What happened this Sunday?

Last week we saw BTC fall to $19550 after the SVB bank failed. However, this Sunday, the United States government guaranteed that Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) customers would have access to all of their deposits starting from Monday, March 13th, as part of a plan to mitigate the effects of the bank's failure on the American financial system, which positively impacted the market. However, there are several things we need to keep in mind:

  • The market moves in waves, contrary to what many people think, so there is nothing new graphically.

  • If the Fed decides to ease measures to safeguard the banking system, volatile markets could rise significantly. However, we should not forget that this will worsen the current crisis and is not positive in the long run.

  • Technical analysis work with probabilities and does not dictate what happens economically. Therefore, we should always protect ourselves and be attentive.

Analyzing the daily chart, we can see that after last week's drop, the price held in the 0.618 Fibonacci region. Losing this region would indicate that we were back in a downward trend, and we should expect a pullback first to decide where we would go.

Looking at the 4h chart with Sunday's rise and also using Fibonacci to assess whether we are now safe for a new upward trend, we can see that the BTC price also held in the 0.618 region, which is the strongest region and is also the retest of our diamond. In a normal scenario, this would be the ideal place to short to seek profits at $18900. However, we do not know what will come out of this Fed meeting, so we will have to wait for the $23110 region to be broken or rejected, and with fundamental analysis, we can make decisions about what to do with our money.

Now tell me, would you go long now or wait for confirmations?

The best way to operate in this market is studying, no trader is giving signals or commenting about how he reacts to the market, each candle changes the scenario, each candle needs confirmations, then, if the week is positive we will rise to $30k, if it is negative, $12k in a few weeks, this you can charge later!