๐บ๐ธ USA to attack Iran?
According to Axios, the likelihood of a military operation against Iran has risen to 90%. This is allegedly not about a pinpoint strike, but a possible multi-week campaign in conjunction with Israel.
Tankers, transporters, and AWACS planes are being redeployed to the region โ logistics for prolonged actions.
โ๏ธ Why is this important for the markets?
The main risk is the Strait of Hormuz.
About 20 million barrels of oil pass through it daily โ ~20% of global consumption. Any restrictions = instant price shock.
Oil is already reacting: +3% on the news.
๐ Chain reaction
Oil up โ fuel and logistics become more expensive โ inflation rises โ
The Federal Reserve finds it harder to lower rates โ pressure on stocks and crypto.
Additionally: up to 80% of Iranian oil goes to China. Cutting off the flow is not only an energy blow but also a geopolitical one.
Markets are not afraid of the war itself.
They are afraid of inflationary shocks and rate disruptions.
#iran #oil #Geopolitics #Macro #MISTERROBOT
Subscribe if you want to understand how geopolitics drives capital.
According to Axios, the likelihood of a military operation against Iran has risen to 90%. This is allegedly not about a pinpoint strike, but a possible multi-week campaign in conjunction with Israel.
Tankers, transporters, and AWACS planes are being redeployed to the region โ logistics for prolonged actions.
โ๏ธ Why is this important for the markets?
The main risk is the Strait of Hormuz.
About 20 million barrels of oil pass through it daily โ ~20% of global consumption. Any restrictions = instant price shock.
Oil is already reacting: +3% on the news.
๐ Chain reaction
Oil up โ fuel and logistics become more expensive โ inflation rises โ
The Federal Reserve finds it harder to lower rates โ pressure on stocks and crypto.
Additionally: up to 80% of Iranian oil goes to China. Cutting off the flow is not only an energy blow but also a geopolitical one.
Markets are not afraid of the war itself.
They are afraid of inflationary shocks and rate disruptions.
#iran #oil #Geopolitics #Macro #MISTERROBOT
Subscribe if you want to understand how geopolitics drives capital.
