He pointed out the potential for increased leverage in Bitcoin exposure and predicted the future trend of Bitcoin, saying that despite the upcoming sell-off of GBTC, the price of Bitcoin will rise in the coming months.
Nansen Chief Research Analyst Aurelie Barthere said in a recent interview that she expects ETFs with lower fees to attract more inflows in the short term. She said the competitive landscape among Bitcoin spot ETF providers will depend on factors such as reputation, scale, existing business scope and management fees. JPMorgan analysts also predicted that the success of these newly created ETFs will depend on fees and liquidity. Given the high 1.5% fees associated with GBTC, they expect the Bitcoin Trust to see large outflows. In addition, speculative investors who have purchased discounted GBTC shares in the secondary market over the past year expect the discount to the net asset value (NAV) after conversion will be eliminated, which may further promote GBTC liquidations. This could lead to about $3 billion exiting GBTC and flowing into the newly launched ETF.
Analysts expect outflows to reach $5-10 billion if GBTC fails to reduce its fees to the 0.25% level set by issuers such as BlackRock. These views and forecasts all demonstrate the uncertainty and complexity of the market's possible impact on GBTC liquidation. Investors need to pay close attention to market dynamics and make wise investment decisions to maintain a robust portfolio during this wave of changes.
If you often chase the ups and downs in the cryptocurrency circle, are confused and have no direction in trading, keep losing money, and don’t have the latest news in the cryptocurrency circle to grasp the current market sector heat, if you don’t want to miss the latest bull market trends, our small circle is waiting for you!