To this day, there are still friends who do not know the operating mechanism of the SEC. They think that the SEC does not need to care about institutions including Mu Mujie, and only needs to safeguard the interests of large institutions. This idea is very wrong. The actual situation is that if If Sister Mu Mu’s application was rejected on January 10 (Beijing time on the 11th), then the probability of approval on BlackRock’s final day on March 15 must be less than 50%.

Because this shows that the SEC has found a new reason, and this reason must be different from the content in the Grayscale prosecution. The most important thing is that if this reason applies to (rejection of) Sister Mu, then it also applies to BlackRock. Invesco, Franklin Templeton, this is why I will say that if the wooden sister is not passed on January 10, then the probability of BlackRock’s success will be very low. For the American judicial system, wooden There is essentially no difference between Sister and BlackRock.

Of course, it’s not that it’s completely impossible, but the possibility will be very low, because the SEC has no way to explain that if it reverses its view within two months, the SEC’s lawsuit with Grayscale is not over yet. There is a probability that every institution will file a lawsuit with the SEC.

So for#Bitcoinspot ETFs, January 10th is almost the last hurdle. If you pass it, there is a high probability that you can pass it. There are some minor problems in the details that can be corrected, but if you fail, you can count on March If we pass it again in the future, the probability is too low, and if BlackRock fails to pass on March 15, then there is basically no need to read it later. The probability of passing is less than 20%.

this is the truth.