Important information in the cryptocurrency circle within 24 hours:
1. The total market value of cryptocurrency exceeds 1.9 trillion US dollars;
2. Grayscale plans to launch Bitcoin Covered Call ETF;
3. USDT market value exceeded US$96 billion, setting a new historical high;
4. The trading volume of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF reached US$4.6 billion on the first day of listing;
5. Source: UBS will allow some customers to trade spot Bitcoin ETF;
6. GBTC’s negative premium narrowed to near zero for the first time since February 2021;
7. ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF’s daily trading volume exceeded US$2 billion, setting a record high;
8. JPMorgan Chase: Spot Bitcoin ETF may attract up to US$36 billion in funds from existing crypto investment tools;
9. Ric Edelman: Registered investment advisors will invest $150 billion in spot Bitcoin ETFs within two to three years.
BTC Market Analysis
Yesterday, we analyzed the position liquidation map and found that there are a large number of long positions below! However, there are also many short positions above the price. To liquidate long positions, a lot of decline is needed, and to liquidate short positions, only a few thousand points are needed to take advantage of the trend! Therefore, we have also given the conclusion that the price must first rise to 48,000 to liquidate short positions, and then crash the market!
Yesterday's market was just as we expected. It first rose to clear the shorts above, but because of the good news of Bitcoin spot ETH, it became easier to rise, and it rose directly to 48,900, almost breaking through 49,000! But then there was a rapid decline, and it fell directly back to around 46,000!
So how should we view the current market situation? Will it crash the market?
Judging from the daily chart, there are still many short positions on the upper side. Because of the rapid decline in the market, the number of short positions has increased again!
There are still more bulls in the weekly and monthly lines! So I now think that if the price fluctuates little, it will most likely rebound and continue to harvest shorts, and then rebound, there will be a volatile market, and the volatile market is the most common. Generally, there are volatile markets before a big drop. Generally, the volatile market will not go up and will become weaker and weaker before it falls!
Therefore, the probability of a continued rebound is still quite high, and now it is also an upward trend. It is definitely easier for the dealer to push up the price, but to smash the market, more chips are needed!
Since we are optimistic that the price will eventually plummet to around 40,000 to reap the profits of the longs, when can we go short?
Then I think we still have to look for signals from the K-line. At present, I think the short-term price is also building an upward channel. The most stable way is to wait for the price to fall below this channel. It is best to fall to the bottom of the channel, oscillate, and then rebound weakly. In this case, it may plummet directly. If it falls slowly, it will be difficult to harvest the bulls below.
Because the price is falling slowly, everyone will start to short. The bulls below will find something wrong and the price is weak, so they will withdraw. This makes it more difficult to fall. Of course, if you also have this view, you can try it slowly now. When the signal is clearer later, you can add more positions.
As I said just now, it is obviously easier to harvest the shorts on the upper side now, so you must be patient when placing short orders during such a big drop!
