The trading of the yellow metal against the digital dollar (Tether) has experienced sharp fluctuations that put traders on high alert. After a vertical parabolic surge that left no room for breath, the price entered a violent correction phase that revealed support and resistance levels that will determine the fate of the trend in the coming days.
The peak trap and the bottom shock
When the price touched the peak of 5,625, an overwhelming sense of optimism prevailed, but the market quickly dealt a harsh blow to late buyers, as the price sharply declined to test the 4,444 level. This number is not just a random number, but a "demand zone" that proved that major buyers (whales) are still putting their weight at lower levels, preventing a complete collapse of the bullish trend.
Technical reading: confusion is the name of the game
Gold is currently trading around 5,028 levels, reflecting a state of "fragile balance." We observe the following from the chart:
Momentum contraction: The Japanese candlesticks have started to shrink, which is technically referred to as "price compression." This pressure is usually preceded by a price explosion in one direction.
Trading volume indicator: There is a clear decline in volumes after the large selling wave, which means that the "bears" have temporarily exhausted their selling power, awaiting a new signal.
Moving averages: The price is wavering above the fast averages, making the 5,000 level a psychological pivot; staying above it maintains hopes for a rise, while breaking it could open the door for a decline again.
Next scenario: Where is the compass heading?
We are now faced with two paths, no third option:
Positive scenario: Breaking above 5,160 and stabilizing above it, which will open the way for a retest of the historic peak at 5,600, supported by clear accumulation shown by the OBV indicator.
Negative scenario: Breaking the nearby support at 4,900, which could lead to a "liquidation" wave that forces the price to revisit the 4,600 area as the first corrective station.
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